Jake’s Predictions 25/26: Staked 135.50pts | Returned 172.77pts | P/L +37.27pts | ROI 28%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 20:00 – Liverpool vs Aston Villa
1pt Emi Martinez to be carded at 6/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Aston Villa or draw and Emi Martinez to be carded at 13/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
Sunday 14:00 – West Ham vs Newcastle
2.5pts Malick Thiaw 1+ total shot at 5/6 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Malick Thiaw to score anytime at 11/1 (bet365)
Sunday 16:30 – Manchester City vs Bournemouth
1.5pts Alex Jimenez to commit 1+ foul and win 1+ foul at 6/5 (bet365)
Monday 20:00 – Sunderland vs Everton
1pt Granit Xhaka to be carded at 4/1 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair
Don’t you just love the new set-piece-centric Premier League? Well, maybe you don’t from a ‘beautiful game’ perspective, but you absolutely should from a punting perspective.
So far this season the Premier League has seen 27.8% of all goals scored from set-pieces, that’s way up on the league average since 2015/16 (21.7%), while the percentage of goals scored from corners (18.7%) is on course to smash the previous record (14.2% in 2010/11).
That increase hasn’t been factored into the prices of big centre-back scoring threats, and it’s been one of the ways we’ve profited this season, with Joe Rodon delivering for us last season. Long may it continue.
Last weekend delivered +8.4pts profit to help us bounce back from two losing weeks, and we’ve yet more centre-back scorers in focus this weekend, along with the usual player cards and a sprinkle of the more ‘traditional markets’.
Liverpool vs Aston Villa
All is not well at Liverpool. The reigning Premier League champions have lost six of their last seven games in all competitions, losing four on the spin in the league, with performances concerning enough to see Arne Slot’s price to be the next manager sacked slashed.
This is a really awkward game for the out of sorts Reds, with Aston Villa just a very difficult team to predict. Their data this season suggests they should be in the bottom three, but Unai Emery has somehow guided his side to four straight league wins, including against Manchester City last weekend.
Let’s be frank, an upset wouldn’t be a huge surprise at this stage. If that is to happen, you can just bet EMI MARTINEZ will be up to all sorts of antics, and at 6/1 his price TO BE CARDED appeals as a single, as well as VILLA DOUBLE CHANCE AND MARTINEZ CARDED at 13/1.
We are staking in this manner because I feel the 6/1 is worth backing on it’s own given six of Martinez’s 13 cards since the start of 23/24 have come through fouls, dissent or fighting. Seven have come from time wasting when his side have been leading, so the 13/1 is pretty obvious, but I don’t want to go all in on that given there is a chance Villa get beaten and Martinez still gets carded.
This bet comes alive with the referee too. Stuart Attwell has booked a goalkeeper in eight of his last 10 Premier League and Championship matches stretching back to last season, an incredible strike-rate, and somewhat ironically, Emi Martinez is responsible for two of those cards – both for timewasting
He really has a thing for booking keepers, and while it is usually for delaying the game, he’ll happily get a yellow or red out for fouls too. That was seen the last time he refereed Aston Villa when stand-in keeper Marco Bizot was booked for giving a penalty away.
I’ll happily take the chance Martinez does something to wind Attwell up and get a card, or pull out all the stops should Villa be level or leading late on. Liverpool’s defensive issues mean every team they play has a chance, while absences in midfield could prove an issue now Villa are back to full strength, so a result for the visitors is absolutely on the cards.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 1630 (30/10/25)
West Ham vs Newcastle
Are West Ham doomed? Results and performances have been shocking, the squad building is appalling for the modern Premier League and there is an immense amount of unrest at the club.
Nuno Espirito Santo’s appointment hasn’t had the desired effect, picking up just one point in four league games, with their last two displays awful against sides forecast at the start of the season to be in the relegation mix (Brentford and Leeds).
On Sunday they welcome in-form Champions League side Newcastle, so a fifth home league defeat of the season could be on the cards. The bet here though is to go back to the centre-back goalscorer well.
Joe Rodon struck against West Ham for us last week, becoming the fifth centre-back to score against the Hammers this season, and this week we’ll chance MALICK THIAW 1+ TOTAL SHOTS at 5/6 and TO SCORE ANYTIME at 11/1.
Thiaw has had a shot in all of his last four, taking six in that time, taking his average in the league to 1.19 shots per 90, while his xG per 90 of 0.13 is very good for a centre-back.
He should get at least one chance here, with the Hammers having conceded 16 shots to centre-backs in nine games, and we have to take a swing at the prices.
Fabian Schar is 15/2 to score anytime, and as short as 11/2 in places, which is too short but understandable given he’s scored 12 times since the start of 23/24, while I’ll reluctantly leave Dan Burn out at 11/1 given he’s only managed three shots in nine league games this season.
Score prediction: West Ham 0-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1200 (31/10/25)
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
For some reason, Jeremy Doku has been dropped from Manchester City’s Premier League starting XI. BBBBBOOOOOOOO!
Doku has been in scintilating form this season, but has fallen into the midweek XI in the last few outings, having to deal with coming off the bench on weekends. Hopefully that doesn’t remain for a long period, but either way I’m going to back Bournemouth right-back ALEX JIMENEZ TO COMMIT 1+ FOULS at WIN 1+ FOUL.
Jimenez is 11/4 to be carded which initially appealed given he’s been carded in three of six appearances (315 mins), but with Anthony Taylor the man in the middle, taking fouls makes more sense given how lenient the great man can be.
Taylor has reffed Manchester City eight times since the start of last season and delivered an average of 1.1 cards per game, producing four zero card games in that span. Immediately, even before finding that stat, I was looking at a no card game at 25/1, but Bournemouth are a foul-heavy and card-heavy team so I can’t pull the trigger.
Back to Jimenez, he’s not a prolific fouler but he’s rarely been put in this kind of position – up against direct dribblers who will challenge him every time they get the ball. Even so he’s averaged 1.14 fouls per 90 and up in class and against Savinho, Oscar Bobb or Jeremy Doku, he could get caught at least once.
And, doubling him up to win a foul boosts the price too given City’s wingers are aggressive in their approach. Last weekend Savinho committed two fouls on Matty Cash and is averaging 1.07 fouls per 90 this season, and will likely be Jimenez’s opponent here.
Jimenez was fouled twice last week and once the week before, averaging 1.14 fouls won per 90 in the Premier League, so we’ll take a Jimenez-centric approach.
For those wanting something different, Joe and Jimmy have you covered in the match preview.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1515 (31/10/25)
Sunderland vs Everton
Everton are playing, so with a good referee appointment we have to be looking to profit from Jack Grealish getting kicked. The tricky winger has been fouled 31 times in his last seven outings at an average of 4.91 per 90.
Thomas Bramall is the man in with the whistle, and he heads to the Stadium of Light fresh off a nine card game in the Carabao Cup (8Y 1R). In Premier League and Carabao games this season he’s averaged 4.0 cards per game, showing three reds too.
So, we’ll take a punt on our good old friend, Sunderland captain GRANIT XHAKA TO BE CARDED 4/1. He operates in the right channel of Sunderland’s midfield, meaning he’ll likely cross paths with Grealish a lot on Monday. The right back would be the obvious candidate, but the Black Cats could play Trai Hume or Nordi Mukiele in that spot, so we’ll take the midfield card magnet instead.
Xhaka has been booked three times this season and is highly likely to commit at least one cynical foul on the slippery Grealish, while there is even a chance this bet wins thanks to his clashes with Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, who has been fouled 1.63 times per 90 this season.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1550 (31/10/25)
Football betting tips: Premier League
Saturday 15:00
1.5pts Leeds +0.5 Asian Handicap vs Brighton at 39/40 (bet365)
2.5pts Arsenal win to nil vs Burnley at 19/20 (William Hill)
1pt Burnley under 5.5 total shots at 2/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Burnley under 3.5 total shots at 6/1 (bet365)
1pt Marshall Munetsi to be carded in Fulham vs Wolves at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
2pts Under 2.5 goals in N Forest vs Man Utd at 11/10 (General)
1.5pts Douglas Luiz to be carded in N Forest vs Man Utd at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 17:30 – Tottenham vs Chelsea
2pts Micky Van de Ven 1+ total shot at 6/5 (bet365)
0.5pt Micky Van de Ven 1+ shot on target at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Micky Van de Ven to score anytime at 14/1 (Sky Bet)
Brighton vs Leeds
Whenever Brighton are playing a side outside of the top six, we have to take them on. They record against the best sides is excellent especially at home but against the lesser teams not so good.
Last season against non-big six sides they won just three of 13, and since the start of the 23/24 season they’ve won just 10 of 28, making LEEDS +0.5 ASIAN HANDICAP (same as double chance market) a solid proposition at near even money.
We’ve seen five of the last six newly promoted sides go to the AMEX and avoid defeat, and I think it’s fair to say this Leeds team are far better than those teams, with performances in recent weeks that of a top half side.
Daniel Farke’s have won the xG battle in six of their nine league games this season, and all of the last four generating 1.91 xGF and allowing just 0.61 xGA per game in the last quartet.
Brighton always have an issue breaking down sides the approach in a deep block and Leeds will likely set up in a similar way here giving them a great chance of getting a result.
Score prediction: Brighton 1-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 1400 BST (30/10/25)
Burnley vs Arsenal
This may seem an obvious one, but sometimes you can’t avoid the obvious. In midweek Arsenal became the first English top fight club to win six games in a calendar month all to nil, and this weekend we have to back yet another success with a shutout.
Mikel Arteta’s side travel to Burnley on Saturday and ARSENAL WIN TO NIL has to be snapped up at 19/20. It’s a bet that has won in 10 of Arsenal’s 13 games across all competitions, with only top five sides from last season breaching them (Liverpool, Manchester City and Newcastle).
This game sees the best defence take on the worst attack with Arsenal allowing the lowest xGA in the league (5.2 – 0.58 pg), the fewest goals (3 – 0.33 pg), the fewest shots (72 – 8.0 pg) and shots on target (19 – 2.1 pg).
Burnley meanwhile have generated the lowest expected goals tally (6.8 – 0.76 pg) taking a few shots (71 – 7.9 pg) and fourth fewest shots on target (28 – 3.1 pg).
As well as the obvious I think this could be a good opportunity to get greedy and take on Burnley’s shot lines. Arsenal have conceded a league low 72 shots this season but 22 of those came in their season opener at Old Trafford, meaning they’ve conceded just 50 shots in the last eight matches at an average of 6.25 per game.
In that period no side has taken more than nine shots, not even Liverpool, Manchester City or Newcastle, with sides thought to be in the relegation mix racking up three (Leeds), five (Nottingham Forest) and four (West Ham) shot against Arsenal.
Burnley’s home games have seen them rack up shot tallies of seven (Sunderland), three (Liverpool), 12 (Nottingham Forest) and four (Leeds), despite them facing a kind schedule, so chancing BURNLEY UNDER 5.5 TOTAL SHOTS at 2/1 and UNDER 3.5 TOTAL SHOTS at 6/1 seem worthwhile.
Score prediction: Burnley 0-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1415 (30/10/25)
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
My initial thought heading into this game was that Crystal Palace look a big price here at 19/20. The Eagles, fresh from Carabao Cup victory at Anfield in midweek, are winless in three league games but have played well in all three and have lost twice thanks to fine margins.
Oliver Glasner’s side continue to put up some excellent underlying data, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them get back to winning ways here against a Brentford side who have benefitted from playing three of their last four at home, taking a couple of scalps on the way.
I would lean home win, but it’s a no bet.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-1 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1420 (30/10/25)
Fulham vs Wolves
This could be a pivotal game for both teams. Fulham sit fourth bottom following a poor start to the season, while Wolves are rock bottom and winless, with their manager Vitor Pereira heavily backed to be the next man to leave his post (4/11).
It’s got a must-win feel to it, for both sides, and with a good referee appointment in John Brooks (5.07 cards per game last season), cards could be the way in.
Wolves played right on the edge in the Carabao Cup in midweek, they were fired up, and I suspect we see a similar approach here. At the prices, MARSHALL MUNETSI TO BE CARDED looks like the best value at 9/2.
He’s averaged 1.95 fouls per 90 this season and has already collected a card, with the physically imposing midfielder not afraid to mix it. He’s a best price of 8/11 to commit 2+ fouls, which, with this ref, brings the card into play and at a bigger price we’ll take the chance.
I wouldn’t put anyone off doubling him up with either Sasa Lukic (21/10 general) or Sander Berge (4/1 William Hills), but we’ll take the single.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1435 (30/10/25)
Nottingham Forest vs Manchester United
Sean Dyche football delivered for us last weekend, and it can do so again, with UNDER 2.5 GOALS the play at 11/10.
Nottingham Forest were in such a defensive mess it was always going to be Dyche’s first port of call to make them tough to beat again, create a solid foundation to work off, and he has so far delivered.
Across two games against Portuguese league leaders Porto and current second place team in the Premier League Bournemouth, Forest have allowed a combined 1.18 xGA. Forest conceded more than that in each of Ange Postecoglou’s final seven games in charge.
The Cherries won 2-0 last weekend thanks to a goal direct from a corner and a 30-yard strike, with Dyche-ball limiting even the most potent of attacks to no big chances.
The Dyche experience wouldn’t be what it is though without issues in attack. Forest haven’t scored a non-penalty goal in his two games, and have generated a combined 0.66 non-penalty xGF. Yikes.
We simply have to back a repeat here as Dyche continues to look to steady the ship, and maybe even after he’s steadied it, with Under 2.5 clicking in 60% (implied odds of 4/6) of his last 80 games as a Premier League manager.
Manchester United have looked livelier of late, but both games against Liverpool and Brighton were played in an open, you-attack-we-attack manner, whereas this most certainly won’t be.
We’ll also have a play on DOUGLAS LUIZ TO BE CARDED at 11/4. The Brazilian midfielder will be tasked with managing United’s two number 10s and the advancing Bruno Fernandes, the trio excellent at drawing fouls.
In total that trio that have started the game for the Red Devils have drawn 46 fouls in nine games (5.11 per game), with six opposition midfielders booked. Luiz was booked last weekend, his first in three league appearances, was carded twice in just 500 minutes for Juventus last season and picked up a whopping 12 cards the season before when at Aston Villa.
The referee here is Darren England, a decent appointment for card backers having flashed 4.2 per league game this season.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 0-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Tottenham vs Chelsea
Tottenham head into the weekend in third place in the Premier League – THIRD. They’ve been uninspiring to say the least, performances suggesting they’ve been the 13th best team in the league this season (on xP), while they have been a miserable follow at home.
A return of W1 D1 L2 is not what you’d expect to see from the side two spots off the top, especially with both defeats coming against good sides (Bournemouth and Aston Villa). Chelsea will be fancying their chances here.
An away win was tempting here at 8/5, but as discussed last weekend, we have to take centre-back scorers against Chelsea given the data. The Blues have been the worst defensive team in the league from dead-balls this season according to xGA (6.1 – 0.68 per game), and it just so happens that Spurs are becoming set-piece specialists.
Dan Ballard hit the target for us after just a minute for Sunderland last weekend, registering the 15th shot from centre-backs against Chelsea this season, and this week the vote goes to in-form MICKY VAN DE VEN, who has bizarrely been priced up at 6/5 for 1+ TOTAL SHOT, 4/1 for 1+ SHOT ON TARGET and 14/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME – despite him being Tottenham’s top scorer this season.
Yes, you read that right. The Dutch defender has scored five goals in all competitions, starting in the UEFA Super Cup, making him Spurs’ top scorer, so the 14/1 has to be snapped up against a Chelsea side who ship a load of chances from dead-ball situations.
He’s registered a shot in eight of his 13 games this season at an average of 0.85 per 90, while he’s fired a shot on target in five of those at an average of 0.47, making both the above prices value.
Fresh off a brace last weekend against Everton, he really has his eye in at the moment, and his xG per 90 of 0.18 is excellent for a centre-back – it is in fact league leading. It may seem unlikely that a defender follows up a brace with another goal, but given the prominence of set-piece goals this season, I wouldn’t be so sure.
Score prediction: Tottenham 2-3 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 20/1)
Odds correct at 1600 (30/10/25)
Odds correct at 1500 (30/10/25)
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