** Citi upgrades ASX-listed James Hardie Industries JHX to “buy”, citing stronger-than-anticipated FY26 performance, and expectations that risk to FY27 earnings is manageable even without macro improvement
** While co’s guidance implies high-single digit volume declines in H1, Citi estimates mid-single digit declines; adds volume outperformance is driven by non-Southern exposure, co’s repair and remodel segment, and multi-family housing
** Sees FY27 earnings supported by additional $127 mln Q1 contribution from AZEK, $40-80 mln in cost synergies, co’s destocking unwind, and given JHX’s long-term incentive targets imply a mid-to-high single digit growth above the market
** While brokerage remains cautious amid market decline, it sees positive signs such as more “in the money” mortgages and potential rate-friendly government appointments in 2026
** Citi raises its FY26 EBITDA forecast to ~$1,208 mln
** ASX-listed shares of the world’s largest fibre cement maker down 39.2% YTD
