Wales could slip outside the second band of seeds for the Rugby World Cup 2027 draw, depending on the result of Japan’s match against Australia in Tokyo this Saturday.
The Six Nations wooden spoonists climbed back up to 12th in the World Rugby Men’s Rankings from a record low of 14th when they squared their two-match series with Japan in July, with a 31-22 win in the second Test. However, they will drop to 13th if Eddie Jones can manufacture a shock result against his former charges.
A draw would be good enough for the Brave Blossoms to move up to 12th at Wales’ expense, ensuring they’re they’re in position to be in the second band when the draw takes place on Wednesday, 3 December. Teams ranked one to six will be in band one and teams ranked seventh to 12th will be in band two, and so on.
Japan have lost all six of their previous matches with Australia, by an average margin of 34 points. However, there was just nine points in it when they last met in Oita in 2021, the Wallabies winning 32-23.
While a draw is sufficient for them to move into the top 12, a historic win for Japan at the seventh attempt would see them take one step further up the rankings, to 11th, with Georgia falling to 12th and Wales in 13th.
In reality, the last place in band two is likely to be decided when Wales meet Japan at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff on Saturday, 15 November.
Wales won’t be the only Celtic country taking a keen eye on proceedings at the national stadium, as Scotland stand to benefit from any slip-up by the Wallabies.
A loss for the seventh-placed Wallabies would see them swap places with Scotland, who are currently eighth, and leave Gregor Townsend’s side tantalisingly close to breaking into the top six and band one.
As things stand, Scotland are 2.25 points in arrears of Argentina in sixth, who they meet at Murrayfield on Sunday, 16 November in what could be a make-or-break clash in terms of the draw.
Should the unthinkable happen and Australia lose by more than 15 points, Joe Schmidt’s team will fall an additional place to ninth, with Fiji moving up to eighth.
Australia cannot improve on sixth place this weekend if, as expected, they maintain their unblemished record against the Brave Blossoms.
They can improve their rating by just under half a point to 82.93 points, but that would still leave them adrift of fifth-ranked England, who they meet at Allianz Stadium, Twickenham, the weekend after next.
