No. 8 seed UC Davis hosts unseeded Illinois State in the FCS quarterfinals. The winner will face either No. 12 Villanova or No. 4 Tarleton State.
Check out our preview and prediction below.
Predictions Record:
2025 Record: 135-48
2024 Record: 126-40
UC Davis vs. Illinois State On TV
The matchup between UC Davis and Illinois State airs on ESPN+.
Kickoff is at 4 p.m. CT on Saturday, Dec. 13. It takes place at UC Davis Health Stadium in Davis, California.
UC Davis vs. Illinois State Preview
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Illinois State is coming off arguably the biggest upset in FCS playoff history, defeating No. 1 NDSU 29-28 after scoring 15 points in the final three minutes to stun the college football world.
UC Davis enjoyed that upset as well, considering it meant the Aggies get to host again after beating No. 9 Rhode Island 47-26.
Saturday is a playoff rematch from last year’s second round. The Aggies defeated ISU 42-10. Several of ISU’s best players from last year are back, including QB Tommy Rittenhouse, RB Wenkers Wright, WR Daniel Sobkowicz, LB Tye Niekamp, and DL Jake Anderson. Revenge will be on their mind.
UC Davis returns a veteran offensive line, and it’ll need to be sharp. ISU completely overwhelmed NDSU’s offensive line last week, something rarely done in the Bison’s dynasty run. The Redbirds notched seven TFLs and four sacks, led by Garret Steffen’s two sacks. Anderson is a problem as well at 6-foot-5 and 295 pounds, and he forced a key fumble in Fargo to set up the game-winning points. Behind them, Niekamp is a top-tier FCS linebacker, racking up 145 tackles, 13 TFLs, two sacks, and six pass breakups this season.
The Aggies have allowed 2.92 sacks per game, which ranks No. 109 in the FCS. ISU’s d-line looks to eat again.
The good news for UC Davis is the slipperiness and mobility of standout redshirt freshman quarterback Caden Pinnick. Pinnick has been sensational this season, completing 69.4% of his passes for 2,804 yards, 29 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He adds 411 yards and three scores on the ground. Jordan Fisher is a 1,000-yard rusher, and Samuel Gbatu Jr. is over 1,000 receiving yards with 11 touchdowns. Ian Simpson is a top tight end in the FCS, catching 29 passes for 416 yards and three TDs.
UC Davis averages 32.5 points per game and can get rolling when it’s in a groove. The Aggies have the talent, scheme, and playcalling to put a defense in a blender. ISU’s defense has had highs and lows throughout this season, allowing 25.5 points per game.
RELATED: FCS National Championship Odds
On the other side of the ball, UC Davis’ defense has been bitten by injuries. The Aggies are leaky, allowing 29.2 points per game, 181.0 rushing yards per game, and 238.0 passing yards per game. Nate Rutchena leads the unit with 70 tackles. Jacob Psyk is having a dynamite season, racking up 15.5 TFLs and 9.5 sacks. Sam Goligoski is another issue with his 9.5 TFLs and 6.5 sacks.
The Redbirds offer a balanced offensive attack, putting up 29.8 points per game.
Rittenhouse is a veteran QB, completing 65% of his passes this year for 2,740 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. The 31 touchdown throws are tied for No. 3 in the FCS. Sobkowicz is among the best receivers in the FCS, tallying 65 catches for 842 yards and 14 TDs. ISU has a standout running back duo in Victor Dawson (948 yards, 4 TDs) and Wenkers Wright (591 yards, 5 TDs). Rittenhouse adds 352 yards and seven scores on the ground.
Wright didn’t play last week, and ISU is hopeful he’ll be back for Saturday. Rittenhouse, meanwhile, gutted through a hamstring injury. His mobility will be something to monitor again.
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UC Davis vs. Illinois State Prediction
Two questions within this matchup come to my mind.
At what point does UC Davis’ subpar defense cost the Aggies a game in the playoffs? And how will Illinois State respond physically and mentally from last week’s monstrous upset at NDSU? Don’t remind me of what happened to my Vikings a week after the Minneapolis Miracle.
It’s hard to have an emotional letdown in the playoffs, where each game gets bigger. But if UC Davis seizes momentum, does the air get let out of ISU’s balloon quicker? The Aggies can avalanche a defense in a hurry, scheming up ways to get their athletes in space to pop off explosive plays. However, ISU does have the d-line to throw Davis off rhythm. Caden Pinnick is electric, but he will throw a bad interception or take a bad sack occasionally.
UC Davis’ defense has to get off the field on third down. The Redbirds ran 91 plays to NDSU’s 46 last week, slowly working the ball downfield. They had just one completion that went over 24 yards. Can the No. 89 passing defense get stops? The Aggies are also 43.3% on third downs defensively, which is No. 88 in the FCS.
The Aggies’ pass protection and defensive deficiencies are a concern. But it’s also a team that can come at you in waves when it’s in its bag offensively.
This is ISU’s fifth road trip in the last six weeks, including three straight road playoff games. It’ll be a valiant effort at Davis, but the Aggies prevail with the fresher legs in the fourth.
Prediction: UC Davis 35-31
