After a hot week in the DFS market, I limped in with 50% of my DFS bankroll on Sunday. Many chalk players came in, giving more teams out if they put together the winning stack. The Los Angeles Chargers’ lack of defense forced their offense to throw in the second half, fueling one creative team builder to take home $1,000,000 on Sunday.
DraftKings
This week’s free squares were Quinshon Judkins (26.40), Rashee Rice (23.20), and Cleveland Defense (25.00). Bo Nix (39.96) stole the quarterback show with his frantic comeback in the fourth quarter when Denver scored 33 points to steal the game from the Giants twice.
Alexander Cole scored 97.20 fantasy points from Justin Herbert (32.90), Keenan Allen (31.90), and Oronde Gadsden (32.40), plus another 34.20 fantasy points from a correlated Jonathan Taylor.
If some played the same roster with Quinshon Judkins/Cleveland defense (51.40 – $9,000 in salary) over Javonte Williams/Caroline defense (38.70 – $9,200 in salary), they would have pushed the winning total in the 260s.
Jalen Hurts (27.04), AJ Brown (31.10), and DeVonta Smith (36.30) combined for 94.44 fantasy points, creating a winning stack in the early games. In addition, Jordan Addison (24.80) delivered a 4X outcome as a correlated piece to the foundation of an Eagles/Vikings team build.
My best team (1,857th place – 198.44 fantasy points) had two holes: Romo Odunze (5.10) and Harold Fannin (7.60), putting two moves away from a great score.
On Monday night, the Buccaneers face the Lions on the road with a changing wide receiver corps. Mike Evans is set to return, while Emeka Egbuka (hamstring) teased fantasy game managers by appearing on the practice field on Saturday. Tampa upgraded him to questionable, but he seems more likely to sit than play from my viewpoint.
Detroit is locked and loaded on the offensive side of the ball, but they have some question marks in the secondary due to injuries and the one-game suspension of S Brian Branch.
In the other matchup, the Houston Texans (3-4) are trying to stay in playoff contention. Their defense grades well (a league low 61 points allowed), but the Seattle Seahawks (4-2) have more firepower on offense.
Shawn Childs
Heading into this week’s matchup, Goff posted fewer than 30 pass attempts in five consecutive games, giving him a steady game manager feel in a dynamic scoring offense. Before last week’s loss to the Chiefs (17 points scored), Detroit averaged over 40 points in its four previous matchups, highlighted by 21 touchdowns and five field goals over 48 possessions. Goff’s only winning fantasy day came in Week 2 at home (340 combined yards with five touchdowns).
Shawn Child
The Buccaneers rank 25th in fantasy points allowed (133.55) to quarterbacks, with most of their failure in passing yards coming in their last two games (Sam Darnold – 341/4 and Mac Jones – 347/0). Four different quarterbacks completed at least 26 passes, suggesting a high floor of catches for the Lions’ receiving corps.
Last season, Goff passed for 307 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions at home against the Bucs. He needed 55 pass attempts, leading to 34 completions. The Lions played Tampa twice in 2023, where Goff played well (356/2 and 293/2). Detroit has success scoring in close with rushing touchdowns, which caps their quarterback’s fantasy value in many games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) throws downfield during the fourth quarter against the San Francisco 49ers at Raymond James Stadium. / Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images
Mayfield has yet to post an explosive fantasy day in 2025, partly due to him missing some of the Bucs’ top offensive players for multiple games. He opened the year with three passing touchdowns on the road vs. a better Falcons’ defense than initially expected coming in this year. Over his next five games, Mayfield had a floor of two scores in four matchups, with his best showing coming in Week 5 (394/2).
The Lions defended him well last season (185/1 with five rushes for 34 yards and one touchdown) in a low-scoring (20-16 win). In that game, Tampa only had 19 pass attempts. Mayfield also played poorly in 2023 in Detroit (19-for-37 for 212 combined yards with no touchdowns and one interception). He made up for this shortfall with success against the Lions in the postseason on the road (364/3 with two interceptions).
Detroit has allowed 14 touchdowns to quarterbacks this year, with only Joe Flacco (184/0) coming up empty for the Browns.
The Lions rank 26th in defending quarterbacks (23.60 fantasy points per game).
Mayfield has the highest salary for quarterbacks at DraftKings. He is a gamer, and Tampa should have to throw to win this game. The return of Mike Evans helps his scoring upside, but timing with his quarterback could be off in this game due to some rust.
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Jacksonville Jaguars at EverBank Stadium. / Travis Register-Imagn Images
The Texans are another team with weakness in pass attempts in four games (27, 24, 28, and 27). Their team is structured to control the clock with the run game and play winning defense. Over their last two matchups, Stroud completed 81.8% of his passes, resulting in 519 combined yards with six touchdowns. His best outcome (274/4) came on the road against the Ravens, who played the game without their top quarterback due to injuries on defense.
The Seahawks’ defense has allowed the most completions (157) while ranking second in passing attempts (227) allowed. Quarterbacks have 10 touchdowns, but they are gaining only 6.8 yards per pass attempt.
Overall, Seattle’s defense faced a favorable quarterback passing schedule. The DFS market will gravitate toward this for a reason to play Stroud with his lower salary. Unfortunately, both teams would like to run the ball. The Seahawks’ recent scoring uptick has come over the top of defense, which may not come to fruition in this matchup. I have Stroud projected for 261 combined yards with 1.5 touchdowns.
Over the past four games, Darnold completed 18 passes that gained 20 yards or more (23.7% of his completions). He has a 40-yard completion in all but one game this year. On the downside, Seattle has only thrown the ball 161 times this year (26.8 per game), 66 fewer than their opponents. Darnold is gaining an impressive 9.6 yards per pass attempt, with strength in his completion rate (70.8%). Over his last two starts, he gained 636 passing yards with six touchdowns.
Houston brings the best quarterback defense (66.65 fantasy points allowed) to the table. They’ve allowed only three passing touchdowns (none over their last three games), with offenses gaining only 6.3 yards per pass attempt.
Despite the appearance of a great pass defense, the Texans faced three consecutive opponents that have struggled to attack the deep part of the field in the passing games. I respected Houston’s defense, but they overplayed their talent so far this year due to the quarterback matchups. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is riding high, and the Seahawks have done a nice job featuring their tight end this year. I expect Darnold to play well tonight, and his value price point may be enough to get that one extra start into a winning DFS lineup.
