12/12/25 09:53
Oil inches lower on oversupply concerns, on track for weekly loss
– Reuters
Oil prices inched lower on Friday and were on track for a weekly decline as investors focussed on a supply glut and potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal, which outweighed concerns over Venezuelan supply disruptions.
Brent crude futures were down 14 US cents, or 0.2 per cent, to US$61.14 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 3 US cents at US$57.57. Both benchmarks fell by about 1.5 per cent on Thursday.
While there might be sporadic support from hits to supply, the general market mood reflects supply exceeding demand, and any rallies are expected to be brief, said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga.
Brent and WTI have lost more than 4 per cent this week. International Energy Agency forecasts published on Thursday indicated that global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day next year – a volume equal to almost 4% of world demand.
12/12/25 09:35
Mining stocks lead TSX higher
– Reuters
Canada’s main stock index opened higher on Friday, with mining shares leading gains at the close of a week filled with highly anticipated central bank meetings.
At 9:30 a.m. ET, Toronto’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.24 per cent at 31,737.44 points.
In New York, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq opened lower on Friday as Broadcom’s latest results added to concerns about an AI-fueled bubble, dampening optimism stoked by the Federal Reserve’s less-hawkish-than-expected signals on 2026 rate cuts.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 102.80 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 48,806.81, the S&P 500 lost 10.85 points, or 0.16 per cent, to 6,890.37 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 105.00 points, or 0.43 per cent, to 23,491.12.
Broadcom (AVGO-Q) slid 7.9 per cent in early trade after the chipmaker warned of slimmer future margins on its AI system sales, despite projecting strong quarterly revenue. This sharpened worries about the profitability of surging AI investments.
Vancouver-based Lululemon Athletica (LULU-Q) jumped 10.7 per cent after the apparel maker said that CEO Calvin McDonald was leaving the company and raised its annual profit forecast.
12/12/25 09:01
Lululemon set to soar on CEO shakeup, better-than-anticipated results
– David Leeder
Open this photo in gallery:
Lululemon signs are displayed outside a retail location in the Seaport District, Dec. 13, 2024, in Boston.Charles Krupa/The Associated Press
Shares of Vancouver-based Lululemon Athletica Inc. (LULU-Q) are poised to soar after the late Thursday announcement chief executive officer Calvin McDonald will step down at the end of January.
Mr. McDonald, who has led the athleisure retailer since 2018, has been struggling to reassure investors amid a slowdown in its U.S. business and as its stock price plunged by 50 per cent since the beginning of the year.
Lululemon has hired an executive search firm and is looking for its next CEO, the company announced Thursday. Mr. McDonald will leave the role on Jan. 31, 2026, and will also step away from the company’s board of directors but will continue as a senior adviser until March 31.
The announcement overshadowed the release of third-quarter financial results that exceeded the Street’s expectations. That included earnings per share of US$2.59, topping the consensus projection of US$2.21, driven by higher gross profit dollars and share repurchases.
“Results were better than feared and FY25 revenue and guidance moves higher at the midpoint,” said Stifel analyst Peter McGoldrick in a client note. “We continue to believe the stock will remain range-bound until the core Americas business stabilizes; continued challenges (Americas negative 5-per-cent cc comp vs. negative 3 per cent cc in 2Q25) with concentration around shopping holidays and promotional seeking behavior points to uneven trends in demand, which we expect persist into CY26. We expect the forthcoming leadership change catalyzes investor interest in the stock, though believe the structural market conditions driving challenging results (scaling competition, loyal customer attrition) will take time to correct.”
The company’s shares have halved in value this year as it lost ground to newer rivals including Alo Yoga and Vuori in the U.S., as well as to lower-priced styles from established players such as Nike and Gap.
Lululemon’s forward price-to-earnings multiple, a common benchmark for valuing stocks, is 14.66, compared to 31.26 for Nike and Abercrombie & Fitch’s ratio of 10.8, according to LSEG data.
With files from Susan Krashinsky Robertson and Reuters
12/12/25 08:01
BMO economics finds surprising household liquidity
– Scott Barlow
BMO senior economist Robert Kavcic found that Canadian households are a lot more liquid than the heavy debt levels would suggest.
My strong suspicion is that these assets are not distributed equally among the populace,
“Canadian households are flush with liquid assets, another strike against those deeply concerned about conditions going into 2026. Canadians now hold almost $260 in liquid financial assets (e.g., cash, bonds and stocks, excluding pension and insurance assets) for every $100 in financial liabilities (e.g., mortgage debt). The bull market in equities is obviously helping, but so have sturdy income growth and savings. Importantly, not only is there some wealth effect here, but it is also going to help cushion households renewing into higher-rate mortgages through 2026 (the peak of the renewal wave is around mid-year). Canadians can lean on these liquid assets to reduce outstanding balances or support higher monthly payments. There are a few sidebars to explore further. Wealth in liquid financial assets is arguably more accessible than a fixed asset like housing, which has stagnated for most. Also, the distribution of increases in financial assets has, of course, been skewed to the higher end of the income spectrum”
12/12/25 07:45
Nasdaq, S&P 500 futures slip on Broadcom’s AI margin warning; Lululemon surges on CEO news
– Reuters
Futures tracking the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq slipped on Friday as Broadcom’s latest results reignited fears of an AI-fueled bubble and tempered the optimism sparked by a less hawkish commentary than expected from the Federal Reserve on 2026 rate cuts.
At 7:00 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were up 59 points, or 0.12 per cent, S&P 500 E-minis were down 15.25 points, or 0.22 per cent, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 162.25 points, or 0.63 per cent.
Broadcom (AVGO-Q) shares fell nearly 6 per cent in premarket trading after the chipmaker warned of lower future margins on its AI system sales, despite forecasting strong quarterly revenue, deepening concerns about the profitability of investments in the technology.
Other chip stocks including Advanced Micro Devices (AMD-Q) and Nvidia (NVDA-Q) lost 0.3 per cent and 1.4 per cent, respectively, a day after Oracle (ORCL-N) unveiled a weak forecast.
Shares of the cloud company fell 1.2 per cent after logging its biggest daily drop since January in the previous session.
Despite the gloomy overhang, the S&P 500, the Dow and the Russell 2000 all closed at record highs on Thursday and were on track for weekly gains after the Fed trimmed borrowing costs and delivered a less hawkish outlook than investors had feared.
Among others, Vancouver’s Lululemon Athletica (LULU-Q) jumped 9.8 per cent after the apparel maker said that CEO Calvin McDonald was leaving the company and raised its annual profit forecast.
12/12/25 07:35
Goldman Sachs new chief strategist reveals his S&P 500 outlook for 2026
– Scott Barlow
Goldman Sachs’ new chief U.S. equity strategist Ben Snider (the widely regarded David Kostin retired) published his S&P 500 targets for 2026.
The details underscore the incredible dominance of the tech hyperscalers in terms of both size and profit generation,
“We forecast S&P 500 EPS growth of 12 per cent year/year in 2026 (to $305) and 10 per cent in 2027 (to $336). Our estimates incorporate GS macro forecasts for solid US GDP growth and a weaker US dollar alongside GS equity analyst forecasts for continued earnings strength among the largest technology stocks. Our 12-per-cent EPS growth forecast for 2026 combines revenue growth of 7 per cent with 70 bp of profit margin expansion. The seven largest stocks in the S&P 500 (NVDA, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, AVGO, META) account for 36 per cent of S&P 500 market cap and 26 per cent of earnings and should contribute 46 per cent of index EPS growth in 2026. This represents a decline from their 50-per-cent contribution in 2025 as earnings growth for the S&P 493 accelerates from 7 per cent in 2025 to 9 per cent in 2026. The mega-caps’ above-average sales growth and profit margins provide a mechanical tailwind to margins for the aggregate S&P 500. For example, if NVDA sales grow by 50 per cent in 2026 and its margins remain flat, the S&P 500 profit margin would rise by 30 bp from that boost alone. We expect AI-driven productivity gains will lift S&P 500 EPS by 0.4 per cent in 2026 and 1.5 per cent in 2027”
12/12/25 07:23
Have Canadian bank stocks reached their peak?
– Scott Barlow
CIBC Capital Markets bank analyst Paul Holden is struggling to see upside in major bank stocks,
“The banks reported another strong set of EPS beats with FQ4, making it four for four on the year. We remain positive on the outlook based on excess capital, conservative credit provisioning, an expectation for improving economic conditions into F2027 and potential for regulatory capital relief. However, we are increasingly challenged to paint significant upside for the group given valuation multiples and rising consensus estimates. Our two Outperformers are TD and BMO, where we believe consensus estimates remain low and where relative valuation multiples look reasonable … Key themes for F2026. F2025 results got a huge lift from capital markets, wealth management and NIM [net interest margin] expansion. We expect the primary drivers of F2026 EPS growth will be somewhat different: NIM expansion (again), expense efficiencies and capital deployment. We think our two Outperformers are well positioned across these drivers”
12/12/25 07:23
RBC strategist warns of crude volatility
– Scott Barlow
RBC Capital Markets head of global commodity strategy Helima Croft expects the U.S. to force a regime change in Venezuela that will eventually affect global crude markets,
“We are currently watching the U.S. military buildup off the coast of Venezuela and believe a U.S.-led regime change operation is likely in the cards in the coming weeks or Q1’26 … Even if President Maduro leaves Venezuela voluntarily, we think it will be a protracted process before the country sees significant production gains due to the decades -long decline of the sector. Removing all sanctions could in principle lead to a relatively swift increase of several hundred kb/d, but anything beyond that would require enormous investment and a stable operating environment. They also warned that the military could play the spoiler role in a contested power situation since it plays such a large role in the operations of PDVSA [state-owned crude and natural gas producer] —as well as the broader economy”
12/12/25 07:03
Friday’s analyst upgrades and downgrades
– David Leeder
Analysts at TD Cowen think “2026 could be real estate’s turn to outperform.”
“Following two years of wide underperformance comparable to 1998-1999 (which led to four years of subsequent outperformance), REITs increasingly appear ready to regain some market leadership,” said the firm’s real estate equity team, led by Sam Damiani and Jonathan Kelcher.
“Macro changes are hard to predict, but REITs offer attractive and stable yields and growth while biding time until the next catalyst for a bounce in valuations.”
Stocks mentioned include: Allied Properties REIT, Athabasca Oil Corp., AtkinsRéalis Group Inc., Boardwalk REIT, Bombardier Inc., BSR REIT, CAE Inc., Canadian Apartment Properties REIT, Cenovus Energy Inc., CN Rail, CPKC, Cargojet Inc., Dollarama Inc., Empire Co. Ltd., Gran Tierra Energy Inc., Killam Apartment REIT, Minto Apartment REIT, Mullen Group Ltd., Northview Residential REIT, Stantec Inc. Stella-Jones Inc., Suncor Energy Inc., TerraVest Industries Inc., TFI International Inc., Transcontinental Inc., WSP Global Inc., and Zedcor Inc.
12/12/25 06:30
Cannabis stocks surge on report Trump seeks to ease restrictions
– Reuters
Open this photo in gallery:
Staff work in a marijuana grow room at Canopy Growth’s Tweed facility in Smiths Falls, Ont. on Thursday, Aug. 23, 2018.Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press
Shares of cannabis companies jumped on Friday after the Washington Post reported U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to push the government to dramatically loosen federal restrictions on marijuana.
U.S.-listed shares of Tilray Brands (TLRY-Q, TLRY-T) gained 28 per cent, while SNDL (SNDL-Q), Canopy Growth (CGC-Q, WEED-T) and ETF AdvisorShares Pure US Cannabis (MSOS-A) were up between 13.5 per cent and 32.5 per cent in premarket trading.
According to the report from Thursday, Mr. Trump plans to direct agencies to reclassify marijuana as a Schedule III drug, reducing oversight of the plant and its derivatives to the same level as some common prescription painkillers and other drugs.
“We believe this would open the door for pharmaceutical companies to seek approval for more cannabis products, which could then be dispensed the same as other prescription drugs,” TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said in a note.
Mr. Trump’s administration has been looking to reclassify marijuana as a less dangerous drug, a shift that could ease criminal penalties and reshape the industry through potentially lower taxes and by making it easier to secure funding.
Funding remains one of the biggest challenges for cannabis producers, as federal restrictions keep most banks and institutional investors out of the sector, forcing pot producers to turn to costly loans or alternative lenders.
12/12/25 06:13
Broadcom falls as margin pressures add to AI payoff jitters
– Reuters
Broadcom shares (AVGO-Q) fell nearly 6 per cent before the market open on Friday after the chipmaker said its margins would fall due to a higher mix of AI revenue, adding to worries about the payout from AI.
Investor optimism over the nascent technology has recently cooled amid bubble concerns, wiping out hundreds of billions in tech market value since late October. Adding to the worries, Oracle’s massive spending and weak forecasts fanned doubts over how quickly the big bets on AI will pay off, sparking a tech selloff in the previous session.
“Right now, the spending intentions still seem so big by so many, hitting that panic button is premature,” said Ben Reitzes, analyst at Melius Research.
Broadcom’s margins will be affected throughout the year by the revenue mix of infrastructure, software and semiconductors, while it has a US$73-billion backlog that it anticipates shipping over the next 18 months.
“We attribute the selloff to commentary on gross margin dilution from AI chips. We aren’t concerned with this, given that these chips are operating-margin-accretive,” said analysts at Morningstar.
Broadcom has gained from strong demand for its custom chips amid a major data center buildout, securing a growing foothold in an industry led by Nvidia, with its stock rising nearly 75 per cent this year.
12/12/25 05:31
Before the Bell: What every Canadian investor needs to know today
– S.R. Slobodian
Global markets advanced following strength on Wall Street overnight, though a fresh decline in Oracle’s share price sent jitters through the tech sector.
Wall Street futures were mixed as tech concerns continue to weigh on the Nasdaq.
TSX futures edged up after Canada’s main stock market closed at another record high yesterday.
“Oracle announced disappointing earnings alongside further investment in data centres, triggering fresh concerns about AI-related spending, with investors questioning whether the high level of investment will ultimately deliver the required returns,” analysts from Westpac wrote in a research note.
Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 0.42 per cent in morning trading. Britain’s FTSE 100 gained 0.3 per cent, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.52 per cent and France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.69 per cent.
In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei closed 1.37 per cent higher, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.75 per cent.
12/12/25 05:01
U.S. futures point to a mixed opening
– The Associated Press
World shares rose on Friday, tracking Wall Street’s climb to records despite a sell-off for Oracle as worries persisted about a potential bubble in artificial-intelligence technology.
The future for the S&P 500 slipped less than 0.1 per cent, while that for the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.3 per cent.
In early European trading, Germany’s DAX added nearly 0.6 per cent to 24,427.67. Britain’s FTSE 100 rose 0.4 per cent to 9,737.25, and the CAC 40 in Paris gained 0.4 per cent to 8,141.66.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 index climbed 1.4 per cent to 50,836.55, rebounding from the previous session’s losses.
Investors remain cautious ahead of next week’s policy meeting of the Bank of Japan, where it is expected to raise interest rates, but technology shares helped lead broad gains.
On Thursday, the S&P 500 inched up 0.2 per cent to 6,901.00 and eked past its prior all-time closing high, which was set in October. The Dow Jones Industrial leaped 1.3 per cent to 48,704.01, to top its own record set last month. The Nasdaq composite lagged behind and slipped 0.3 per cent to 23,593.86 because of weakness in AI stocks.
It’s the latest return to records for the market following what had appeared to be a debilitating set of worries. Some of the most recent included concerns about what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates and whether all the dollars flowing into AI chips and data centers will produce profits and productivity as prolific as proponents are promising.
12/12/25 04:30
Thursday markets recap: TSX and S&P 500 close at record highs; Oracle shares tumble
– Reuters, Globe staff
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Oracle shares fell 10.8 per cent on Thursday in their biggest one-day drop since late January.Brian Snyder/Reuters
The S&P 500 and the Dow boasted record closing highs on Thursday after a U.S. Federal Reserve policy update that was less hawkish than expected, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq underperformed as Oracle Corp.’s ORCL-N financial update made investors wary of artificial-intelligence bets. The TSX also closed at another record.
Oracle shares tumbled 10.8 per cent in their biggest one-day drop since late January, and they were the top S&P 500 decliner after the company’s quarterly forecasts fell short of analysts’ estimates. It had also warned that annual spending would run US$15-billion higher than previously planned, stoking fears about its big push into AI. The cost of insuring Oracle debt against default surged as investors feared that the company’s heavy reliance on debt financing could be part of an AI bubble similar to the dot-com bust of the early 2000s.
While Oracle helped drag other technology names lower, the Dow rallied along with the Russell 2000 small-cap index, which closed up 1.2 per cent and the S&P 500 value index, up 0.6 per cent, outperformed the growth index, which ended off 0.12 per cent.
Investors also continued to digest the U.S. central bank’s update from Wednesday, when the Fed lowered borrowing costs by 25 basis points and chair Jerome Powell signalled a pause on further easing. However, investors were relieved that the Fed still had some rate cuts on its dot plot as it balanced still-elevated inflation with signs of labour market weakness.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 646.26 points, or 1.34 per cent, to 48,704.01, vaulting above its Nov. 12 closing record. The S&P 500 gained 14.32 points, or 0.21 per cent, to 6,901.00, breaching its Oct. 28 record close. The Nasdaq Composite lost 60.30 points, or 0.25 per cent, to 23,593.86.
The S&P/TSX Composite Index ended up 169.88 points, or 0.5 per cent, at 31,660.73, surpassing its record closing high on Wednesday.
