Melissa Heads Toward Catastrophic Landfall Today
Hurricane Melissa is forecast to make a historic, catastrophic Category 5 landfall in Jamaica today with life-threatening flash flooding, landslides, destructive winds and storm surge in one of the strongest landfalls on record anywhere in the Atlantic Basin.
(MORE: Track Melissa With These Maps | Live Updates)
Happening Now
Current Satellite Image
(The highest cloud tops, corresponding to the most vigorous convection, are shown in the dark red and pink colors. Clustering, deep convection around the center is a sign of a healthy tropical system.
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Hurricane Melissa’s center is about 115 miles west-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. Melissa is moving north-northeast at 5 mph.
The weather is deteriorating rapidly on Jamaica. Wind gusts from 55 to 60 mph have been clocked in both Kingston and Montego Bay.
Bands of heavy rain area pummeling the island, and some far outer rainbands are also soaking parts of southwestern Haiti and eastern Cuba.
A Category 5 Floodmaker
Melissa will generate prolific rainfall in parts of Jamaica, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba.
(MORE: Why Slow-Moving Storms Are The Worst)
The National Hurricane Center is warning that up to 40 inches of rain could fall in southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Wednesday.
That torrential rainfall is likely to trigger catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in Jamaica and Haiti, especially in hilly and mountainous terrain, according to the National Hurricane Center.
In eastern Cuba, up to 25 inches of rain could fall through Wednesday, with potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides. And in the southeast Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, up to 10 inches of rain could fall through Wednesday night, with flash flooding expected.
Additional Rain Forecast
(This should be interpreted as a broad forecast of where the heaviest rain may fall and may shift based on the forecast path of the tropical cyclone. Higher amounts may occur where bands of rain stall over a period of a few hours. )
In addition to the rainfall flood threat, the NHC is forecasting a storm surge of 9 to 13 feet above ground level east of where Melissa is forecast to make landfall along the southern coast of Jamaica early Tuesday.
This surge is likely to affect parts of Jamaica’s capital city, Kingston, including Norman Manley International Airport, as Yale Climate Connections’ Jeff Masters noted.
On the western side of Jamaica, a 2 to 4 foot surge is possible near Montego Bay.
In eastern Cuba, a life-threatening storm surge of 7 to 11 feet above ground level could occur along the southeast Cuban coast with landfall.
And in the southeast Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos, a 4 to 6-foot storm surge is forecast Wednesday.
Peak Storm Surge Forecast From The NHC
Forecast Track, Intensity
Melissa is forecast to make landfall at Category 5 intensity in Jamaica Tuesday.
It will then push into eastern Cuba as still a major hurricane Tuesday night or early Wednesday before quickly moving through the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Wednesday at hurricane strength.
Melissa could then track close to Bermuda overnight Thursday night or early Friday morning before it heads into the North Atlantic as a post tropical cyclone.
Melissa will likely be Jamaica’s most intense hurricane landfall on record, and will be the first Category 5 landfall anywhere in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Dorian slammed the northwestern Bahamas beginning on Sept. 1, 2019. Melissa likely will also be among the most intense Category 5 Atlantic Basin landfalls on record.
The current intensity forecast for Melissa is denoted by the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale categories in the forecast path graphic below.
Current Status, Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It’s important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.
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Destructive Wind Danger
According to the National Hurricane Center, catastrophic hurricane conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica soon. The NHC also says winds could be up to 30 percent stronger along the windward slopes of mountains and hills.
These winds are capable of “extensive infrastructural damage” including “total structural failure” as well as “long-lasting power and communication outages” that could leave communities isolated, according to the NHC.
Even after hurricane force winds move out of Jamaica, tropical storm conditions could last into Tuesday night.
In eastern Cuba, tropical storm winds are expected starting today, with hurricane-force winds arriving tonight into Wednesday morning.
And in the southeast Bahamas, including the Turks and Caicos, tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected Wednesday.
(MORE: Not Too Late In Season For An Intense Hurricane)
Hurricane Wind Chances
(The contours above show the chance of hurricane-force winds (at least 74 mph), according to the latest forecast by the National Hurricane Center.
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The map below shows the latest watches and warnings in effect for Melissa.
A hurricane warning means hurricane-force winds are expected, and tropical-storm-force winds could persist for longer than a day, in this case.
A hurricane watch means those conditions are possible within 48 hours.
A tropical storm warning means those conditions are expected, in this case within 24 hours.
Watches And Warnings
(A watch is issued when tropical storm or hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A warning is issued when those conditions are expected within 36 hours.
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Track History
Tropical Storm Melissa formed last Tuesday morning, the 13th storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. By last Saturday afternoon, it became the season’s fifth hurricane.
That’s roughly on par with the average date of the 13th storm from 1991 through 2020 (Oct. 25), according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s also one storm shy of the average number of storms for an entire season, 14.
However, it was almost a month later than the average fifth hurricane date of September 28.
The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season names list. Those storm names used up already have check marks next to them.
Melissa then underwent extreme rapid intensification from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in just 24 hours from Saturday morning through last Sunday morning, feeding off the deep, warm water of the Caribbean Sea.
It then became the third Category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season early Monday morning as lightning lit up the hurricane’s eyewall.
(MORE: Rapid Intensification Is More Common Than You Think)
Melissa is also the first storm of the season to track into the Caribbean Sea. As you can see in the season-to-date tracks map below, most other storms and hurricanes have curled north of the Caribbean Sea this season.
That’s due either to steering winds in the Atlantic, or hostile conditions for development in the Caribbean Sea prior to Melissa.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracks To Date
Check back with us at weather.com for the latest forecast updates on Melissa, and elsewhere in the tropics.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.
