The Melbourne Cup is back for another year and ready to grab the attention of the Australian public.
That also means it’s time for the casual punter to do their best to demonstrate they have some clue what is going on with the race that stops a nation.
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But if your eyes glaze over at the thought of barrier draws and boxed trifectas, you have come to the right place.
The field is set and this is the latest instalment of our annual formula to help you find a horse to back in the 3200m showpiece — and it’ll be all over in 60 seconds.
There are a number of trends and hoodoos over the race’s long history that mean a number of horses can quickly be ruled out of contention.
First up, we can generally cast aside the outsiders.
Just four horses in the past three decades — TWILIGHT PAYMENT ($27 in 2020), PRINCE OF PENZANCE ($101 in 2015), VIEWED ($41 in 2008) and $81 roughie KNIGHT’S CHOICE last year — have won the race at odds higher than $20.
That means you could feel relatively comfortable ruling out ARAPAHO ($51), VAUBAN ($26), CHEVALIER ROSE ($51), MIDDLE EARTH ($31), LAND LEGEND ($101), SMOKIN ROMANS ($101), ABSURDE ($20), FLATTEN THE CURVE ($26), MORE FELONS ($51), CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD ($81), FURTHUR ($26), PARCHMENT PARTY ($41), GOODIE TWO SHOES ($34), ATHABASCAN ($101), TORRANZINO ($26) and ROYAL SUPREMACY ($26).
Just like that, we’ve deducted 16 runners from the field, or exactly two-thirds of this year’s entrants, leaving us with just eight horses.
Of the eight horses remaining, two of them are grey – VALIANT KING ($7) and PRESAGE NOCTURNE ($9) – and only two grey horses have won the Cup in more than three decades, so apologies but you’re also cut.
Roughly that same time frame relates to four-year-old mares winning the Cup, so MEYDAAN ($13) we bid you adieu.
Excuse the sexism, but only 16 times in the event’s history — roughly once every 10 Melbourne Cups — has it been won by a female horse.
That means RIVER OF STARS ($17) also makes way in our formula.
Fear not, we’re not done with just yet.
Next up, out of the 164 winners in the long history of the great race, only a tiny 14 have been seven years or older.
So ABSURDE ($20) and ONESMOOTHOPERATOR ($14), you can see yourselves out, and we’re now down to the final three.
The favourite hasn’t won the Cup in 11 years, so Jamie Melham’s ride on HALF YOURS ($6) is out too.
BUCKAROO and AL RIFFA remain and the latter is trained by Irishman Joseph O’Brien.
VINTAGE CROP was the first horse trained outside of Australia or New Zealand to enter the race back in 1993 and went on to win it.
Since then, only MEDIA PUZZLE (2002), REKINDLING (2017) and the previously mentioned TWILIGHT PAYMENT (2020) have saluted from Irish stables.
So, drumroll please, that leaves us with Chris Waller’s BUCKAROO ($8) as the horse to back this year.
If you’ve read this column in previous editions, you may note we tipped BUCKAROO and SEA KING with our formula in last year’s race and they finished ninth and 14th respectively.
But we loved BUCKAROO’s second-place run in the Cox Plate behind VIA SISTINA and we’re sticking by our (probably flawed) system.
Full Melbourne Cup field (horse, jockey, trainer, weight)
1 – AL RIFFA (FR) Mark Zahra, Joseph O’Brien 59kg
2 – BUCKAROO (GB) Craig Williams, Chris Waller 57kg
3 – ARAPAHO (FR) Rachel King, Bjorn Baker 56.5kg
4 – VAUBAN (FR) Blake Shinn, Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott 56.5kg
5 – CHEVALIER ROSE (JPN) Damian Lane, Hisashi Shimizu 55.5kg
6 – PRESAGE NOCTURNE (IRE) Stephane Pasquier, Alessandro Botti 55.5kg
7 – MIDDLE EARTH (GB) Ethan Brown, Ciaron Maher 54.5kg
8 – MEYDAAN (IRE) James McDonald, Simon & Ed Crisford 54kg
9 – ABSURDE (FR) Kerrin McEvoy, Willie Mullins 53.5kg
10 – FLATTEN THE CURVE (FR) Thore-Hammer Hansen, Henk Grewe 53.5kg
11 – LAND LEGEND (FR) Joao Moreira, Chris Waller 53.5kg
12 – SMOKIN ROMANS (NZ) Ben Melham, Ciaron Maher 53.5kg
13 – CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (IRE) Tim Clark, Kris Lees 53kg
14 – HALF YOURS Jamie Melham, Tony and Calvin McEvoy 53kg (2.0kg penalty)
15 – MORE FELONS (IRE) Tommy Berry, Chris Waller 53kg
16 – ONESMOOTHOPERATOR (USA) Harry Coffey, Brian Ellison 52kg (1.0kg penalty)
17 – FURTHUR (IRE) Michael Dee, Andrew Balding 52kg
18 – PARCHMENT PARTY (USA) John Velazquez, William Mott 52kg
19 – ATHABASCAN (FR) Declan Bates, John O’Shea and Tom Charlton 51.5kg
20 – GOODIE TWO SHOES (IRE) Wayne Lordan, Joseph O’Brien 51.5kg
21 – RIVER OF STARS (IRE) Beau Mertens, Chris Waller 51.5kg
22 – ROYAL SUPREMACY (IRE) Robbie Dolan, Ciaron Maher 51kg
23 – TORRANZINO (NZ) Celine Gaudray, Paul Preusker 51kg
24 – VALIANT KING (GB) Jye McNeil, Chris Waller 51kg
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