Griffin Wong previews tonight’s game between the LA Clippers and the Houston Rockets with his favorite player prop bets.
Maybe — just maybe — Chris Paul was the problem for the LA Clippers. In the three games since the franchise legend was unceremoniously dumped in the middle of the night, the Clippers are 1-2 but have looked slightly more competitive, losing by just three to a fully healthy Minnesota Timberwolves team in their most recent game on Saturday.
LA’s competitiveness will really be tested Thursday, as it returns to action with a game against the Houston Rockets, who currently trail only the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder in a stacked Western Conference.
The Rockets are 9.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-410 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 222.5. The Clippers are +320 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll lay out my three favorite prop bets for tonight’s contest.
Kawhi Leonard O22.5 Points (-120)
LA has won just once in the eight games since Leonard returned from an ankle sprain — tied for the fewest in the league across that span — but the results haven’t been Fun Guy’s fault. He’s scored 23 or more points in half of his contests after returning from injury despite playing on a minutes restriction for several of them, and he’s averaging 26.1 points per game on 48-38-98 shooting splits in that span. He only scored 20 points in the Clippers’ win over the Atlanta Hawks last Wednesday, but that was a result of an anomalously poor shooting performance (seven-for-21 from the field and one-for-seven from beyond the arc).
Houston won’t make it easy, as it ranks second in defensive rating this season and has also allowed the fewest rebounds, but that’s at least in part a function of luck: the Rockets have allowed the fifth-most wide-open three-pointers and have been fortunate that opponents have converted at the 11th-lowest clip. Plus, despite being the league’s best rebounding team, they still have allowed the most second-chance points, and offensive rebounding has traditionally been one of LA’s strengths. He’ll probably be guarded primarily by Jabari Smith Jr., whom he’s found some success against in recent seasons (16 points on six-for-10 shooting across two matchups in 2023-24).
Alperen Şengün to Record a Double-Double (+102)
The Turkish star has missed each of his last two games with an illness, but after the team’s four-day break, he’s been cleared to play tonight and should have no restrictions. This season, he’s taken yet another leap, recording 11 double-doubles in 19 starts, including in each of his last two games. Unlike most centers, whose only chances at double-doubles involve points and rebounds, one of Şengün’s double-doubles involved points and assists, and he’s dished out at least eight dimes on five other occasions. Only he, Luka Dončić, Jalen Johnson, and Nikola Jokić have averaged at least 23 points, nine rebounds, and seven assists per game: pretty good company to have.
Just as Şengün has been excellent in every facet of the game — even defensively, where he’s been one of just 15 players to average at least one steal and one block per game — the Clippers have struggled in every facet of the game, even if they’ve been somewhat more sound since Leonard returned. Across the last eight games, LA has conceded the 13th-most points, 11th-fewest boards, and 15th-fewest assists, but even its boards have been contested at a lower rate than Houston’s have. Plus, the Rockets love to force their opponents into non-restricted paint tries, and the Clippers have shot the 13th-lowest percentage from that range since Leonard’s return.
Amen Thompson 2+ Steals (+111)
Thompson’s raw defensive numbers (1.4 steals and 0.5 blocks per game) aren’t quite as impressive as they were last season (1.4 steals and 1.3 blocks), when he finished fifth in Defensive Player of the Year voting. However, his all-around defensive impact is still as elite as ever — Houston’s overall defense is 5.4 points per 100 possessions worse with him off the court — and he’s recorded a pair of two-swipe games in his past three. He’s especially active in the passing lanes, as all five of his steals in his last three games have come off of bad passes.
Thompson’s ball-hawking ways make him a bad matchup for LA, which has had a persistent turnover issue, coughing it up the 11th-most times this season. The Clippers’ offense is very James Harden-centric, and only Luka Dončić has committed more turnovers this season than Harden, who has averaged 4.3 turnovers per game since Leonard’s return. It’s worth noting that, while LA’s heliocentrism wouldn’t typically be the best steals matchup for a passing-lane menace, the Dallas Mavericks and Sacramento Kings both pass less frequently than the Clippers do, and Thompson got two steals against both of them. He also had a two-steal game against LA last season.
