Locks
NBA (0.75 Unit) Julius Randle Over 38 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:30 PM CT on ESPN
This total is only just a little below what Randle is averaging on the season of 37.1 PRA per game, so I don’t think it’s appropriately adjusting for Minnesota’s situation. Without Anthony Edwards for a couple of weeks, Randle gets to unleash his inner ball-hog, which has to be eating away at him ever since joining the Wolves.
And this is the perfect setup for him to go off in a revenge spot against the team that drafted and gave up on him. Randle has always been a Lakers killer, highlighted by him going off against them in the playoffs last year and that was with Ant getting his normal usage. A shorthanded and defense-optional Lakers squad shouldn’t stand much chance of slowing Randle down here if he’s the true top option for the Wolves in Ant’s absence.
Bonus Bet (0.75 Unit): Austin Reaves Over 42.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-110; Odds via DraftKings)
This is not just about Reaves going over the total here in 3 of 4 games this season, once with points alone when he dropped 51 on the Kings. Ok, it’s a lot to do with that, but mainly the question I have is what else are the Lakers going to do besides run everything through him? With Luka Doncic out he’s the only real creator off the dribble, only true distributor, and arguably their best shooter. So out of necessity, I see Reaves getting over this number with another big game.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Atlanta Hawks Team Total Over 123.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on YES
Getting to 124 points is no small or easy feat, unless you’re playing the Nets. There is no option but to fade this Brooklyn defense night in and night out as they are firmly dead last in the NBA for points allowed (130.5 PPG!!), defensive efficiency, opponent floor percentage, opponent effective field goal rate, and so much more. The Nets have no intention of guarding you, so Atlanta has to be able to take advantage here. The Hawks are in need of some momentum as they sit at 1-3 to start the season, so this should be the perfect opportunity to get the offense into gear and clear this total.
NBA (0.75 Unit) Memphis Grizzlies Team Total Over 122.5 (-110; Odds via Caesars): 9:00 PM CT on Fanduel Sports SE
Getting to 123 points is no small or easy feat, unless you’re playing the Suns. I feel like I’m repeating myself, but there’s also no option but to fade this Phoenix defense in every game due to how bad they’ve been. Only the Nets are worse than the Suns in every key defensive metric, as Phoenix has proven Mat Ishbia wrong through 4 games. They’re also likely to be missing their top two defenders in Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks tonight, which is bad news against the aggressive Grizzlies who love to run with the 5th-most possessions per game in the league. That should give Memphis the opportunities they need to exploit a defense that would be the worst in the league without the existence of Brooklyn, so look for the Grizzlies to clear this high total.
Degenerates
MLB Blake Snell Under 1.5 Earned Runs (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 7:00 PM CT on FOX
Snell going out in Game 1 of the World Series and getting rocked was not something I expected to see. The 5 earned runs for him tied a season high and has to be viewed as an outlier, so I think he finds some extra motivation to bounce back tonight. When there are multiple meetings of a pitcher and an opposing lineup so close together like this, the second one tends to go the opposite way of the first, so that gives me additional hope. And with this series being tied 2-2 it creates a tighter game where Dave Roberts will manage things closely and not let Snell get into trouble again, so I have to take a shot on the juicy return here.
Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 26-35 (-7.72 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution
Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.
