The WTA Hong Kong action has now reached the quarterfinals. Here are my best bets for the matches later today. Please let me know in the comments if you agree with our picks. I have decided to post all four matches in one article for your convenience. Enjoy, and I look forward to reading your thoughts.
WTA Hong Kong
Cirstea – Fernandez: Time 13:00
H2H: 0-1
Sorana Cirstea and Leylah Fernandez just played in the semifinals of WTA Osaka, right before this, and now they meet in the quarterfinals of WTA Hong Kong. That match stands as Cirstea’s last loss, and Fernandez would go on to win that tournament. Cirstea now stands in the way of Fernandez making it to the semifinals at Hong Kong for the third year in a row. Their WTA Osaka match was fantastic viewing. The match went all three sets, and both women had their moments. Fernandez’s last loss was in the round of 16 at WTA Tokyo to Elena Rybakina. Fernandez is 8-2 in her last ten matches, and Cirstea is 7-3.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Fernandez as the favorite, and it’s pretty apparent why. Cirstea is having a solid run and is doing well overall this year at 30-19. She also has one title this year. Fernandez is 33-24 overall, and she has two titles, including the aforementioned WTA Osaka win. Fernandez has also been to the quarterfinals here three times in a row, won it once, and was a semifinalist here last year. She understands this court, and the books are giving her the benefit of the doubt. While I think Fernandez is the smart pick to win, I also think throwing $50-$100 on Cirstea at 2.63 isn’t the dumbest move in the world, especially if you have the spending money.
That being said, Cirstea is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Cirstea @2.63 @Betfair
Sakatsume – Joint: Time 08:30
H2H: 0-0
Himeno Sakatsume and Maya Joint will meet for the first time in Hong Kong. Sakatsume is thriving on the ITF scene this year. She’s 41-22 overall and 34-18 on a hardcourt this year. While ITF has been where she’s had most of her success, she’s not to be doubted at the WTA level, as she made the semis at WTA Porto, and has now reached the quarterfinals here in Hong Kong. Joint is continuing to prove that the sky is the limit for her in terms of her career. She’s 51-27 overall and 29-18 on a hardcourt, with two titles in 2025. At just 19, Joint is already a force to be reckoned with.
Best Bet to Make
Joint is the favorite in this match, but not even close to as large a favorite as she was in her last. I was shocked Morvayova was able to win five games, given how much of a favorite Joint was. You can also file that last match as one of the worst beats of the year, as I said under 16.5 was the ticket, and the match went 17. These books are good. This time around, Joint is closer to a 3.5-1 favorite. I like Joint winning 2:0 at 1.73 on several different sites. It doesn’t rely on getting the total number of games right, but rather a set total.
That being said, Joint winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Joint winning 2:0 @1.73 @Coral
Bencic – Bucsa: Time 07:00
H2H: 0-1
Cristina Bucsa and Belinda Bencic are set to meet for just the second time in their careers in Hong Kong. Bucsa won their only other match in the first round of WTA Cincinnati back in 2023. The two had a three-set back-and-forth match. The Spaniard is 33-30 on the year, and she’s only 23-19 on a hardcourt. Meanwhile, Bencic is 39-17 overall and 31-12 on a hardcourt this year. She also has two titles and has won all of her matches in this tournament in two sets. The longest match in terms of games was a 19-game match against Aliaksandra Sasnovich at the beginning of this tournament, so she’s finishing her opponents fairly quickly.
Best Bet to Make
Bencic is the top seed here in Hong Kong and a favorite to make the finals. She’s coming off a tournament victory against Linda Noskova at WTA Tokyo and a quarterfinal at WTA Ningbo. Most people think that the final will be her vs Leylah Fernandez, but she has to get past Bucsa, whom she has yet to beat. I do think Bencic is the smart pick here. Only four of her last ten matches have gone to a third set, and she’s playing as focused as ever. Bucsa has dropped four of her last ten matches and had a three-match losing streak during that period, as well. While she is riding a two-game streak, Bencic is riding a six-match winning streak.
That being said, Bencic winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Bencic winning 2:0 @1.80 @Bet365
Mboko – Kalinskaya: Time 11:30
H2H: 0-0
Our featured match is Anna Kalinskaya vs Victoria Mboko. This match comes at a time when both women could very much use a tournament victory to boost their profile toward the end of the calendar year. Kalinskaya is now 6-4 in her last ten matches, and Mboko is 5-5. Mboko is coming off an absolute barnburner versus Alexandra Eala. The two friends traded sets back and forth all evening, until Mboko finally managed to put Eala away in the third. Mboko has faced the tougher competition in her last two games, but that’s only because she drew Eala while Kalinskaya drew Shuai Zhang.
Best Bet to Make
This match is really interesting. The books have Kalinskaya as a very small favorite. The average is 1.88 to 1.91, so we’re talking small margins here. For the most part, this game is viewed as a draw. I think this game has the potential to go all three rounds. Both of these women are fighting like heck to finish strong at the end of the year. There’s an incentive for both of these women to leave it all out on the court as the year winds down. Kalinskaya has not won a tournament since 2023, and then 2019 before that. Give me over 2.5 sets for 2.5 on Pinnacle.
That being said, Over 2.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/the best odds: Over 2.5 sets @2.5 @Pinnacle
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
