The Scout looks at whether managers should look to move both forwards on, and who to replace them with
Managers in Fantasy Premier League have concerns over the minutes of two popular forwards, Viktor Gyokeres (£9.0m) and Nick Woltemade (£7.5m), ahead of Saturday’s 11:00 GMT deadline.
Arsenal’s Gyokeres, who is found in 19 per cent of squads, is a big doubt to face Sunderland this weekend after he was forced off with a muscle problem in the previous Gameweek.
Combined with a poor run of form which has resulted in just one goal in his last six appearances, the Swede is the most-sold forward in the Gameweek and third most-sold overall, moved on by more than 250,000 former owners.
Meanwhile, Woltemade’s half-time withdrawal in Newcastle United’s loss to West Ham United last weekend was a big blow to his 23 per cent ownership.
The German has played the full match in only two of his seven outings for the Magpies and has blanked in back-to-back matches against Fulham and the Hammers.
He is the second most-sold forward in Gameweek 11, earning 194,000+ sales ahead of the Magpies’ visit to Brentford.
Who are the form forwards in Fantasy?
Jean-Philippe Mateta (£7.9m) and Danny Welbeck (£6.5m) have been the closest challengers to Erling Haaland (£14.8m) over the last four Gameweeks.
The Manchester City star continues to set the pace at the top of the player standings and is the one must-have attacker this season. He has five goals and eight bonus points to his name across Gameweeks 7-10, collecting 36 points.
Crystal Palace’s Mateta and Brighton & Hove Albion’s Welbeck each scored four goals over that period.
Mateta’s claimed his season-high 17 points in this run, thanks to a hat-trick against AFC Bournemouth in Gameweek 8. He earned the maximum three bonus points in both the matches he scored in.
Welbeck was the more consistent of the two, matching the single blank of Haaland to total 26 points.
As the table below shows, those three were the only forwards to return more than 20 points over Gameweeks 7-10.
That clearly highlights the recent frustrations up front in Fantasy and perhaps an indication that a three-man forward line may not be the most optimal set-up in 2025/26.
Bournemouth’s Junior Kroupi (£4.6m) merits attention if you’re looking to bring in a budget forward and change formation.
The Cherries star has started the last three matches, scoring three goals and blanking only once. However, he may have to rely on minutes off the bench soon as first-choice forward Evanilson (£7.0m) has returned to fitness after an injury spell.
Top-scoring forwards, last four Gameweeks
Player
Goals and assists
Blanks
Bonus
Points
Haaland
5
1/4
8
36
Mateta
4
2/4
6
30
Welbeck
4
1/4
3
26
Kroupi
3
1/3
2
20
Flemming
2
3/4
3
17
Thiago
2
2/4
2
17
Woltemade
2
2/4
2
17
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Who’s had the most attacking potential?
A delve into the data shows why managers have made Mateta their priority pick for Gameweek 11.
The Palace striker is tied with Haaland on 15 shots in the box in the last four Gameweeks, while the duo have each had eight big chances, or situations where a player is expected to score.
Considering the season Haaland is having, these numbers show why Mateta is shaping up to be the best forward to own alongside the Norwegian.
Brentford’s Thiago (£6.2m) is the best of the rest, with 11 shots in the box and seven big chances.
Certainly, a comparison with the similarly-priced Welbeck is very much in his favour, with the Brighton star managing just three shots in the box and two big chances in his last four matches.
Despite his downturn in minutes, Woltemade‘s goal threat is still encouraging, with his eight shots in the box and five big chances both placing fourth here.
Meanwhile, Gyokeres and Joao Pedro‘s (£7.4m) all-round contributions have boosted their prospects. Chelsea’s Brazilian has had two big chances and created a further three, giving a total of five big-chance involvements.
Big-chance involvement, last four Gameweeks
Player
Shots in box
Big chances
Big chances created
Big chance-involvement
Haaland, Mateta
15
8
0
8
Thiago
11
7
0
7
Gyokeres
7
4
2
6
Woltemade
8
5
0
5
Joao Pedro
6
2
3
5
Beto
4
3
1
4
Welbeck
3
2
0
2
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Who’s the main man in their team’s attack?
By then bringing in the number of big chances for each of the above players’ clubs, you can get a far better idea of who is the focal point of their side’s attack.
Once again, it’s Mateta and Thiago who fit the bill here.
Mateta has had eight of Palace’s 13 big chances, or 61.5 per cent, over the last four, which shows his huge influence on their attack. The Frenchman’s 23.5 per cent goal conversion rate looks sustainable due to both the quality and quantity of his scoring opportunities.
Thiago has had 50 per cent of Brentford’s big chances – seven of 14 – with his 16.7 per cent goal conversion rate looking improvable.
Woltemade backers shouldn’t be too downcast by the numbers here. Both his goal conversion and percentage of his club’s big chances show why he can get more goals if his manager keeps him on the pitch.
Welbeck‘s numbers, on the other hand, clearly show he is overperforming. He’s scored with 57.1 per cent of his shots, while Brighton as a club have only had seven big chances – the same number as Thiago and one fewer than Mateta.
Player
Goal conv.
Player/club big chances
% of club’s big chances
Mateta
23.5%
8/13
61.5%
Haaland
33.3%
8/14
57.1%
Thiago
16.7%
7/14
50.0%
Woltemade
22.2%
5/11
45.5%
Kroupi
42.9%
2/6
33.3%
Gyokeres
14.3%
4/13
30.8%
Welbeck
57.1%
2/7
28.6%
Joao Pedro
14.3%
3/14
21.4%
Scroll across on mobile to see the full table
Who has the best fixtures?
Factoring in each club’s schedule over the next four Gameweeks will also help to refine your search.
According to the Fixture Difficulty Ratings (FDR), where the difficulty of each fixture is ranked from one to five – with one being the easiest possible match and five being the hardest – there are nine clubs whose average is under 3.0 across that period.
Once again, Mateta ticks the box here. Palace’s average of 2.5 over Gameweeks 11-13 is joint-best, with two of their matches – away to Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley – scoring just two in the FDR.
Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins (£8.5m), Chelsea’s Joao Pedro and Manchester United’s Benjamin Sesko (£7.3m) all have the potential to play their way into our plans if they can improve their poor runs of form.
Alternatively, if you’re looking to free up cash to bring in Liverpool midfielder Mohamed Salah (£14.2m) for his own great schedule, both Bournemouth’s Kroupi and Chelsea’s Marc Guiu (£4.2m) could appeal here.
At such a low cost, they can be the first player on your bench and allow you to move to two up front to profit from the improved consistency of defenders this season.
Next four Gameweeks
Club
No. of matches scoring 2 in FDR
Average FDR
Liverpool
3
2.5
Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Man Utd
2
2.5
Chelsea, Nott’m Forest
2
2.8
Aston Villa, Burnley, Wolves
1
2.8
So, what should Gyokeres and Woltemade owners do?
If you don’t own Mateta yet, now is the time to bring him in for Gyokeres.
The Palace striker’s outstanding statistics, allied with his kind run of opponents, make him the best forward to pick alongside Haaland.
By moving on Gyokeres, you can also free up a crucial Arsenal spot to focus on their defence or midfield.
Woltemade’s numbers, relative to other forwards, show why he is still a big goal threat. He’s clearly the focal point of the Newcastle attack, too, and is worth holding for now.
Thiago’s numbers indicate he could be the best solution in a 3-4-3 alongside Haaland and Mateta, and the Brazilian is definitely one to consider when his schedule turns kinder in Gameweek 13.
If you’re looking to move to two up front to bring in Salah for Liverpool’s great run, Kroupi could be the best way to do it.
