When e-commerce firm Shopify (SHOP) reports third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, analysts expect a boost from its expansion into enterprise and international markets. Shopify stock has rallied since the “Instant Checkout” partnership with artificial intelligence leader OpenAI in late September.
The Canada-based company reports earnings before Tuesday’s stock market open. On an adjusted basis, Q3 Shopify earnings are expected to fall 4% to 34 cents per share amid rising investments and marketing expenses.
Revenue is expected to rise 27% to $2.756 billion. Gross merchandise volume from merchants will grow 28% to $89.12 billion, according to consensus estimates.
Analysts will look for management commentary on artificial intelligence’s impact on online shopping, recent top management changes, the outlook for the upcoming holiday shopping season as well as a Trump tariff impact update.
Q4 Guidance Key
“We expect Q4 guidance to be broadly in line with Street with mid-20’s revenue and low-20’s gross profit growth and GAAP operating expenses of low 30s as a percentage of revenue,” said Deutsche Bank analyst Bhavin Shah in a report.
Shopify’s Q4 report will include revenue recognition changes involving e-commerce partner PayPal Holdings (PYPL).
At Jefferies, analyst Samad Samana said in a report: “Third party data and EPS read throughs (from Amazon (AMZN)) suggest Shopify should deliver another healthy beat on GMV and total revenue. AI-driven efficiencies and cost controls should yield solid operating income upside. With the holiday shopping season on the horizon, we expect constructive Q4 guidance.”
Shopify chief operating officer Kaz Nejatian recently left as well as chief revenue officer Bobby Morrison. Shopify appointed general counsel Jessica Hertz to COO.
Shopify Stock
Shopify stock jumped 17% to 173.86 last month. Shares are extended from a 156.85 cup-base buy point, according to IBD’s MarketSurge. SHOP stock is in range from an alternate entry of 169.69.
Heading into the Shopify earnings report, shares have advanced 63% in 2025, hitting an all-time high last week.
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“Despite a volatile start to the year, with outsized macro (economic) and tariff concerns weighing on the stock, Shopify shares have now traded up over 60% year-to-date, bolstered by Q2’s topline growth acceleration as gross merchandise volume share gains powered through macro concerns,” said Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss in a report.
Weiss added: “Investors will look to the initial Q4 guide as a signpost for holiday spending trends, and the degree to which Shopify can sustain growth against a particularly tough year ago comparison.”
Shopify-Open AI Deal
In the e-commerce deal announced with OpenAI, Shopify merchants will be able to sell directly within ChatGPT conversations in the U.S. “We see potential for Shopify to capture incremental share of GMV as agentic commerce grows as a percent of consumer spend,” said Oppenheimer analyst Ken Wong in a report. “OpenAI will charge merchants a small transaction fee for completed purchases. However, our initial interpretation of the partnership announcement suggests Instant Checkout is facilitated by ChatGPT via (payment firm) Stripe, potentially limiting direct monetization by Shopify.”
Shopify sets up e-commerce websites for small businesses, and partners with others to handle digital payments and shipping.
Shopify Stock Technical Ratings
Shopify stock holds a Composite Rating of 97 out of a best-possible 99, according to IBD Stock Check-Up. IBD’s Composite Rating combines five separate proprietary ratings into one easy-to-use rating. The best growth stocks have a Composite Rating of 90 or better.
Meanwhile, Shopify stock holds an Accumulation/Distribution Rating of B. That rating analyzes price and volume changes in a stock over the past 13 weeks of trading. (A+ signifies heavy institutional buying; E means heavy selling. Think of a C grade as neutral.)
Follow Reinhardt Krause on X, formerly Twitter, @reinhardtk_tech for updates on artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and cloud computing.
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