Approximately 15 per cent of the 2025-26 National Hockey League schedule is in the books, and it’s already becoming clear that the race for the playoffs in the Eastern Conference is going to go right down to the wire.
After Tuesday’s shootout loss to the Philadelphia Flyers, the Montreal Canadiens (9-3-1, 19 points) hold the top spot in the East, one point ahead of the Detroit Red Wings (9-5-0), New Jersey Devils (9-4-0), and Pittsburgh Penguins (8-4-2).
The defending Stanley Cup Champion Florida Panthers (6-6-1, 13 points) currently occupy the basement of the conference as they adjust to life without captain Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. However, they sit just two points back of the Flyers and Toronto Maple Leafs, who currently occupy the two wild-card spots.
Eastern Conference Standings 11-05-25 Eastern Conference Standings 11-05-25
Historically, the NHL standings at American Thanksgiving, which falls on the fourth Thursday of November, have been a strong indicator of what the playoff picture will look like.
TSN analyst Paul MacLean wrote for NHL.com last season that “For the most part, up to 80 per cent of the playoff schedule is basically decided” at U.S. Thanksgiving.
MacLean added that goal differential is also a big indicator of a team’s playoff hopes as they hit the holiday season.
“Those are telling stats, and it might be only 20 games, but they tell you how you are playing in your overall game and the 5-on-5,” MacLean wrote. “It’s not something that is just made up. That standard of where you are at Thanksgiving and where you’re going to be at the end has been proven over time, that is the case.”
The conference-leading Canadiens have a plus-seven goal differential through 13 games, the best mark in the Atlantic Division. Each of the top three teams in the Metropolitan Division also have strong goal differential numbers, while the Panthers once again sit last at minus-7.
In an additional study done of the past eight NHL seasons by Blaiz Grubic of the Sound of Hockey, he concluded that 76.6 per cent of teams in a playoff position at U.S. Thanksgiving would go on to reach the postseason. Teams holding the top two spots in their division at the milestone made the playoffs 89.1 per cent of the time.
“Are Halloween standings an indicator of playoff contention?”
Thanksgiving has long been viewed as a telling benchmark, but Halloween positioning tells us more than you might expect.
Interesting investigation by @blaizg.
READ ⬇️ https://t.co/guKa3iT8zJ
— Sound Of Hockey (@sound_hockey) November 1, 2025
Grubic also concluded that playoff position as early as Halloween was an indicative marker of reaching the postseason, despite teams having played as few as eight games. Division leaders at Halloween made the playoffs 90.6 per cent of the time, while overall, teams sitting in a playoff position on Oct. 31 qualified 66.4 per cent of the time.
This year, U.S. Thanksgiving falls on November 27, giving teams 22 days to jockey for position in the playoff race.
Of the 16 teams in playoff position at Thanksgiving during the 2024-25 season, 75 per cent (12/16) would go on to make the playoffs. In the East, the Boston Bruins (11-10-3, 25 points) and New York Rangers (12-8-1, 25 points) would fall out of playoff position, while the Ottawa Senators (10-11-1, 21 points) and Canadiens, who sat last in the conference at 8-11-3 on Thanksgiving, would rally to make the postseason.
The Calgary Flames (12-7-4, 28 points) and Vancouver Canucks (11-7-3, 25 points) held Thanksgiving playoff spots in the West but would fail to qualify at the end of the season.
With the Eastern Conference shaping up to be hyper-competitive heading into the winter months, MacLean said that consistency is the key for the bubble teams hoping to take a playoff spot of their own.
“I would say once you get through the holidays and into January, it’s the consistency of your game that’s going to get those teams that are on the bubble into the playoffs,” MacLean wrote. “They have to play very, very consistent hockey in the next 20 games to see if they can give themselves a chance to make a run and change what those standings were at U.S. Thanksgiving.”
