Ebony Marinoff and Gabby O’Sullivan compete for the ball during the AFLW Semi-Final between Adelaide and Fremantle at Norwood Oval on November 16, 2024. Picture: AFL Photos
EVERYTHING is on the line with just one round to go.
Ten sides can mathematically still reach November action, with all bar two matches this weekend having a bearing on the finals make-up.
It’s bound to be a riveting final weekend of the home and away season. Ahead of round 12, AFL.com.au looks at the best- and worst-case scenarios for all 10 sides with something tangible still left to play for.
*We have not taken into account big percentage swings, which may also affect certain scenarios
v Hawthorn
Friday October 31, 7:15pm AEDT, Kinetic Stadium
Highest possible finish: 1st
Lowest possible finish: 1st
The Kangaroos have locked in the minor premiership having not lost a game all season. Even if they did lose to Hawthorn on Friday night, they will finish the home and away season on top of the ladder. The only thing on the line is whether this North Melbourne team will break the record for most consecutive wins in the AFL/VFL/AFLW, with victory against the Hawks securing their place in history.
North Melbourne players celebrate the win over St Kilda in R11, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
v North Melbourne
Friday October 31, 7:15pm AEDT, Kinetic Stadium
Highest possible finish: 2nd
Lowest possible finish: 4th
The Hawks have had another excellent season under coach Dan Webster and find themselves in second place on the ladder with one round remaining. They have saved their biggest challenge for last, meeting the reigning premiers on Friday night in Frankston. It’s the first time these two sides have ever met and the Hawks are looking forward to possibly ending the Kangaroos’ unbeaten run. If Hawthorn loses, it will still have the double chance, but would most likely face North again the following week in finals.
Elli Symonds is congratulated by teammates after kicking a goal during the AFLW R11 match between Essendon and Hawthorn at Windy Hill on October 25, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
v Geelong
Saturday November 1, 7:15pm AEDT, GMHBA Stadium
Highest possible finish: 2nd
Lowest possible finish: 4th
Melbourne has locked in a top-four spot having won eight games this season to date. The Demons will be hoping to win this weekend to avoid facing reigning premier North Melbourne in the first week of finals. If Melbourne loses and Brisbane wins, the Demons could finish fourth meaning they would then play the Kangaroos. Mick Stinear will be hoping his troops can get it done against Geelong in order to avoid the invincible Roos. If Melbourne, Brisbane and North win, then Melbourne will play Brisbane in the first final.
Kate Hore celebrates a goal during the AFLW R11 match between Brisbane and Melbourne at Brighton Homes Arena on October 25, 2025. Picture: Getty Images/AFL Photos
v Collingwood
Sunday November 2, 1:05pm AEDT, Victoria Park
Highest possible finish: 2nd
Lowest possible finish: 4th
Brisbane has secured the double chance, as the lowest it can possibly finish on the ladder is fourth. If the Lions win and the Hawks and the Demons lose, Brisbane could finish as high as second. If Brisbane loses and Hawthorn wins, the Lions could finish fourth and face the dreaded task of meeting North Melbourne in week one of finals. As mentioned above, if Brisbane, Melbourne and North win, then the Lions will play Melbourne in the first final.
Brisbane players celebrate victory after the AFLW R11 match against Melbourne at Brighton Homes Arena on October 25, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
v West Coast
Friday October 31, 6:15pm AWST, Sullivans Logistics Stadium
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: Miss finals
Carlton can guarantee a finals spot with a win over West Coast, but their season is not over even if they lose to the Eagles. If they lose on Friday night, they need two of Sydney, St Kilda and Adelaide to also lose in order to sneak into finals. If those three teams win, the Blues would likely finish ninth on percentage.
Carlton players celebrate a goal during the AFLW R11 match against GWS at Ikon Park on October 26, 2025. Picture: Getty Images/AFL Photos
v Western Bulldogs
Sunday, November 2, 3:05pm AEDT, RSEA Park
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: Miss finals
The Saints look set to make their first ever finals campaign as they currently sit in sixth position on the ladder. They’re similar to Carlton in that, if they win, they’re in. If they beat the Bulldogs then they will finish either fifth or sixth, depending on the Blues’ result. If they lose, they can still miss finals if West Coast, Adelaide and Sydney all finish with a win.
St Kilda players celebrate their win over Carlton in R10, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
v Carlton
Friday October 31, 6:15pm AWST, Sullivans Logistics Stadium
Highest possible finish: 5th
Lowest possible finish: Miss finals
Again, win and they’re in. If the Eagles lose, they will miss out on finals if Sydney wins. Given Sydney is playing Essendon, which has lost its last eight matches, you would assume that the Swans will get it done. Therefore it’s almost a must-win match for the Eagles, because if they’re relying on the Bombers beating the Swans, they could be in trouble.
Charlotte Riggs (left) and Lauren Wakfer celebrate during the AFLW R11 match between Sydney and West Coast at Henson Park on October 25, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
v Fremantle
Sunday November 1, 4:35pm ACDT, Norwood Oval
Highest possible finish: 6th
Lowest possible finish: Miss finals
The race for the final spot in the eight will go down to the final match of the round on Sunday afternoon. If the Crows win they make the finals. If they lose they will miss. Adelaide can finish as high as sixth if St Kilda loses.
Madison Newman celebrates a goal with teammates during the AFLW R9 match between Adelaide and West Coast at Norwood Oval on October 11, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
v Essendon
Saturday November 2, 5:05pm AEDT, C.ex Coffs International Stadium
Highest possible finish: 6th
Lowest possible finish: Miss finals
Sydney must win to make it to finals. If it loses, it is out and it doesn’t matter what happens when it comes to other results. If the Swans win, they can finish as high as sixth if St Kilda and Adelaide lose. If one of the Saints or Crows win, they will finish seventh and if the Crows and the Saints both win, the Swans finish eighth.
Rebecca Privitelli celebrates with Lulu Pullar after a goal during the AFLW R11 match between Sydney and West Coast at Henson Park on October 25, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
v Adelaide
Sunday November 1, 4:35pm ACDT, Norwood Oval
Highest possible finish: 6th
Lowest possible finish: Miss finals
Unfortunately for Fremantle, even if it wins it can still miss finals. If West Coast and Sydney both win, the Dockers will finish in ninth place, even with a victory over the Crows. The Dockers need one of the Swans or Eagles to lose to make the eight. By Sunday afternoon, the Dockers will have learned their fate and will know if they’re playing for their chance to reach finals.
Fremantle players celebrate after the AFLW R11 match against Richmond at Fremantle Community Bank Oval on October 25, 2025. Picture: AFL Photos
