Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are undefeated at home (3-0) this season heading into Wednesday night’s matchup with the Miami Heat.
Miami lost to the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday, but it bounced back on the second night of a back-to-back, knocking off the Los Angeles Clippers by one point. The Heat are now 5-2 against the spread and 4-3 overall this season, but they are underdogs on the road on Wednesday night.
The Nuggets are coming off a win over the Sacramento Kings on Monday night, riding a 34-point, 14-assist game from Jokic to a six-point victory. However, they didn’t cover the spread in that matchup.
Does Denver bounce back against the number with a big win on Wednesday?
Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Nov. 5.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Heat Injury Report
Nuggets Injury Report
Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet
Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best NBA props column why Jokic is worth a look at home against Miami:
Sticking with an assist prop, Love Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic on Wednesday.
This season, Jokic is averaging 11.3 assists per game, picking up at least nine dimes in every matchup and 10 or more in five of his six appearances.
Now, he takes on a Miami team that is No. 1 in the NBA in pace and ranks 17th in opponent assists allowed per game. A fast-paced game should give Jokic plenty of chances to find his teammates, and he is averaging a whopping 18.2 potential assists per game this season.
After a 14-assist game against Sacramento on Monday, Jokic is a great bet to keep things rolling as a passer at home against Miami.
I think the betting market is still undervaluing this Miami team that upset the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday night and is 5-2 against the spread so far this season.
Norman Powell is back in the lineup, which raises Miami’s offensive ceiling, and Erik Spoelstra has installed a new offense with a lot less pick-and-roll that appears to be working. The Heat are No. 1 in pace, No. 12 in offensive rating, No. 6 in assist percentage and No. 4 in effective field goal percentage.
While Miami doesn’t have the top-line talent that Denver has, the Nuggets haven’t exactly been a great team to bet on this season, despite ranking second in offensive rating and third in effective field goal percentage.
Denver is just 3-3 against the spread, and it’s failed to cover against Portland and Sacramento in its last two games. Miami is better than both of those teams, and it should benefit from an offensive-centric game.
After all, these teams are No. 3 (Denver) and No. 5 (Miami) in the league in net rating.
I’ll take the points with the Heat set as nearly double-digit dogs on Wednesday.
Pick: Heat +9.5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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