Through the first week of the NBA season, the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs are two of the best teams in the league, ranking No. 1 (San Antonio) and No. 3 (Miami) in net rating.
The most impressive part?
Both squads are doing it without All-Star guards in the lineup. De’Aaron Fox (hamstring) has yet to play this season for San Antonio while Tyler Herro (foot) is likely out until mid-November for Miami.
Oddsmakers have the Spurs favored in Thursday’s showdown, as Victor Wembanyama is playing at an MVP level through four games, leading the Spurs to a perfect 4-0 start.
However, the Heat have debuted a new offense with way less pick-and-roll action, and it’s helped them post one of the best offensive ratings in the league.
Can Miami win a fourth straight game after a dominant showing against Charlotte earlier this week?
Here’s a breakdown of this game, including the latest odds, players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Heat Injury Report
Spurs Injury Report
Heat Best NBA Prop Bet
Has the rookie season Jaime Jaquez Jr. returned for Miami?
After a down 2024-25 season, Jaquez is off to a fast start this season, averaging 18.8 points per game while shooting 68.9 percent from the field and 25.0 percent from 3-point range.
Even though he’s yet to make a start this season, Jaquez is averaging 28.0 minutes per game — up 7.3 minutes per night from a season ago. On top of that, he’s averaging a career-high 11.3 field goal attempts per game, which has helped him score 17 or more points in three games in a row.
With Norman Powell out of the lineup against Charlotte, Jaquez finished with 28 points in 28:14 on 9-of-14 shooting from the field. He could be in line for an expanded offensive role once again on Thursday with Powell listed as doubtful.
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m buying the Spurs to cover the spread at home:
The Spurs and Heat are both perfect against the spread this season (San Antonio is 2-0-2 while Miami is 4-0), but I’m backing the Spurs at home on Thursday night.
Miami has gotten off to a great start, ranking third in the NBA in net rating, but it’s down multiple key players on offense on Thursday.
Tyler Herro (foot) remains out of the lineup while Norman Powell (groin) is doubtful. Powell, who is averaging 24.0 points per game, missed Miami’s last win over the Charlotte Hornets.
That leaves the Heat with very little offensive punch against a Spurs team that is second in the NBA in defensive rating this season. San Antonio can wall off the paint with Victor Wembanyama, and now the Heat are down their two best perimeter players.
Miami’s offense has been a revelation so far in the 2025-26 season compared to last season, but I don’t trust it to keep pace on the road against a Spurs team that looks like a legitimate contender for a playoff spot in the West.
Pick: Spurs -5.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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