It’s been a rough start to the season for the Dallas Mavericks, as they’re just 2-5 this season after scoring only 102 points on Monday night in an eight-point loss to the Houston Rockets.
Dallas was without star Anthony Davis in that game due to a calf injury, and he’s listed as out on Wednesday night against the New Orleans Pelicans.
New Orleans is already one of the worst teams in the NBA, as it is 1-6 this season, although it won against the Charlotte Hornets on Tuesday night, the team’s first win of the campaign.
The Mavericks are favored at home on Wednesday, and this could be a spot for Jason Kidd’s group to get back on track, especially on the offensive end since the Pelicans are one of the worst defenses in the league.
Here’s a look at the odds, players to watch and my prediction for Wednesday’s matchup.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread
Moneyline
Total
Pelicans Injury Report
Mavs Injury Report
Mavs Best NBA Prop Bet
This season, Gafford has appeared in just two games, playing less than 25 minutes in both of them while grabbing four boards per night.
That makes him a tough player to trust in this matchup against New Orleans, even though the Pelicans are one of the worst teams on the glass in the NBA this season, ranking 29th in rebounding percentage. There’s a chance Dallas goes to more small-ball lineups, especially since Yves Missi, DeAndre Jordan and some of New Orleans other bigs aren’t elite post threats.
Since Gafford isn’t playing a major role — even with Lively and Davis out — I’ll fade him at this inflated number on Wednesday.
Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I’m betting on the UNDER in this game:
The New Orleans Pelicans picked up their first win of the season on Tuesday against the Charlotte Hornets, and they have a quick turnaround on Wednesday against the Dallas Mavericks.
Dallas is one of the best UNDER teams in the NBA this season, going 5-2 to the UNDER in seven games. In addition to that, the Mavericks are dead last in the NBA in offensive rating, but they clock in at eighth in the league in defensive rating, allowing the fewest 3-pointers per game.
On Wednesday, Dallas is without star forward Anthony Davis while the Pelicans ruled out Zion Williamson for at least a week due to a hamstring injury. So, both of these teams will be operating at less than 100 percent and without their best offensive players.
That sets up well for a low-scoring affair, as the Pels are 27th in the NBA in offensive rating and 29th in effective field goal percentage. This total is creeping up towards 230 – likely because New Orleans is one of the worst defenses in the league – but I can’t trust this Dallas team to take advantage.
The Mavs have been awful on offense in the 2025-26 season, and the Pelicans may try to slow this game down (26th in pace) on the second night of a back-to-back. I’ll gladly go UNDER in this matchup.
Pick: UNDER 227.5 (-112 at DraftKings)
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Register with DraftKings today and get $300 in bonus bets instantly +3 months of NBA League Pass if you win your first bet. Claim this DraftKings Sportsbook promo code offer by making a $5 deposit, applying your bonus token, and winning your first $5 wager.
