Absurde ticks a lot of boxes in this year’s Melbourne Cup.
It’s not a sexy selection and he has had to be re-vetted over the weekend, but I feel like you can rely on him to run a solid race at a decent price on his third attempt in the race.
Willie Mullins, his trainer, is a genius, as everybody knows.
His run in the Caulfield Cup was a good trial and it’s interesting they’ve taken a different route, running in the Caulfield Cup but maybe it’s the change maker.
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His only win this year has been a Plumpton hurdle, not necessarily an obvious formline into the Melbourne Cup, but you never quite know with these Mullins horses.
Absurde is a solid selection.
In terms of Al Riffa, he’s very good and his form is very solid but the weight is a bit of a handbrake.
He’s really well-credentialed as a three-time Group 1 winner, but it’s a handicap and having to carry 59kg against this field is tricky.
As a result I feel like I want to oppose him.
Joseph O’Brien’s other horse, Goodie Two Shoes, I’m interested in.
Her English rating is 104 and Al Riffa is 120, which is 16 pounds, and you look at the weight they have to carry in the Melbourne Cup, she’s got 51.5kg and he’s got 59kg.
So that levels them up.
If they were to run in a handicap in England they’d be carrying the same weight difference which technically, if handicappers have done their job correctly, it should mean they finish alongside each other.
Goodie Two Shoes is the first Cup runner for JP McManus, a very successful, incredibly shrewd, large-scale owner back over in England and Ireland.
Joseph O’Brien has won the race twice, he knows what he’s doing and of the 11 turf races she’s run in she’s won six of them but she has run in hurdle races and chase races, so she’s pretty versatile.
I like the 51.5kg really because in a handicap we’re always looking for something with a bit of an angle and she does make a bit of appeal.
I also like Presage Nocturne.
His form isn’t the easiest to read and sometimes those French races they hack around and sprint home, which in a way, isn’t a bad thing for a Melbourne Cup.
They often can drop the anchor around the back straight at Flemington and sprint home.
I thought his run in the Caulfield Cup was really good and the third in the Kergolay, off a pretty long break two starts ago, was only beaten a neck, that’s pretty good.
I like the international angle of it too, Irish bred, Italian trainer in France, ridden by a French jockey.
The trip is fine for him but 55.5kg I think is top for him, I’d rather he have less weight, but I think he’s pretty solid and with the predicted rain forecast the soft or heavy track shouldn’t be an issue for him.
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THE FINAL WORD
Francesca Cumani on the other internationals in the Melbourne Cup.
Meydaan ($13)
I don’t fancy him, I’ve got to say. Only thing that gives him a chance is first time over two miles because he could just be a horse that’s been looking for the trip and hasn’t had it yet, could. He’s a horse that’s always flattered to deceive, come with a big reputation, he’s a very good looking horse by Frankel and they’ve expected better things than they’ve seen from him. Yes, he was a bit eye-catching in the Caulfield Cup but he can do that quite a lot. He sometimes holds his head to one side, which just doesn’t give me the indication he’s a horse that’s desperate to win a race.
Onesmoothoperator ($15)
I can’t get my head around him, he’s won a Moonee Valley Cup and he was allowed to go off 40-1 in the Ebor, he hasn’t won a race on turf in the UK and hasn’t won a race all season in the UK so he is very hard to line up. Obviously he had a foot issue in the Cup last year, which didn’t help, but I can’t really see him winning now on his second attempt.
Flatten The Curve ($26)
When he was trained in France he won two starts in 35 starts and was seemingly very average and then moved to Germany where he joined trainer Henk Grewe and seems to be a whole new horse winning five of six starts. He won a $1m race at Kentucky Downs last start, which is also very difficult to assess because they’re very good prizemoney races but not necessarily the best horses. Tricky but I like the way the Aussies have adopted his jockey, Thore Hammer-Hansen, as the best name in racing.
Furthur ($34)
A northern hemisphere three-year-old and only carries 52kg, which is a big positive. He won a race at Newbury two starts ago, which was a good bit of form and then he ran in the St Leger and finished sixth, you could blame the soft ground. I’d say he’s better on good to firm, he can be a little bit keen in his races, I think big field, Melbourne Cup, with a messy tempo, lots of runners, a three-year-old, I’m a bit nervous about him.
Chevalier Rose ($51)
He’s an interesting one, took 19 starts to win another race and then won two Group 2 races and been a bit plain since, although in better grade races. Difficult to assess, 55.5kg would probably put me off combined with being an eight-year-old but the Japanese horses have surprised us in the past. Bear in mind that if it rains the Japanese horses traditionally have a very poor record on heavy ground.
Parchment Party ($51)
He’s a big price and seemingly for good reason because he is a horse that specialises in running on dirt and not turf. His only turf start to date has been poor and he is taking on some pretty elite company here. What does make appeal is the fact that Hall of Fame jockey Johnny Velasquez is jetting in for the ride and in doing so becomes the first American jockey to ride in the race.
FRANCESCA CUMANI TIPS
1. Presage Nocturne
2. Absurde
3. Goodie Two Shoes
4. Al Riffa
Originally published as Melbourne Cup 2025: Francesca Cumani rates the internationals and gives her tips
