NFL Week 16 betting advice: Eagles-Commanders pick and prop bets

Steve Maltepes, known as “The Philly Godfather,” will impart his gambling wisdom on the Eagles and where the smart money is going on various pro football games each weekend this season. Maltepes is one of the nation’s hottest sports betting experts who appears weekly on national radio, is the best-selling author of “Booked: The True Life Story of the PhillyGodfather,”and has his own website, www.thephillygodfather.com.

Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) at Washington Commanders (4-10) at 5:00 p.m. Saturday

The Line: Eagles minus-7/Total: 44.5

What is the line telling you:

This is a tricky game for the Birds after blowing out a really bad Raiders team last week. Even though Washington has one of the most injured—and weakest—defensive backfields in the NFL and has only won four games all season, this isn’t a walkover. When Marcus Mariota started, he’s shown the ability to move the ball and put points on the board. With Mariota under center, Washington scored 29 points against the Giants, took Denver to overtime and scored 26 against a Broncos team that may have the best defense in the NFL, put up 41 against Vegas, and scored 27 against a Falcons team that still ranks top 10 in many defensive metrics. Add in the fact that this is a road divisional game, and things can get weird.

The Eagles should win this game—they’re the better team and hold an overall +8 health advantage. Washington also has the third-worst turnover differential in the league. That said, late-season divisional games are always wacky, and Mariota is clearly playing for a potential starting job next season. As a backup this year, he’s thrown for 1,600 yards with a 62% completion percentage. One more thing: as of right now, nearly 90% of the early public money is on Philadelphia. That should be concerning for anyone looking to invest in the Eagles tomorrow. We like Washington +7 and the over 44 here, as long as the weather stays as projected for tomorrow’s game.

Jalen Hurts over 210 passing yards -135

Dallas Goedert anytime TD +185

Marcus Mariota anytime TD +300

(Betting lines are subject to change.)