Tarrant County employee Jacob Hernandez shoves snow off the sidewalk in front of the Tarrant County Sheriff’s Department Jail in downtown Fort Worth on Thursday, Jan. 9, 2025.
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North Texas is expected to see above normal temperatures this winter.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center recently released its three-month outlook for the winter months. The prediction paints a picture for what to expect from December 2025 through February 2026.
There’s been a slew of winter weather outlooks issued over the past couple of months from AccuWeather, the Farmers’ Almanac and the Old Farmer’s Almanac. Each outlook has differed in what to expect this winter, from temperature to precipitation.
As for the NOAA outlook, here’s what to know.
NOAA winter temperature outlook
Temperatures in North Texas are expected to have a 33-40 percent chance of above normal temperatures this winter.
The seasonal temperature outlook for the U.S. from December 2025 to February 2026. Climate Prediction Center
The outlook, issued on Oct. 16, is valid from December 2025 to February 2026. In addition to the Metroplex, West and South Texas are expected to see higher percentages of above normal temps.
However, above normal temperatures doesn’t always equate to extreme heat, according to NOAA. Instead, above normal could simply mean temperatures are a few degrees above the normal parameters.
In North Texas, the normal high for December is 57.9 degrees, 56.5 degrees in January and 60.9 in February.
NOAA winter precipitation outlook
NOAA’s precipitation outlook is predicting “equal chances” for rainfall over the winter months in North Texas.
The seasonal precipitation outlook for the U.S. from December 2025 to February 2026. Climate Prediction Center
Most of the Metroplex and parts of East Texas and the Panhandle are also showing “equal chances” for precipitation. For the rest of the state, below normal precipitation is expected.
When forecasters use “equal chances,” it means they think an area has three possible outcomes — well above, well below, or near normal — that are all equally likely, according to NOAA. Or, sometimes it means that there are no strong influences that would favor one outcome over another.
In North Texas, the normal precipitation total for December is 2.84 inches, 2.53 inches in January and 2.76 inches in February.
What does all this mean for North Texas?
Taking into account both outlooks, North Texans can expect a warmer-than-normal winter with equal chances for precipitation.
While this is a snapshot of how things are expected to look in the future, a one-month outlook and subsequent weeks’ and days’ forecast will give a better look at what to expect as the date grows near.
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Brayden Garcia
Fort Worth Star-Telegram
Brayden Garcia is a service journalism reporter at the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. He is part of a team of local journalists who answer reader questions and write about life in North Texas. Brayden mainly writes about weather and all things Taylor Sheridan-related.
