Macau’s casino industry posted a robust recovery in October, despite some setbacks during the October National Day Golden Week, analysts highlighted.
The SAR’s gross gaming revenue (GGR) jumped 15.9 per cent year-on-year to MOP24.09 billion patacas (US$3.01 billion), according to data released by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau on Saturday.
The figure surpassed the Deutsche Bank Consensus Metrix forecast of a 9.9 per cent annual increase and reached 91 per cent of the level recorded in October 2019, before the COVID-19 pandemic.
The performance marked a 31.7 per cent sequential improvement from September, or a 27.4 per cent increase on a per-day basis, Deutsche Bank analyst Steven Pizzella noted.
“The 27.4 per cent sequential increase per day was approximately 1,130 basis points higher than historical trends,” he said, referencing the 2013–2019 average of 16.2 per cent for the same period.
While October’s GGR remained 8.9 per cent below the 2019 benchmark, the gap narrowed significantly compared to previous months. September had recorded a 17.2 per cent shortfall versus 2019, while August and July saw declines of 8.7 per cent and 9.5 per cent, respectively, Pizzella added.
The strong October result came despite a disrupted Golden Week holiday, traditionally a peak period for Macau’s gaming sector. Analysts from Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the week-long National Day break was marred by a typhoon and the 2025 Singapore Grand Prix, which diverted potential visitors.
“Gaming revenue plunged in the latter half of the break, indicating that big players didn’t return until after the holiday,” noted JPMorgan’s DS Kim and Citigroup’s George Choi.
Still, the city recorded a record daily average of approximately 143,000 visitor arrivals during the holiday, and total visitation in September had already risen 10 per cent year-on-year to 2.8 million. October’s full visitor data is expected later this month.
Looking ahead, Deutsche Bank projects November GGR to reach approximately $2.544 billion, representing a 10.2 per cent year-on-year increase, ahead of the Consensus Metrix forecast of 6.8 per cent.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, the bank forecasts GGR of $8.1 billion, up 12.9 per cent year-on-year. Full-year projections stand at $30.8 billion for 2025 and $32.4 billion for 2026, reflecting annual growth of 8.6 per cent and 5.2 per cent, respectively.
