Inside the Market’s roundup of some of today’s key analyst actions
Rogers Communications Inc. (RCI.B-T) is poised to benefit from the success of the Toronto Blue Jays in the fourth quarter, according to Desjardins Securities analyst Jerome Dubreui, who expects both a “positive contribution” from the team’s World Series campaign as well as the company’s other sports assets moving forward.
“The Blue Jays’ strong playoff run, combined with the start of the NHL and NBA seasons, positions RCI for a strong 4Q media quarter that should more than offset the tough comp from last year’s Taylor Swift concerts,“ he said in a report released Friday titled RCI looking for a home run with the monetization of sports assets. “We have increased our 4Q media estimates to reflect stronger baseball-related revenue.
Rogers gets brand boost from Blue Jays’ World Series run
“RCI’s next major catalyst. Sports has emerged as a central theme for RCI in recent months, as investors look to future monetization events. Amid expectations that RCI will buy Kilmer Group’s 25-per-cent stake in MLSE by next July, it was reassuring to hear management confirm that credit agencies are aware of the MLSE consolidation plan —no equity financing will likely be needed to bridge the gap between the buyout of Kilmer and the sale of the minority stake in MLSE. We now have less upside to our target price but believe the monetization roadmap and our expectation of a relatively stable telecom environment still make the stock attractive.”
Mr. Dubreuil saw Rogers’ third-quarter financial report, released before the bell on Thursday and sending its shares 3.7 per cent higher during the trading day, as “a slightly positive update … with the highlight being its FCF guidance increase.”
“The announced capex reduction appears to be sustainable with the Shaw integration nearing completion, higher efficiency and fewer deployments in some communities,” he added. “In the near term, we expect gradual improvement in the telecom business, with the next major catalyst being the monetization of the company’s sports assets.”
The analyst also noted Rogers reported its first wireless network revenue decline since the pandemic, emphasizing that segment should be a focus of investors in the near term.
“Despite the recent stabilization of the wireless promotional environment, we are not yet seeing improvement in ARPU [average revenue per user] growth,” he said. “In 4Q, we expect the lapping of last year’s subscriber base adjustment will make it challenging for RCI to report material ARPU growth improvement vs 3Q. The big test, which we believe could matter more to the stock than the financials reported today, will be whether competition heats back up during Black Friday.”
Maintaining his “buy” recommendation for Rogers shares, Mr. Dubreuil raised his target to $56 from $53. The average on the Street is $57.12.
Elsewhere, other analysts making target changes include:
* National Bank’s Adam Shine to $60 from $59 with an “outperform” rating.
“Key focus is to surface value of sports assets not in stock RCI will initiate buy of other 25 per cent of MLSE early in 3Q26 and then recapitalize sports/media assets. Sale of minority interest in some or all of its sports & other media assets is to occur concurrently with this process or after in 2H26,” he said.
* Scotia’s Maher Yaghi to $57.75 from $55.75 with a “sector perform” rating.
“Operationally we view the wireless and cable segment results in Q3 favorably within the context of the elevated competitive pressures that the industry is going through,” said Mr. Yaghi. “In order to unlock value from MLSE/Jays, Rogers needs to first buy the remaining 25-per-cent owned by Kilmer Sports (Rogers is estimating the price tag at $3.3-billion) and then sell a minority interest to private equity or undertake an IPO to unlock upside. If done successfully this could unlock around $5/share in the stock (see our MLSE playbook note for more details). We believe this monetization could occur in 2H26. As it relates to deleveraging, the company still has a few assets that could be monetized (towers, ARs on the Rogers credit card, real estate). Beyond those, we need to see better cash conversion as we estimate the pro forma LTM payout ratio including MLSE at around 90-93 per cent now that the DRIP has been removed. Our target has slightly increased as a result of assuming that the takeout of Kilmer Sports
* TD Cowen’s Vince Valentini to $64 from $62 with a “buy” rating.
“Rogers healthily beat the Street’s low expectations on a number of metrics, except ARPU and wireless service revenue (down 3.2. per cent and 0.3 per cent year-over-year, respectively). Strengthening wireless industry fundamentals point to wireless service revenue growth moving forward and stabilizing ARPU through H2 2026. The monetization of the sports assets provides another leg up over the NTM. RCI.B remains our top pick,” said Mr. Valentini.
* Canaccord Genuity’s Aravinda Galappatthige to $57 from $55 with a “buy” rating.
“We consider Rogers’ Q3/25 results to be net positive despite a flat wireless service revenue result due to good sub loading, churn, and a FCF guidance increase. The SportsCo monetization and related balance sheet de-levering remain a central component of the thesis. Considering an improving competitive backdrop, a 10-per-cent FCF yield, and the aforementioned catalyst, we maintain our BUY rating,” he said.
=====
“Looking past short-term macro headwinds,” TD Cowen analyst Tim James upgraded FirstService Corp. (FSV-Q, FSV-T) to “buy” from “hold” previously, seeing “a compelling forward valuation for a high-quality, defensive, multi-year compounder that we view as well-insulated from a challenging trade and economic environment” following a recent sell-off that has seen its shares slid 20 per cent.
The Toronto-based TSX-listed shares fell 9.7 per cent on Thursday following the premarket release of its third-quarter results and guidance update, which included a “modest” 3-per-cent reduction in its EBITDA expectation, which Mr. James called an impressive result, given the economic backdrop.
“We believe the weak share-price response to Q3/25 results will eventually give way to a renewed focus on the business’ unchanged longterm earnings and M&A potential,” he explained. “The market has been spoiled by the relative stability and predictability of FSV’s historical results. We believe investors should appreciate strong b/s, economic resiliency, acquisition-minded management, and FCF.”
Mr. James added: “We view the small 2025 guidance reduction as immaterial to long-term thesis. Guidance change due to external factors as opposed to execution. Business represents relatively defensive and resilient investment that has not participated in recent equity market strength/ valuation expansion. Decreased target price due to the net impact of slightly lower forecasts and the shifting forward of valuation period to Q4/26-Q3/27. Forecast update reflects the net impact of Q3/25, bias lower to 2025 guidance (implied change of 3 per cent to adjusted EBITDA), recent Roofing Corp tuck-in acquisitions, and other minor modeling updates.”
Believing its current valuation no longer reflects his “positive view of the business, growth opportunities and risk profile,” he trimmed his target by US$1 to US$213. The average target on the Street is US$203.33.
Elsewhere, Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta raised FirstService to “sector outperform” from “sector perform” with a US$205, down from US$220.
“Good entry point post 10-per-cent sell-off [Thursday], and meaningful 30+pt underperformance relative to TSX year-to-date: While Q3/25 EBITDA was in line, weaker outlook in FSB (roofing and restoration) led to 8-per-cent reduction in our Q4/25 EBITDA estimate – this led to 10-per-cent price decline [Thursday] (excessive in our view),” he said. “We recommend buying the weakness as FSV is trading at 15 times 2026 EV/EBITDA multiple, 3 turns below historical average of 18 times, & closer to historical lows. On relative basis, FSV is trading at a smaller premium to TSX Composite.
“Q4/25 looks challenging but could be the inflection point: We expect negative 2-per-cent year-over-year organic growth in Q4/25 (vs down 0.4 per cent in Q3/25), low-single digit in H1/26, and mid-single digit in H2/26. Our H2 recovery is based on easy comps & better macro (vs tariff uncertainty this year). Despite slower organic growth, EPS growth is still in double-digits: 15-per-cent year-over-year growth in 2025 and 10 per cent in 2026.”
Meanwhile, CIBC’s Erin Kyle cut her target to US$216 from US$225 with an “outperformer” rating.
“Shares of FSV were down 10 per cent [Thursday] as the market reacted to softer organic growth and macro-driven challenges in the roofing segment. We believe these pressures are cyclical in nature and not reflective of the underlying strength of the business. After revising our model to incorporate our expectation of softer roofing revenue, our price target goes to $216,” she said.
=====
Scotia Capital analyst Phil Hardie is now forecasting an average total return of almost 30 per cent for Canadian diversified financial companies in his coverage universe over the next twelve months, seeing “a growing range of attractive opportunities.”
“The non-bank financial sector has been an active space over the past six months given an evolving landscape, key corporate developments and M&A activity,” he said a client report released on Friday. “A divergence in stock performance has altered our pecking order and created new investment opportunities. This uneven stock performance is not surprising given the diverse range of companies and business models under our coverage, but it does underscore the importance of stock selection in current market conditions. We expect the Non-bank Financial space to remain a strong source of alpha generation. The sector includes a diverse range of companies and business models with varying degrees of macro sensitivities.
“We view the weakness across several ‘quality compounders’ as a buying opportunity and are adopting more of a growth bias as we head into 2026. Our preference for stocks with relatively low valuations that offer attractive returns with upside driven by a combination of earnings, book value, or NAV growth and dividends has yielded solid results. The recent market rally has left several ‘quality compounders’ behind, creating what we view as a good buying opportunity. The market tone is likely favoring the value-cyclical trade, however we are looking a bit further ahead and taking more of an out of consensus opportunistic approach. Given a complex landscape with lingering uncertainties, we are taking a nuanced approach with a preference toward ‘resilient growth’.”
Ahead of earnings season in the sector, Mr. Hardie reaffirmed TMX Group Ltd. (X-T) as his top pick for the year ahead, emphasizing his “bias toward resilient growth.“
“We think investors are underestimating the resilience of the company’s earnings momentum and the stock offers an attractive combination of resilience and growth, and is emerging as a solid ‘quality compounder,’” he said. “A key differentiator among Canadian Financial Services peers is its proven ability to generate outperformance during periods of heightened market stress. We believe TMX Group is a core holding for navigating market volatility and through market cycles. With expected one-year upside of almost 45 per cent, TMX is our top pick heading into 2026.”
He maintained a “sector outperform” rating and Street-high $70 target for TMX shares. The average is currently $61.94.
Mr. Hardie also made these target revisions:
- Element Fleet Management Corp. (EFN-T, “sector outperform”) to $42 from $40. Average: $43.26.
- Onex Corp. (ONEX-T, “sector outperform”) to $153 from $150. Average: $147.33.
- Power Corp. of Canada (POW-T, “sector outperform”) to $68 from $65. Average: $61.57.
- Propel Holdings Inc. (PRL-T, “sector outperform”) to $40 from $43. Average: $45.69.
“For defensive quality, our top name remains Intact. We believe mid-cap GARP investors looking for a combination of resilience and growth will find Element as an attractive opportunity. Our top value-ideas include: Fairfax, Onex, Power Corp. and Brookfield Business Partners. Our top small cap growth plays include Trisura, goeasy and Propel,” he said.
=====
National Bank Financial‘s Matt Kornack thinks StorageVault Canada Inc.’s (SVI-T) “sustained” outperformance and a “solid” set-up for the fourth quarter has prompted a return to its long-term average growth.
Shares of the Toronto-based company slid 2.8 per cent on Thursday following the release of third-quarter results that fell largely in line with the analyst’s expectations. Funds from operations per share, adjusted for transaction costs, of 7.1 cents topped both Mr. Kornack’s 7-cent estimate and the consensus projection of 6.9 cents. Net operating income, including management fees, also narrowly topped his forecast, while G&A and interest expense were lower.
“The quarter was functionally in line but ever so slightly ahead on top-line metrics notwithstanding lower than normal in-place occupancy levels,” he said.
“After putting up better than expected Q2 figures, SVI delivered consistently high organic growth in Q3 (albeit relative to a weaker prior year comp). Nonetheless, the business saw 100 bps occupancy improvement year-over-year to 86 per cent (for this time of year it still should be in the 88-90-per-cent range, representing future upside). The hand off is nonetheless positive for Q4 figures as in-place today is roughly 200 bps higher than the average achieved in the last quarter of 2024. Seasonal weakness is anticipated but nonetheless with 4.4 per cent SPNOI [same-property net operating income] growth to date, management is comfortable they will fall within their long-term anticipated growth range of 4-6 per cent (something that didn’t look possible this time last year). This while capex has come down, improving free cash flow generation.”
After updating his forecast to reflect the results as well as “modest tweaks” to his assumed growth rates and margins projections, Mr. Kornack raised his target for StorageVault shares to $6.25 from $6, keeping an “outperform” rating. The average on the Street is $5.80.
“Given recent transaction activity with cap rates starting with a 3 4, we still see significant valuation upside to SVI’s current trading levels.”
Elsewhere, other analysts making revisions include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $6 from $5 with a “buy” rating.
“3Q results reaffirmed our confidence that fundamentals troughed earlier this year,” he said. “SP NOI once again came in at 5.2 per cent, driven by a second consecutive quarter of occupancy gains, improving rate growth and declining incentives. In our view, the ongoing recovery in self-storage demand should set up SVI to resume double-digit bottom-line growth in 2026/27.”
* Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Rothschild to $5.75 from $5 with a “buy” rating.
“Although there has been significant new supply delivered, move-out activity has stabilized and we expect same-property NOI growth to remain healthy in the mid-single digit range throughout our forecast period,” he said.
* Raymond James’ Brad Sturges to $5.75 from $5.50 with an “outperform” rating.
“Institutional investor interest remains strong for direct Canadian storage real estate, as illustrated by recent larger portfolio transactions executed in both Vancouver and Montreal markets at low going-in cap rates in the 3-4-per-cent range. The potential combination for sequential, gradual improvements in SP-NOI growth year-over-year and easing near-term debt refinancing headwinds could support our forecast for StorageVault to generate low double-digit 2026E AFFO/share growth year-over-year,” said Mr. Sturges.
* RBC’s Jimmy Shan to $6 from $5.75 with an “outperform” rating.
“Another quarter of more than 5-per-cnet SP NOI growth strengthens our conviction that SVI can deliver healthy growth despite a sluggish environment,” said Mr. Shan. “Going forward, we are modeling 3-4-per-cent SP NOI growth in the next two years and with some interest rate savings, expect high-single-digit, low double-digit FFO growth. SVI’s valuation, at implied 5.9-per-cent cap, remains well supported by large portfolio trades this year in the 4-per-cent range as well as heightened potential public M&A activity in the storage space globally.”
* CIBC’s Dean Wilkinson to $5.50 from $4.75 with a “neutral” rating.
“With the stock up almost 30 per cent year-to-date, SVI has closed its valuation gap with U.S. peers and we expect its total return profile and price momentum could moderate from here,” said Mr. Wilkinson.
=====
Desjardins Securities analyst Chris MacCulloch sees Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T) in “extra innings of efficiency” following the release of its 2026 guidance, which he thinks “highlighted improvements in cost structures stemming from the Veren transaction.”
“After posting the largest CFPS beat within the Desjardins E&P coverage universe during 2Q25 reporting this summer, WCP delivered another whopper of a quarterly update, which included beats across most key performance metrics,“ said Mr. MacCulloch. ”However, the focal point was the release of 2026 guidance, which seemingly caught the Street off-guard as capex came in $500-million below consensus (and previous corporate messaging) while the production target closely aligned, reflecting continued improvements in capital efficiencies and enhanced transaction synergies. Notably, the savings from the diminished capital program will be primarily allocated to shareholder pockets as management softly guided to $300-million of buybacks in 2026 on the conference call as part of a targeted 12-per-cent TSR at US$60/bblWTI (7-per-cent dividend yield + 3-per-cent production growth + 2-per-cent buybacks).
“Meanwhile, we expect WCP to remain defensive within the context of softer oil prices as it continues digesting the Veren assets, where we expect additional synergies and asset optimization opportunities to surface before Montney production begins ramping late next year. However, there are operational catalysts in the story, particularly with respect to upcoming well results at Karr and Gold Creek, where the company plans to pilot a new plug-and-perf completion design. Further out, focus shifts to Lator and Resthaven given their importance to future growth optionality. Keep your eye on the ball”
Mr. MacCulloch made positive estimate revisions for the Calgary-based company following the release, noting its development program also “continued laying the foundation for next major leg of corporate production growth from Lator moving into late 2026/early 2027, a timeline that broadly aligns with our expectation for improved oil prices.”
Reaffirming his “buy” rating for Whitecap shares, he raised his target to $13.50 from $13. The average is $13.69.
=====
National Bank Financial analyst Giuliano Thornhill sees Automotive Properties Real Estate Investment Trust‘s (APR.UN-T) $52.5-million acquisition of three properties in Dorval, Que., as the “creation of a trophy asset,” pointing to ”the CPI-linked rental structure, high tenant/OEM brand quality, and adjacently held Mazda Les Source.”
Resuming coverage of the Toronto-based REIT following the close of a public offering and concurrent private placement for $48.8-million, Mr. Thornhill sees the deal, which involves Subaru Des Sources, Honda Des Sources and Volkswagen Des Sources and comprises 140,693 square feet of gross leasable area situated on approximately nine acres of land, as largely neutral to funds from operations estimates.
His net asset value per unit projection slid by just 1 per cent after incorporating a lower NAV cap rate to reflect all-time-low spreads.
“The Dorval properties are being acquired from a third-party real estate owner who previously sold the dealer operations to Dilawri and agreed to a CPI-linked rent structure,” he explained. “We expect this to increase APR’s share of CPI adjusted leases to approximately 43 per cent of base rent. Since last year, APR has strengthened its growth profile related to these leases, up from 36% in Q3 2024. This higher growth profile is supported by quality in-place brands (Honda, VW, and Subaru), all of which are the primary sale point for these OEMs on the West Island.”
“In addition, the site now possesses long-term redevelopment potential upon completion of the REM line under construction. Due to this quality, we have assumed a high-5-per-cent cap rate for the properties.”
Maintaining his “sector perform” recommendation for the REIT’s units, Mr. Thornhill raised his target to $12.50 from $12, noting it is “set at a discount to the retail peer group to reflect auto retailing exposure, a modest rental profile, and offset by its low leverage.” The average on the Street is $12.72.
Elsewhere, others making changes include:
* Desjardins Securities’ Lorne Kalmar to $12.50 from $13 with a “buy” rating.
“The offering resets APR’s balance sheet following its largest acquisition year since 2018 and positions it to capitalize on other opportunities, with management noting a robust deal pipeline. We continue to view acquisitions as both an earnings and unit price catalyst,” said Mr. Kalmar.
* Scotia’s Himanshu Gupta to $12.50 from $13 with a “sector perform” rating.
=====
Heading into third-quarter earnings season, Desjardins Securities analyst Doug Young continues to be “underweight” on Canadian property and casualty insurance companies, citing “softening conditions in some markets, potential rotation from defence into offence, and the sector being fairly valued.”
“We expect benign weather in Canada to benefit 3Q25 results for both IFC and DFY by way of lower CAT and non-CAT weather losses (both on a year-over-year basis and vs a typical 3Q),“ he explained. ”And we expect another relatively clean quarter for TSU’s program business. We updated our 3Q25, 2025 and 2026 estimates and are releasing our 2027 numbers. We lowered our target prices for IFC and DFY to reflect the recent multiple contraction (to more normalized levels in our view) but maintained our ratings and pecking order.”
In order of preference, Mr. Young’s ratings and targets along with his themes to watch for each are:
1. Intact Financial Corp. (IFC-T) with a “buy” rating and $305 target, down from $335. The average is $319.77.
Analyst: “(1) The UK&I business. Corrective actions are being taken within the DLG portfolio, which could weigh on top-line growth. Also, over the last few quarters it experienced elevated large losses in its specialty business which resulted in the division’s underwriting income falling short of our estimate; however, according to management, the business is positioned to show good bottom-line progress through 2026; (2) Management’s outlook, in general, and on where we stand in the P&C cycle; (3) Trends in Canadian personal auto; (4) Competition in commercial lines; and (5) M&A. Both manufacturing and distributions in all geographies appear to be fair game.”
2. Trisura Group Ltd. (TSU-T) with a “buy” rating and $54 target (unchanged). Average: $54.63.
Analyst: “(1) Trends at its U.S. fronting business (exited vs going concern programs). This will be the focus. (2) How the build out of its U.S. surety platform is progressing. We suspect this initiative will result in elevated costs near term, but this should not be a surprise. (3) The performance of the various Canadian insurance operations, most specifically surety (update to its entry in the large size market?) and corporate insurance (where there has been signs of price softening).”
3. Definity Financial Corp. (DFY-T) with a “hold” rating and $70 target, down from $80. Average: $78.20.
Analyst: “(1) The pending TRV acquisition (for a recap of the acquisition see our note here). How did the TRV Canada business perform in 3Q25? Any updated thoughts on the pending deal? (2) Competitive trends in commercial lines; (3) Sonnet; and (4) Management’s outlook.”
=====
In other analyst actions:
* Raymond James’ Brian MacArthur initiated coverage of Versamet Royalties Corp. (VMET-X) with an “outperform” rating and $14.50 target. The average is $13.08.
“We believe royalty companies like VMET offer equity investors exposure to precious metals prices while mitigating downside risk given limited exposure to operating and capital costs,” he said. “VMET’s portfolio now consists of over 25 royalties and streams including 8 producing royalties/streams that is precious metals focused, although we note about 25 per cent of its NAV is base metals. VMET’s portfolio offers growth as GEOs are expected to grow about 100 per cent in 2026 mainly driven by 2 strategic acquisitions in 2025. In addition, many of VMET’s main assets have a current reserve/resource life of 10 years or longer. VMET also has longer-term potential growth from royalties on numerous development assets such as Toega and the Santa Rita underground. On the other hand, VMET has higher debt than some of its competitors, lower share liquidity given numerous large shareholders (but we also note it is pursuing a U.S. listing) and does not pay a dividend. Given VMET’s high margin business model, near-term growth profile, longer-term growth optionality and favourable asset life, we rate the shares Outperform. Our target price is based on a 40/60 weighting of: i) a 1.8 times multiple (generally in-line with precious metal royalty peers) of our NAVPS estimate; and ii) a 18.0 times P/NTM [next 12-month] CFPS multiple (generally in-line with precious metal royalty peers) to our NTM CFPS estimate.”
* Expecting “mixed” third-quarter results for Canadian utilities, Raymond James’ Theo Genzebu raised his targets for Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp. (AQN-N/AQN-T, “market perform”) to US$6.50 from US$6, Emera Inc. (EMA-T, “outperform”) to $73 from $70, Fortis Inc. (FTS-T, “outperform”) to $75.50 from $72 and Hydro One Ltd. (H-T, “market perform”) to $53.50 from $49. The averages are US$6.39, $67.54, $71.54 and $50.65, respectively.
“As interest rates moderate lower, capex spend gets put into play and regulatory visibility improves across the North American regulated utilities sector, we believe higher multiples across the sector can be sustained,” said Mr. Genzebu. “As such, we are increasing the target prices across our regulated utility coverage to reflect this. We believe growing expectations of rate cuts have improved sentiment toward yield-sensitive sectors, with utilities benefiting from a more favorable valuation backdrop. Additionally, utilities continue to execute on what we believe is one of the largest capital investment cycles in decades, with increased capex translating into higher rate base growth and long-term earnings visibility. Further, we highlight the sector continues to see upward revisions to long-term load forecasts, driven by electrification and emerging demand from AI-related data center developments. Lastly, regulatory clarity improved in 3Q25, with several rate cases resolved and constructive policy signals supporting long-duration investment plans, in our view. However, we believe these positive dynamics are tempered as rate-payer affordability remains key for regulators. We maintain our Outperform ratings for both EMA and FTS, and our Market Perform ratings for both AQN and H.”
* In response to the announcement of a strategic restructuring program that includes a $67-million charge and a 8-per-cent headcount reduction, BMO’s Étienne Ricard raised his target for EQB Inc. (EQB-T) to $108 from $100 with a “market perform” rating. The average is $104.20.
* RBC’s Keith Mackey hiked his Precision Drilling Corp. (PD-T) target to $117 from $110 with a “outperform” rating, while Raymond James’ Michael Barth moved his target to $133 from $132 with an “outperform” rating. The average is $104.35.
“PD’s 3Q25 results were largely as expected. The most noteworthy point was its $20-million capital spending increase for upgrades to five additional rigs, including two moves to Canada, reflecting continued tightness in rig availability. We increase our 2025/26/27 EBITDA estimates by 2 per cent/3 per cent/3 per cent,” said Mr. Mackey.
* RBC’s Matthew McKellar trimmed his West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. (WFG-N, WFG-T) target to US$91 from US$92 with an “outperform” rating, while TD’s Sean Steuart cut his target to US$88 from US$90. The average is US$86.67.
“We think West Fraser’s low-cost focus, advantaged softwood lumber duty rate, geographical diversification, and strong balance sheet position it to withstand a variety of scenarios that could play out in wood products markets through the balance of 2025 and into 2026. We believe West Fraser is also well positioned to be a potential acquirer of high-quality assets that could come to market should trough conditions continue,” Mr. McKellar said.
