It’s time for the round of 16 at ATP Athens. Dave is on vacation, so I’m stepping in for the week. Here are my best bets for the action in Greece. Who will triumph in the country that gave us the Olympics? Share your thoughts with us in the comments section.
ATP Athens
Nakashima – Giron: Time 18:30
H2H: 0-0
Our coverage opens with Brandon Nakashima vs Marcos Giron. The rivalry between these two currently stands at 3-1 in favor of Nakashima. All of Nakashima’s wins against Giron came in the quarterfinals or later, but Giron’s only win came in 2020 at the Grand Slam Tennis Tour MatchPlay. Nakashima’s last win in the rivalry came at ATP Chengdu in September. Nakashima is 4-6 in his last ten. Giron is also 4-6 in his last ten. Neither of these Americans has had a standout year, but at least Nakashima has an overall record above .500, as his is 33-29 compared to Giron’s 22-27 record in ’25.
Best Bet to Make
While neither player is at their best, there’s a solid reason why the books favor Nakashima. As mentioned above, he’s dominated the rivalry. As mentioned by our own Jordan Reynolds in his prediction piece, Nakashima is just playing at a different level than Giron. For Giron to win, something would have to fall in his favor, and it would have to be something big. We’re talking Nakashima just having an awful day, or maybe staying out too late and partying, I dunno. It would have to be something, and I don’t see it happening. Give me Nakashima in straight sets for 2.63 on Bet365.
That being said, Nakashima winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nakashima winning 2:0 @2.63 @Bet365
Muller – Etcheverry: Time 14:30
H2H: 1-0
The last time that Alexandre Muller and Tomas Martin Etcheverry met was earlier this year at Rio de Janeiro in the round of 16. While that match went to a tiebreak in the second set, Muller came away with the victory. That said, it was an extremely hard-fought match, and it honestly could have gone either way at several different points in the match. Right now, Muller is struggling. He’s just 3-7 in his last ten matches, and Etcheverry is 6-4 in his last ten.
Best Bet to Make
Etcheverry is the favorite in this match on most books. It’s about a .30-point difference, on average. Our Jordan Reynolds picked Muller in three, but I am going the other way. I think the Frenchman is in a large rut right now, and Etcheverry is riding a wave of confidence. I think the Argentinian. If he can avoid his hardcourt inconsistency and stay hydrated, I think this is a match he ought to win, especially at this point in Muller’s year.
That being said, Etcheverry winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Etcheverry winning @1.8 @Betway
Wawrinka – Musetti: Time 17:00
H2H: 0-1
At last, we have arrived at the match between Stan Wawrinka and Lorenzo Musetti. The age difference between these two is pretty stark and will likely add to the pre-match build discussion. We’re literally talking about someone playing someone who turned pro the same year they were born. Yup, Wawrinka turned pro in 2002, the same year that Lorenzo Musetti’s parents welcomed him into this world. Musetti is 7-3 in his last ten matches, and Wawrinka is 6-4 in his.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Musetti as damn-near a 5-1 favorite. Neither man particularly excels at indoor play, but neither is awful. In this match, it would be wise to look at things like a correct score bet since Wawrinka is such a huge underdog. I like Musetti winning 2:0 for 1.65 on 1xBet. That’s probably the smartest play here to cash out. Not much to say here. Play this one smart unless you know something I don’t.
That being said, Musetti winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Musetti winning 2:0 @1.65 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
