Andy Schooler previews Saturday’s semi-finals at the Rolex Paris Masters.
Tennis betting tips: Paris Masters
1.5pts tie-break in Felix Auger-Aliassime v Alexander Bublik at 3/4 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
1pt Alex Zverev (+1.5) to beat Jannik Sinner on the set handicap at 31/20 (Unibet)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Felix Auger-Aliassime v Alexander Bublik (1330 GMT)
This match makes or breaks my whole season.
This tournament is effectively the last chance of landing a big-priced winner and with Bublik, outright followers have an 80/1 shot still running.
Win this semi-final and the place money face-saves what has been a miserable year featuring way too many dud previews like yesterday’s which saw all three tips lose. Of course, one did so from match point up.
However, lose and, well, you get the picture.
Frankly all I care about is the end result and that outright tip but I know that’s not cutting it for those of you not on that bet so let’s take a closer look, albeit it’s hard for me to sit here and not imagine how Bublik will lose this one.
The bookies actually make him a very marginal favourite (I don’t know if that’s good or bad) and a big reason for that is how well the Kazakh is serving right now.
He’s lost serve only once and that came in his opening match. Both Taylor Fritz and Alex de Minaur have failed to break Bublik’s booming delivery in the past couple of days. The latter was particularly surprising given the success he’d had against the Bublik serve in previous matches.
Auger-Aliassime will hope that pattern isn’t repeated.
The Canadian leads the head-to-head 3-1 on hardcourts, although it’s 1-1 on indoor hard.
What I would say is that Bublik has become a much more consistent player this year, with his rise beginning shortly after a three-set loss to FAA in Dubai.
I’d expect Auger-Aliassime to really go after the Bublik second serve which won just 35% of the points against De Mianur. That could be where this match is won and lost, although Bublik deserves great credit for emerging victorious in that quarter-final in spite of that stat.
FAA has himself been serving well – his first-serve points won figure has been well above the 80% mark in every round while, importantly, he’s also kept his second-serve figure up above 50% in each match too.
With both players possessing such strong serving numbers, tie-breaks look the way to go here.
The pair played two in Dubai earlier this season, while both have had two of their four matches this feature a breaker. 3/4 about another here is worth considering.
For something bigger, 5/2 about a first-set tie-break also looks tempting.
That’s occurred in two of their previous five meetings, while Bublik had 7-6 first sets against both De Minaur and Fritz in the past two rounds.
Alexander Zverev v Jannik Sinner (not before 1600 GMT)
I’m not really sure how Zverev came through Friday night’s battle with Daniil Medvedev.
While he was going for his shots – something he’s been criticised for not doing in big matches in the past – too many were going awry, especially in the 10th game of the final set which is when the forehand went right off and seemed to be gifting Medvedev victory.
However, even when Zverev dollied over a second serve when match point down, Medvedev failed to take advantage. It was the second match point missed and he wouldn’t get another.
As I watched yet another player I’d put up lose from match-point up, all I could think of was how other elite players would have just ripped a return winner on that point – Roger Federer, or more pertinently, Sinner.
Frankly, if Zverev plays as he did against Medvedev, Sinner should win this, no problem.
However, that doesn’t take into account that fact that Sinner has looked below-par physically in the last couple of rounds. Despite this, he’s still been way too good for Francisco Cerundolo and Ben Shelton which perhaps sums up just how much better than anyone else he and Carlos Alcaraz have been this year.
It would seem silly for Sinner to be pushing too hard given the ATP Finals are now little over a week away but perhaps he’s being motivated by the fact he’ll reclaim the world number one spot if he wins the title here in Paris on Sunday.
What is certainly worth saying is that whatever shape Sinner takes to the court in, Zverev seems to relish this match-up.
It’s 4-4 on the head-to-head, 3-3 on hardcourts and 1-1 on indoor hard. Four of the last five have gone to a deciding set, including last weekend’s final in Vienna which Sinner won 7-5 in the third.
Given that, and Sinner’s injury issue, the handicap markets make some appeal.
Zverev gets a 4.5-game start, while you can get 31/20 about him covering the +1.5 sets line.
The German has won a set in seven of the eight previous meetings, the one exception being this year’s Australian Open final.
His backhand can create some great angles and should get Sinner stretching for plenty of balls, which may awkward given his current condition.
I’m far from convinced after the woes of recent days, but let’s try a small bet on Zverev claiming that set at 31/20.
Preview posted at 1030 GMT on 01/11/2025
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