It’s time for the quarterfinals at ATP Athens. Dave is on vacation, so I’m stepping in for the week. Here are my best bets for the action in Greece. Can Djokovic advance to the semifinals? Will Musetti ruin his bid for a second title? We’ll find out soon enough. Please share your thoughts with us in the comments section.
ATP Athens Quarterfinals
Korda – Kecmanovic: Time 12:00
H2H: 2-1
We open up with Sebastian Korda vs Miomir Kecmanovic. It will be their third match in 2025, and their fourth overall. Korda won both of their matches in 2025, with both wins coming in the quarterfinals and semifinals. Kecmanovic won their 2022 ATP Miami third-round match. Each match has been decided in two sets. Korda and Kecmanovic are both riding a two-match winning streak. Korda is 6-4 in his last ten matches, but Kecmanovic is 5-5. Of the two of them, only Kecmanovic has a title in 2025. He took the title at ATP Delray Beach.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Korda as the favorite in this match. Given that he’s beaten Kecmanovic twice already this year and none of their previous matches went past a second set, I think there are two options available to you. You could take the under on 2.5 sets at 1.55 on Pinnacle, or you could take Korda 2:0 for 2.13 on 1xBet. They function similarly, but it’s a matter of who you think will win. I happen to agree with the Korda pick, so I would rock with the 2.13, but I’m playing with theoretical money; you’re betting for real.
That being said, Korda winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Korda winning 2:0 @2.13 @1xBet
Djokovic – Borges: Time 17:00
H2H: 0-0
Novak Djokovic and Nuno Borges will meet for the first time in their careers. Both men are 6-4 in their last ten matches, but Borges has won two in a row, while Djokovic just snapped a three-game losing streak in the round of 16 here in Athens. To be fair to the Djoker, Borges had a three-match losing streak before the start of ATP Athens. This is also the first time either man has played in this tournament. The separation comes when we look at Djokovic’s overall record on an indoor court. He’s 178-53 for his career indoors, and Borges is just 20-17.
Best Bet to Make
Djokovic is a 6-1 favorite. While the average is closer to 5-1, a few sites offer 6-1 odds. The big reason to go heavy on Djokovic is if you truly believe his indoor career speaks for itself, and nobody would blame you if that were the case. Djokovic has only two titles in the past two years, compared to years of multiple crowns. This is as good a chance as he’s going to have to add a second title to his name before the year winds down. Cashing in here means taking the correct score at 1.57 on Bet365. If you think this is a 6-1, 6-1 type of match, then you might want to take the under on 19 games or even 18.5 games. 19 goes for 2.92 on 1xBet, and under on 18.5 can be had for 3.4 on Unibet.
That being said, Under 19 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Under 19 games @2.92 @1xBet
Muller – Musetti: Time 14:00
H2H: 1-0
Our final match is between Alexandre Muller and Lorenzo Musetti. Muller took down Musetti in their only prior meeting, a 2023 quarterfinal match at ATP Marrakech in three sets. Muller is in a touch of a slump, even if he has won two in a row. The two games he won both went three sets, both went to a tiebreak, and one of them saw every set end in a tie-break. If hanging on by your teeth is a thing, that’s what’s happening here. Musetti is 6-4 in his last ten, and Muller is 4-6. That said, Muller is the only one of them with a tournament title this year, having won ATP Hong Kong.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Musetti as a 4-1 favorite. Once again, neither man excels at indoor play, but at least Musetti has a winning record. In this match, it would be wise to look at things like a correct score bet since Wawrinka is such a huge underdog. I like Musetti winning 2:0 for 1.65 on 1xBet. That’s probably the smartest play here to cash out. Not much to say here. Play this one smart unless you know something I don’t. It feels like Musetti should win 2:0, but I don’t know. It’s a great bet at 1.8 on Bet365.
That being said, Musetti winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Musetti winning 2:0 @1.8 @Bet365
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
