Based on historical data, a hurricane hits Jamaica about once every 10-11 years, on average.
Tropical Storm Melissa expected to strengthen into a hurricane
AccuWeather’s Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva shared the latest updates on Tropical Storm Melissa and if it could impact the United States.
On the morning of Friday Oct. 24, Tropical Storm Melissa continues to spin in the central Caribbean Sea, where the island nation of Jamaica lies almost directly in the path of the burgeoning hurricane.
While Hispaniola and Cuba are also in the line of fire, forecasters from the National Hurricane Center on Oct. 23 said that in the short term, Jamaica could see the worst of the storm’s fury.
“Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and coastal flooding continues to increase for Jamaica,” the hurricane center said.
“Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica by Friday (Oct. 24) or Saturday (Oct. 25),” the hurricane center warned.
Models hone in on Jamaica
Andrew Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, said on X Oct. 23 that he’s “becoming increasingly concerned for the possibility of a close pass or direct hit on Jamaica from Melissa. Overnight hurricane models have trended closer and all show impacts on the island.”
Indeed, according to the hurricane center, “a variety of model solutions show Melissa south of Jamaica, over Jamaica, or north of Jamaica.”
Heavy rain is expected across Jamaica, where “precipitation totals from multiple models suggest that storm totals exceeding 24 inches and localized amounts above 30 inches are quite possible,” noted meteorologists Bob Henson and Jeff Masters in their blog Eye on the Storm.
How often do hurricanes hit Jamaica?
Based on historical data, a hurricane hits Jamaica about once every 10-11 years, on average, according to the Jamaican government. A hurricane gets close (without a direct hit) about every 4 years or so.
Over the years, many hurricanes have neared Jamaica, including Category 4 Hurricane Ivan (2004), Category 4 Hurricane Dean (2007), and a direct hit from Hurricane Sandy in 2012.
The strongest recorded hurricane hit was Hurricane Gilbert in 1988, which made landfall as a high-end Category 3.
