Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane prediction | UFC 321 breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 320 main event.
Dan Tom
When Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane step into the Octagon for their heavyweight fight at UFC 321, it’d be the wrong time to leave the room to grab a beverage.
It’d be too much even to blink, at risk of missing the outcome.
Aspinall, the 32-year-old from England, has finished off his past three opponents in 60 seconds, 69 seconds and 73 seconds – by knockout. And, with Jon Jones having relinquished the heavyweight title, Aspinall is now the division’s reigning champion.
His 15-3 record is misleading because he’s suffered only one clear defeat, about a decade ago. One of the other losses occurred 15 seconds into the bout when he suffered a knee injury, and the other took place when he was disqualified for an illegal downward elbow. It’s among what makes him a significant favorite against Gane.
About the only worrisome thing as he heads into this fight? He’ll be returning from a 15-month layoff.
USA TODAY Sports has everything you need to enjoy UFC 321, including updates, highlights and analysis:
UFC 321: Time, PPV, streaming for Aspinall vs Gane
The highly fight between Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane will take place on Saturday, Oct. 25 and can be purchased on ESPN+ PPV.
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 25
- Location: Etihad Arena (Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates)
- Prelims card start time: 10 a.m. ET
- Prelims card TV: FX; Prelims stream: ESPN+, Disney+
- Main card start time: 2 p.m. ET
- Main card stream: ESPN+ PPV
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UFC 321: Aspinall vs Gane predictions
MMA Junkie: Alexander Volkov makes prediction that can go either way
Farah Hannoun writes on behalf of Alexander Volkov predictions: “It depends how the fight starts, how both of them will be prepared for this fight. I saw that Gane will be motivated a lot for this fight to get the belt. It’s 50-50, but on paper, when I fought both of them, Tom Aspinall looks better. But in the fight, it could go any way.”
ESPN: Tom Aspinall
Brett Okamoto and Ian Parker write: “Aspinall will defend his heavyweight belt after a 15-month layoff and will do so against the No. 1 contender in Gane. On the feet, this is a 50-50 fight with Gane being the more technical kickboxer while Aspinall is the more explosive athlete with knockout power. The difference will be Aspinall’s grappling and jiu-jitsu. Gane was submitted by Jon Jones in Round 1 in March 2023, so it wouldn’t shock me if Aspinall takes that same path. Go with Aspinall to win inside the distance, and if you are feeling greedy, take him to win by submission.”
BetMGM: Aspinall via TKO/KO
Anatoly Pimentel writes: “I predict a TKO/KO finish for Aspinall within two rounds because of the one-punch knockout power that he has. Additionally, he has the killer instinct to finish his opponents, which is evident in his TKO/KO rate of 100%. Once the lethal right-hand punch of Aspinall lands, it significantly compromises the opposition. He’s also very accurate with his offense and does a good job of closing the distance with caution without overextending.”
Boxing News: Aspinall
Staff writes: “I think Tom Aspinall blitzes straight through Ciryl Gane to be quite honest,” the Australian MMA superstar said on his YouTube channel. “Whether it’s a takedown or even with the strikes. Unless you catch him [Aspinall] coming in, he’s bulldozing you. You need to try and catch Aspinall coming in and I just can’t see that happening. “It’s going to be a win for Tom Aspinall . I think he’s a heavy favorite.”
UFC 321 odds: Aspinall vs Gane fight
Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday.
- Champ Tom Aspinall (-375) vs. Ciryl Gane (+290): Heavyweight title
Fight card according to ESPN: Odds via BetMGM.
(Odds as of Saturday)
- Champ Tom Aspinall (-425) vs. Ciryl Gane (+310): Heavyweight title
- Virna Jandiroba (+125) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-150): Women’s strawweight title
- Umar Nurmagomedov (-700) vs. Mario Bautista (+475): Bantamweight
- Alexander Volkov (+150) vs. Jailton Almeida (-185): Heavyweight
- Aleksandar Rakic (-115) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-105): Light Heavyweight
- Nasrat Haqparast (+100) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-120): Lightweight
- Ikram Aliskerov (-210) vs. JunYong Park (+170): Middleweight
- Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (-110) vs. Matheus Camilo (+110): Lightweight
- Ludovit Klein (-135) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+110): Lightweight
- Valter Walker (-400) vs. Louie Sutherland (+310): Heavyweight
- Nathaniel Wood (+125) vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (-155): Featherweight
- Hamdy Abdelwahab (-550) vs. Chris Barnett (+400): Heavyweight
- Azat Maksum (-550) vs. Mitch Raposo (+400): Flyweight
- Jaqueline Amorim (-450) vs. Mizuki Inoue (+340): Women’s Strawweight
UFC gets an earlier start than usual. Here are your start times.
- Prelims: 10 a.m. ET (FX, ESPN+, Disney+)
- Main card: 2 p.m. ET (PPV on ESPN+)
Fight card according to ESPN: Odds via BetMGM.
Main Card:
- Champ Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane: Heavyweight title
- Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern: Women’s strawweight title
- Umar Nurmagomedovvs. Mario Bautista: Bantamweight
- Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida: Heavyweight
- Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov: Light Heavyweight
Prelims
- Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld: Lightweight
- Ikram Aliskerovvs. JunYong Park: Middleweight
- Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady vs. Matheus Camilo: Lightweight
- Ludovit Kleinvs. Mateusz Rebecki: Lightweight
- Valter Walker vs. Louie Sutherland: Heavyweight
- Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Miguel Delgado: Featherweight
- Hamdy Abdelwahab vs. Chris Barnett: Heavyweight
- Azat Maksum vs. Mitch Raposo: Flyweight
- Jaqueline Amorim vs. Mizuki Inoue: Women’s Strawweight
The Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane UFC 321 fight card consists of 12 fights and will begin at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025. The main card for the Aspinall-Gane fight is expected to be around 2 p.m. ET. However, the duration of the undercard will impact when Aspinall and Gane actually start, which is estimated to be at about 4:30 p.m. ET. — Elizabeth Flores
