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There was once a time when a world-class striker was proud to have a scoring rate of one goal every two games.
Certain generational talents have pushed that rate higher in the 21st century, scoring almost every time they take to the field. But an average of more than one goal per game? Come on, that is just showing off.
As things stand, four players (with 500-plus minutes played) sit above that rate across Europe’s top five leagues. Two of those are Manchester City’s Erling Haaland and Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane, who are averaging 1.4 and 1.5 goals per 90, respectively, in their domestic league this season.
Add in all competitions and throw in their international exploits, and the pair are operating on a different stratosphere than their peers. Kane’s 25 goals in 18 appearances for club and country have included six braces (two goals) and two hat-tricks, with the 32-year-old currently in the form of his life.
Haaland has somehow gone one better. Only Tottenham and Aston Villa have stopped him from scoring this season, with a return of 26 goals from 16 appearances — including seven (yes, seven) goals in five days for club and country in September.
These are numbers more befitting of an oversized 12-year-old prodigy in a local Sunday league than a professional playing in the strongest league in the world.
Kane was rested and came on as a second-half substitute during Bayern Munich’s 3-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen at the weekend, but only Augsburg, Andorra and Borussia Monchengladbach have stopped him from getting on the scoresheet in games he has started this season. Still, he has been on the winning side in every game so far — with Vincent Kompany’s side maintaining a 100 per cent record in all competitions this season.
In the bread and butter of his league campaign, Kane’s elite finishing is highlighted by 12 goals from an expected goals (xG) rate of just 6.7 — the biggest overperformance in Europe. A smattering of four penalties within that tally has helped boost those numbers, but with the territorial dominance that Bayern have, it is hardly surprising that he has had the opportunity so often already.
Haaland’s 13 Premier League goals have come from 43 shots, with only Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe (53) having more efforts on goal across Europe’s top five leagues.
Having that return from an xG of 10.2 is arguably more sustainable than Kane’s output, especially considering the quality of chances he has found for himself. Having taken no penalties so far, an xG per shot of 0.24 is elite, and the highest average shot quality he has had since his 2019-20 season at Borussia Dortmund.
Efforts of high quality and high quantity make for a devastating cocktail. Barring one shot inside the “D”, all of his efforts have come from lucrative areas inside the box.
Comparisons with all-time greats Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo have followed Haaland around since his teenage years, but Pep Guardiola was not shy in accepting that he is reaching similar goalscoring levels to the pair.
“Have you seen the numbers of that guy? Of course he has,” Guardiola said after Manchester City’s victory over Bournemouth last weekend.
“The numbers from Cristiano and Messi have been for 15 years, Messi is still scoring two, three goals every game and Cristiano in Saudi Arabia, the same. This is that level.”
Stopping Haaland appears to be the best tactic to stop Manchester City this season, with the Norwegian international’s goals accounting for 65 per cent of his team’s total league tally. No Premier League player has a higher share of their team’s goals scored. For context, those 13 goals individually are more than 10 Premier League teams this season.
Can anyone stop Erling Haaland? (Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)
While it might be an individual honour, the recipient of the annual Ballon d’Or tends to be the player who has also got their hands on the biggest team trophies.
Still, the goalscoring numbers that Haaland and Kane are posting this season might mean that they are in a straight shootout for the award next year, irrespective of the silverware they might lift with their club and country.
If we extrapolate the graphic above to a 60-game season in all competitions — using their respective goals per game rate — there just might be some records broken next summer.
If he continues his rate of 1.6 goals per game in all competitions, Haaland could hit 98 goals in a single campaign. Kane would lag just behind, with an average of 1.4 goals per game, seeing him reach a mere 83 goals by the time the season is out.
It is tricky to determine the exact number of games that Haaland and Kane will play for club and country. Kane’s England have already qualified for the World Cup next summer, while Haaland’s Norway look set to reach their first World Cup since 1998 — they currently sit top of their qualifying group with a 100 per cent record.
Both players are likely to be reminded of Lionel Messi’s 82 goals scored for club and country in 2011-12, with 73 goals for Barcelona and nine goals for Argentina. Not one to shy away from a record, Messi’s tally remains the highest for a player in Europe’s top five leagues in the 21st century.
Harry Kane has flown out of the blocks, but can he keep it up? (Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images)
Looking further back, you could also point to Polish and German international Ernst Wilimowski, whose tally of 107 goals in 1940–41 is regarded as the historic record for most goals in a single season. However, with this record taking place during the Second World War, and including regional competitions, it is difficult to make the same comparison with the modern game.
Getting anything close to Messi’s record would be a huge achievement for Haaland or Kane this season. Both have flown out of the blocks at the start of 2025-26 and will hope to remain injury-free, but they would need to almost quadruple their current tally to stand a fighting chance.
Stay tuned as The Athletic monitors their goalscoring progress as both chase an unprecedented campaign.
