Trends-CA

Broadcom Q4 2025 Earnings Preview: AI Momentum Meets Valuation Risk

is expected to post fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $17.5 billion and adjusted EPS of $1.87. Its shares are up nearly 76% this year, far outpacing the ’s 23% gain, and the company has landed $10 billion in AI orders from a new customer, strengthening its AI revenue outlook for fiscal 2026.

The company has remained strong since its latest earnings, and several factors could support continued upside. Its diversified, high-margin portfolio across semiconductors, infrastructure software, and networking reduces reliance on any one market. Demand remains solid from cloud providers, data centers, and telecoms investing in AI and next-gen networks.

Broadcom’s scale and integrated supply chain strengthen its competitive position and margins, while robust cash flow, disciplined acquisitions, and consistent dividends/buybacks reinforce investor confidence.

Key highlights:

  • Several of Broadcom’s peers in processors and graphics chips have already reported Q3 results, providing some read-through. posted 1.1% year-over-year revenue growth, beating estimates by 1.9%, while reported a 10% increase, topping forecasts by 4.8%. Despite these beats, Qorvo’s shares fell 7.7% after earnings, and Qualcomm’s stock was largely flat. Overall sentiment in the segment has been positive, with share prices up about 7% on average over the past month, while Broadcom has gained 13.2% over the same period and heads into earnings with an average analyst price target of $412.02 versus its current price of $405.66.
  • Analysts at Bank of America and Morgan Stanley recently raised their price targets on Broadcom but cautioned about long-term risks. They highlighted that Alphabet’s Google is aiming to design future generations of its AI chips in-house, instead of collaborating with Broadcom as it does now. If Google succeeds and eventually markets its own chip designs to other Broadcom customers, it could threaten Broadcom’s market share.
  • Broadcom’s semiconductor business spans multiple categories, including networking, broadband, server storage, wireless, and industrial. The company is also a leading player in high-end AI application-specific integrated circuits (AI ASICs), working with major technology firms to design custom AI chips.
  • On its September earnings call, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan said the company had secured $10 billion in AI orders from a new qualified customer, a win he expects will “significantly” enhance its AI revenue outlook for fiscal 2026.
  • Broadcom is strategically positioned in Ethernet networking for AI with new products such as the Tomahawk 6 (a 102 Tbps switch) and the Jericho 4 Ethernet fabric router (51.2 Tbps), targeting the demanding networking needs of large AI clusters. It has also successfully integrated VMware and launched VMware Cloud Foundation 9.0, a fully integrated cloud platform for running any workload, including AI, offering enterprises a genuine alternative to public cloud.

Analysts Expectation:

  • HSBC reiterated a Buy rating and $535 price target on Broadcom (AVGO), saying the market is still underestimating its ASIC opportunity. They highlight strong TPU-driven demand from Alphabet’s Gemini 3 launch, which helped Broadcom shares rally about 15% vs 4% for the S&P 500. While Street estimates for FY26–27 ASIC revenue have risen modestly, HSBC’s forecasts remain roughly 40% higher, and they expect Broadcom management to raise ASIC revenue guidance again at the 4Q FY25 earnings call.
  • Oppenheimer reiterated its Outperform rating on Broadcom and raised its price target to $435 from $400.
  • Mizuho analysts reaffirmed their Outperform rating on and maintained a $400.00 price target.

AVGO Q4 2025 earnings after-market (4:15 pm ET) Thursday, Dec 11, 2025.

AVGO Earnings Statistics since Q3 2012

EPS

1W % move post earnings

2W % move post earnings

1M % move post earnings

BEATS 49

2.95%

1.23%

5.29%

MISSES 2

-0.67%

-1.80%

-8.02%

Analyst Ratings

SOURCE

BUY

HOLD

SELL

LSEG

47

2

0

TipRanks

24

1

0

Earnings Expectation

EPS

1.87 USD

Revenue

17.47 BUSD

Option Market Statistics:

Technical Analysis Perspective:

  • AVGO has been trading within an ascending channel since its Q3 2025 earnings.
  • The stock is on track to test the channel top around $429–$430 this week, rising roughly $2.50 per week.
  • Base case: AVGO extends its post-earnings rally toward $429–$430.
  • Alternate case: Shares pull back to $397–$396 before resuming the move toward $429–$430.

Weekly Candlestick Chart

AVGO Seasonality Chart:

Since 2006, AVGO has finished December higher 82% of the time, with an average gain of 9.2%, and January higher 63% of the time, with an average gain of 2.0%.

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Ali Merchant is a seasoned financial market professional with expertise in Technical Analysis, Treasury & Capital Markets, Trading, Sales, Research, Training, Fund & Relationship Management, Fintech, and Digitalization. He is a CMT charter holder and an active member of CMT Association, USA, American Association of Professional Technical Analysts, and CMT Association of Canada. He has worked on various roles and organizations in North America and the GCC, such as ABN Amro bank, Thomson Reuters, Refinitiv, MAK Allen & Day Capital Partners, and Bridge Information Systems.

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