The Blue Jays are in Los Angeles for Game 3 of the World Series on Monday night and the series is tied at 1-1.
The Blue Jays’ offence exploded on the Dodgers’ pitchers in Game 1 on Friday in an 11-4 win. The Jays beat Blake Snell who had thrown eight one-hit innings against the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS. He didn’t face a single runner in scoring position and faced the minimum number of hitters over the eight innings. The Jays used their aggressively selective approach at the plate and blew things open with a nine-run sixth inning.
On Sunday, the Jays were shut down by the Dodgers’ ace, Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He has been L.A.’s healthiest and most productive pitcher this season. He also dominated the Brewers in the NLCS. In Game 2, he gave up a leadoff homer and then only allowed two more hits the rest of the game.
There’s no shame in this from the Blue Jays’ perspective. Yamamoto was nearly unhittable. It was not a bad effort by the Jays nor was it a bad approach. It was purely about a dominant pitcher who was on top of his game. He pounded the strike zone and used an assortment of pitches ranging from 74-96 mph to keep the Jays off balance and induce soft-contact.
It’s only one game. It doesn’t mean the Jays are in a slump. And it doesn’t mean they won’t be able to hit tonight. It doesn’t mean that Yamamoto will beat the Jays next time either. It was just a great pitcher shutting down a very good offence.
Tonight will feature Dodgers pitcher Tyler Glasnow against Blue Jays starter Max Scherzer. Glasnow started Game 3 against the Milwaukee Brewers in the NLCS, so it is not a surprise that he is lined up for Game 3 in the World Series. He went 5 2/3 innings allowing only three hits and one run while walking three and striking out eight for a no-decision in a 3-1 win.
The Blue Jays have seen Glasnow quite a bit in his career. They have faced him in 11 starts and he is 1- 4 with a 5.82 ERA in those starts. And just like the Yamamoto performance doesn’t ensure any performance the next time the Jays see him, Toronto’s success against Glasnow won’t necessarily lead to more success. It comes down to execution of the right pitches in the right sequence.
Glasnow is tough to hit. He is 6’8” and his extension to the plate is 7.6 feet. He releases the ball closer to the plate than just about anyone in the major leagues. His perceived velocity is greater than his actual velocity because of that. He has an electric four seam fastball that he uses 35 per cent of the time. He throws the sinker 21 per cent of the time and he uses both the curveball and slider at 22 per cent.
The Jays will have their work cut out for them trying to score runs. They need to jump on his fastball when they get it, because his secondary stuff is nasty.
I would like to see Toronto force Glasnow to field his position. Try to bunt for a couple base hits and make his 6’8” frame get off of the mound and bend over to make a play. He also doesn’t hold runners very well, so try to steal some bases. The Jays need to make him throw strikes because he will walk his share of hitters as it’s tough to repeat a delivery as tall as he is.
The big surprise is that Jays’ manager John Schneider has decided to start veteran right-hander Max Scherzer in Game 3 over Shane Bieber, who started Game 3 of the ALCS and was awesome. Granted, Bieber has made three postseason starts and only the Game 3 start in Seattle was a good one. He only went 2 2/3 innings against the Yankees in the ALDS and 3 2/3 innings in the Game 7 matchup against the Mariners. He has been pretty hittable.
Although Scherzer had a good outing in Game 4 against the Mariners, it came on the heels of an 0-3 record and 10.20 ERA in September. It really came out of the blue. It was a special performance, but can he do it again?
Schneider is taking a risk with this decision. I feel like the upside of Scherzer has a shot to be better than Bieber but the bottom has a significant chance of being lower as well. Scherzer’s 12.96 ERA in first innings during the season is a potential reality in Game 3 of the World Series and could completely wipe the Jays out if they need to go deep in their bullpen.
Bo Bichette is in the lineup for Game 3 after not starting in Game 2. I don’t know exactly how Bichette is feeling and how ‘day-to-day’ he is for sure. He isn’t moving very well, but as he said he’s good enough. It will be interesting to see if Schneider bats him fourth after realizing how naked that made Vladimir Guerrero Jr. late in the game after Bichette was removed for a pinch-runner.
Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will easily walk Guerrero if Isiah Kiner-Falefa ends up hitting behind him after replacing Bichette. Alejandro Kirk needs to be behind Guerrero so the Dodgers are made to pay a price if they walk him.
The pathway to win Game 3 for the Blue Jays is to make Glasnow throw the ball over the plate. If he tries to nibble then they have to layoff pitches outside of the zone as he will walk hitters. The Jays need to take the extra baserunners when given them. When they get fastballs from Glasnow over the plate they can’t miss them. And he will likely not go more than six innings, so the Jays need to score on the Dodgers bullpen.
Scherzer needs to keep the ball in the ballpark and to not walk batters. The Dodgers will crush him if he tries to nibble off the corners and doesn’t throw enough strikes.
Defensively, they need to make all the plays. The Jays’ lefty relievers will need to get Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Max Muncy out if they are to win the game. The rest of the bullpen will need to produce as well.
