Catastrophe in 2.8 days: Scientists say Earth at risk of disastrous chain reaction in space
The current satellite mega-constellation system can crumble within days in case of an intense solar storm, according to a new paper. Low-Earth orbit is extremely crowded, with several satellites working there. According to data, two satellites make a “close approach”, that is, pass by each other at less than one kilometre distance, every 22 seconds. Scientists handle these satellites from Earth to avoid collisions between them. However, the paper by Sarah Thiele, a PhD student at Princeton, and he co-authors, analysed what would happen in “edge cases” that can cause system failures, specifically in the case of a solar storm, Universe Today reported. Solar storms can cause an increased drag on satellites and put them on a collision path with another, forcing manoeuvres to avoid them crashing into one another. But the bigger problem, according to the authors, is that solar storms can affect navigational and communications systems, which facilitate these manoeuvres. What would happen in this case?
If humans lose control of satellites and are unable to move them around, the drag from the solar storm would put them in a precarious situation and trigger an immediate catastrophe. Using a new metric – the Collision Realization and Significant Harm (CRASH) Clock, the researchers calculated that if operators are unable to send commands for avoidance manoeuvres, a catastrophic collision will occur in around 2.8 days. This statistic holds true for June 2025, and is a stark change from 2018, when this time period was 121 days. If operators lose control for just 24 hours, there’s a 30 per cent chance of a collision that can trigger a process leading to the Kessler Syndrome, a scenario where the orbit would be filled with a debris cloud, rendering satellites unworkable and preventing the launch of new satellites.
Responding to a solar storm would need real-time action to keep satellites afloat and safe. However, if this system goes down, the window to fix it would be extremely small and failure to do so would result in the constellation crumbling like a “pack of cards”. The researchers also noted that if a storm as intense as the Carrington Event of 1859 were to strike, humans would not be able to control the satellites for longer than three days, eventually wiping out our satellite infrastructure.
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