The 2025 Flemington Spring Carnival kicks off with The Derby Day meeting where we see three Group 1 level races, which are the pinnacle level of racing throughout the world.
Firstly, The Derby, a 2500m race for young 3YO horses, it is a historical race first ran back in 1855.
This race is a chance for some of these young horses to show their staying potential, with some potentially hopeful to contest Melbourne Cups in their future.
The Coolmore Stud Stakes is a 1200m race down the straight and the feature 3YO sprint race of the Spring.
It is commonly known as a stallion-making race where winners can increase their value as a stud horse with this race win on their CV, but despite that, three fillies have still won this race in the last 10 years.
Finally, the Empire Rose Stakes is a Group 1-level race for fillies and mares only.
The popular Pride of Jenni will contest this race and look to make history as the first mare to win the race twice in the race’s 37-year history.
Saturday’s Weather Forecast – 22° and clear conditions forecast
Expected Track Conditions – Track will be a GOOD4 at the start of the day which is right in a perfect spot to be kicking off the 4 day carnival. Potentially the track will dry out some more during the meeting but expect a good surface
Rail Position – The rail will be in the +2m position for the entire track
Mitch Lewis’ Race Selections
Race #6- Group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes, 1200m, 3YO
(3) TENTYRIS
(12) MY GLADIOLA
(1) BEIWACHT
(7) RAGING FORCE
The Coolmore Stud Stakes is a premier 3YO sprint race on the racing calendar. It is run down the straight and has produced some of the country’s best stallions in recent years. The exciting TENTYRIS is the on top selection for the race. He made an impressive run from the back of the field late to win last start at Caulfield and defeat some key rivals he meets again here in the race, he has won down the straight before and will likely be making another big run from the back of the pack and sets up for an exciting finish.
In a race that is mostly known for the boys and their stallion credentials, it has been won be three fillies in the last 10 years and the sole filly in the race is MY GLADIOLA. She is not without a chance in this race given she does carry the lighter weight than the boys but importantly has run very well in her last two starts down this Flemington straight which is an encouraging sign.
This is the first time NSW visitor BEIWACHT has raced in Victoria, but in his last race, he won very impressively and in a very impressive time for a 3YO horse, he is the only runner in this race that has already won a Group 1 race. If he can transfer that form into this race, he could be extremely hard to beat.
RAGING FORCE is another NSW-based horse, but he has raced here in Victoria previously and ran a close 2nd to the on top selection TENTYRIS last start. He could be an improver, having had a run against some of these rivals already.
BEADMAN is an exciting prospect who is one of the favourites in this race. His better form has come on wet tracks, so while he is expected to run well, perhaps he won’t quite be at his best on a dry track.
LEGACY BOUND started his career in impressive fashion when winning three races in a row, including a win down this straight. He ran fourth last start, but he does look likely to be one of the leaders of the race and can give a good run for money as a roughie hope.
MCGAW looks the next best of the roughies in the race, he has mixed his form a little recently, but his best run recently came when he raced here at Flemington.
Race #7- Group 1 Victoria Derby, 2500m, 3YO
(1) OBSERVER
(3) AUTUMN MYSTERY
(5) OPTIONS
(6) PROVIDENCE
First held in 1855, the Victorian Derby is an event rich in tradition and history. It is a true staying test for 3YOs over the 2500m but is often met with controversy as some suggest the 2000m distance would be better suited for the 3Yos. But nonetheless, it is an exciting race and the feature event of Day 1 in the carnival.
The race favourite OBSERVER looks the horse to beat here after two impressive runs recently. He had some bad luck two starts ago which potentially cost him a chance to win a group 1 race, but he still managed to run third. He came out again last weekend and won at Group 2 level and could have blown the field away to win by a big margin, but jockey Mark Zahra looked after his horse late and jogged to the line to win.
This move saw Zahra cop a fine from stewards for not riding his mount out, but it could very well be an important move here giving OBSERVER a softer lead-up run for this.
One of the stories of the race is AUTUMN MYSTERY for young trainer Rory Hunter. He has won his last two runs including The Derby Preview here at Flemington in September, he is progressing well and showing good potential but might need luck early from a wide barrier.
OPTIONS did not have much luck last weekend in the race that was won by OBSERVER. With a clearer path there, he could have finished much closer and looks a runner who will very much appreciate a rise in distance to the 2500m.
PROVIDENCE is similar in the fact that you would expect he will enjoy the 2500m after he produced a fast finish in the group 2 race last week that OBSERVER won.
It was PROVIDENCE who ran the quickest last 600m of that race and nearly got past OBSERVER on the line. MIEWA looks the best of two chances for trainer Nick Ryan, he has run second in his last two starts but finished within 1 length of the winner on both occasions, so he looks close to a breakthrough win.
ENGINE OF WAR was one of the early market favourites for this race earlier in the season, but his form has waned slightly in his last few starts.
AZAZEL continues to rise well, having won two of his three career starts, including an important win last start in The Geelong Classic which can prove to be a strong form reference for this race.
Race #8- Group 1 Empire Rose Stakes, 1600m, 3YO
(1) PRIDE OF JENNI
(6) LEICA LUCY
(2) FANGIRL
(9) SPLASH BACK
Star mare PRIDE OF JENNI is looking to make history in this race and be the first mare to win this race twice after she won it in 2023. It will be a big achievement for the mare given the fact she has returned from retirement in the last 12 months.
The key to the race for PRIDE OF JENNI is the fact that she is blessed with good speed and can put rivals under pressure early in the race and in a race that lacks much speed, she looks as if she can get a comfortable run here and prove hard to catch like what we saw when she won at The Valley last month.
LEICA LUCY is an up-and-coming prospect who has showed good improvement this prep but still show signs of a runner not at her best. She can be a bit wayward but if she puts it all together in this race today, she could find that next level required.
FANGIRL is a star from the Chris Waller stable who is a multiple group 1 level winner. She is a star in her own right but can sometimes find it hard to catch runaway leaders and with PRIDE OF JENNI looking likely to get a soft run, she could have a challenging task in the straight to be making much ground up.
SPLASH BACK looks a good roughie play here. She was super when winning against track pattern under the lights at The Valley recently, she ran second last start but could be best suited at this 1600m trip on this bigger track.
ON DISPLAY will rise to the 1600m from the 1400m trip after she ran the quickest Last 600m sectional of any runner in this race in their last starts. She needs to take a step up in level to win here but represents good value.
IDLE FLYER has won three of her last four races, she is in career-best form and while this is a step up in level, she is running quick enough times to suggest she can go to a new level.
