How can the Chiefs fix their offense and return to dominance? It starts with the run game – The Athletic

Is the Chiefs’ dynasty over? Maybe. Maybe not. It’s definitely on hold after they were eliminated from playoff contention. To make matters worse, Patrick Mahomes tore multiple ligaments in his knee and could miss games next season.

Sustained success in a league designed to create parity is difficult. The best modern dynasty in the NFL is the Patriots, who won six Super Bowls. Even with Tom Brady leading the franchise, their secret was constant reinvention. There were years when they were pass-happy, there were years when they were run-heavy. In some years, they were blitz-heavy and in other years, they played coverage.

We have yet to see true reinvention from the Chiefs. They did go from an explosive passing attack to one that moved the ball methodically with quick passes, but the overarching philosophy has remained the same. Everything falls on the passing game and Mahomes’ ability to create. Mahomes has battled through injuries before, but finally, the wear and tear was too much.

Andy Reid is one of the greatest schemers that the league has ever seen, but even going back to his years in Philadelphia, his biggest weakness has always been his reluctance to run the ball. It hasn’t been an issue with this version of the Chiefs — because they have one of the greatest quarterbacks that we’ve seen — but with the league trending towards smaller, faster defenders and prioritizing coverage over stopping the run, the Chiefs are fighting fire with fire, continuing to rely on their passing attack against light boxes and two-deep defenses.

I get it. Taking the ball out of the hands of Mahomes is not an easy decision to make. The Bills gave Josh Allen a legitimate run game built around a physical offensive line and James Cook, and it’s taken a considerable load off of his shoulders. Of course, Allen still puts on his cape in third-and-long situations or when the Bills fall behind, but he doesn’t have to on every down. With Mahomes’ injury, it’s reasonable to expect that his mobility could be affected for the entirety of next season. It is more pertinent than ever that the Chiefs build and commit to a legitimate running attack.

Why RPOs and shotgun runs are ineffective

The Chiefs rank 28th in rush rate and number one in “cook” rate, which measures how often teams pass in neutral situations. When the Chiefs run the ball, it’s primarily from the gun. They rank 28th in percentage of under-center runs. They are primarily a shotgun team, and a majority of their runs are run/pass options in which Mahomes has the choice to throw the ball or hand it off.

Early in Mahomes’ career, defenses didn’t have a lot of experience defending RPOs, and it led to a high rate of explosive runs and passes on these concepts. Defenses now have much better ways of defending them, and though the Chiefs’ RPOs are still effective, they no longer lead to explosive plays, and defenses can stay in two-deep shells against them. Despite ranking 12th in rushing success rate (41.3 p,ercent) which measures down-to-down efficiency, they rank 31st in explosive rush rate (5.4 percent).

I talked to former Chiefs offensive lineman Mitchell Schwartz about the Chiefs’ run game.

“When your interior is Trey Smith, Creed Humphrey and Joe Thuney, and then now Kingsley Suamataia, you should be able to pound teams, kind of regardless of tackle play. So is it running back personnel? Scheme? Coaching? It’s kind of surprising. I think a big issue is the run game is so shotgun oriented, but then you think of all the two-high looks, and without a zone-read QB, you should have traditional numbers regardless,” Schwartz said. “So I think there’s a lot of scheme elements that aren’t being utilized compared to the Miami’s and Chicago’s, and then the personnel is such that there’s zero explosive runs.”

The best shotgun running teams have quarterbacks who are a threat to run, which gives them a mathematical advantage. When the quarterback does keep the ball, they are an immediate threat to create an explosive play. Technically, with RPOs, the offense should have a mathematical advantage, but because they are longer-developing plays, there are ways for the defense to keep them from producing explosive plays.

Week 2, 11:24 remaining, first-and-10

On this example from Week 2, the Chiefs had an inside-zone concept with passing concepts built in on both sides. Technically, they get what they want with a five-man box. Linebacker Zack Baun was split wider than he normally would to help defend the pass concept on that side.

However, after the snap, Baun was able to get back into the run fit after he saw the hand off, and the Eagles were able to stop the run for a minimal gain.

The Chiefs’ half-measure under-center run game

“When they did go under center, it felt very picked and chosen,” Schwartz said. “Despite the good success rate (in part because it allowed the OL to get off the ball faster), it was seldom used, and teams didn’t care about the run and could easily sit on play action.”

The Chiefs have tried to get under center more this season, but they’ve done it sparingly throughout the season and will abandon it for the majority of some games. For them to truly build out an under-center run game, they would have to make that philosophical decision in the offseason and work on it in training camp. It isn’t just a magic wand to decide to go under center and start running plays; it takes commitment to it. This year, when they got under center, there were some schematic issues and lack of detail with their run scheme that held them back.

Week 15, 13:17 remaining in the first quarter, first-and-10

On this play, the Chiefs had a pin-and-pull concept called, but the play required right tackle Jaylon Moore to block the inside linebacker lined up with the left A-gap, which is an extremely difficult block.

The play was blocked well by everyone else, but Moore couldn’t get to his assignment, who tackled Kareem Hunt for a 1-yard gain.

Again, the Bills are a perfect example of how to complement an elite playmaker quarterback with a run game. The Chiefs have better pass catchers, a better overall passing scheme, better defense and a better quarterback, which is why they’ve been able to outduel the Bills in the postseason. This season, the Bills will be in the playoffs despite having one of the worst defenses in the league because they can run the ball. Allen and Mahomes were two of the primary reasons why defenses have shifted into the two-deep meta. The Bills attacked how defenses were playing them by building out a real running attack, while the Chiefs doubled down on their passing attack. Mahomes made it work, but their offensive production has been declining for years.

This season, despite having maybe their most offensive talent in years, they failed to live up to expectations. Bringing in an offensive coordinator or assistant with experience in a run-heavy attack could be beneficial to ensuring a sound run scheme.

Retooling the personnel

Aside from schematic reinvention, they also have to retool their personnel. The offensive line will be mostly intact. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons looks to be a future Pro Bowler — he’ll be on a rookie contract — and the entire interior is under contract. Travis Kelce, who, despite his regression, is still one of the most productive tight ends in the league, could retire. As mentioned, the Chiefs desperately need an upgrade at running back. They rank eighth in yards before contact (1.76) but rank 29th in yards after contact (2.51). The offensive line is creating space, but the running backs aren’t taking advantage of it.

The Chiefs can acquire a running back through free agency or the draft. According to Over the Cap, the Chiefs will be over the cap by $45 million next season, but they give big base salaries or really big roster bonuses. When they get to the year when that bonus hits, they can restructure and spread it through multiple seasons. Mahomes has $55 million hitting the cap in just 2026. They can spread that over all of his years. With just that move, they can free up $44 million. They can also cut Jawaan Taylor, free up $22 million and move Moore to right tackle. They are in a much better situation financially than it may look, and they could spend in free agency.

Though this is not a strong free agent class, there are some good running backs available. Even if they decide to “splurge” on a back, it’s not a big investment because of how depressed the running back market is. Breece Hall, in whom the Chiefs had reported trade interest, could be available and, according to an NFL agent I spoke to, would cost around $12 million a year. Other running backs on the market include Rico Dowdle, Javonte Williams, Kenneth Walker III and Travis Etienne Jr.

Another intriguing scenario is if Notre Dame’s Jeremiyah Love falls to them. The Chiefs have the 12th pick, and without Mahomes, they might continue to move up in the draft. I asked The Athletic’s draft expert, Dane Brugler, about the possibility of the Chiefs drafting Love.

“If Love is still available, he’ll be the best player available. And you can argue there isn’t another player in the draft who will impact the roster more than him. Bottom line with how I would view it: coming away with the most explosive offensive player in the draft shouldn’t be viewed as the wrong strategy.”

Outside of the run game, the Chiefs have struggled to beat man coverage this season. Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown and Tyquan Thornton have had moments, but they have been inconsistent. Rashee Rice is their best receiver, but he’s not a classic isolation receiver. With Kelce’s regression, they don’t have a go-to weapon they can trust to beat one-on-one coverage. If Kelce retires, his $17 million salary would come off the books, and they could use that money to splurge on a tight end like Kyle Pitts, who is having a resurgent season. They just haven’t had success drafting and developing receivers. If a big-name receiver does become available, it’s an option that they have to explore.

Missing the playoffs this season could be the wake-up call the Chiefs need to reinvent themselves. It’s never easy deviating from a formula that brought them so much success, but it has to be clear to the Chiefs’ front office and coaching staff that it is necessary to make them Super Bowl contenders again.