Free agency is just about to really kick off around Major League Baseball and the perception around the league right now is that it is going to be a very good winter for All-Star third baseman Alex Bregman.
Bregman was the big-ticket addition last offseason that Boston fans had been clamoring for over the last few years. The Red Sox put their money where their mouth is and gave Bregman a three-year, $120 million deal. It was the clearest sign in years that Boston wasn’t just willing to try to add talent, but it was willing to open the checkbook and get a deal done. There were deferrals in the deal, but a contract with an annual value of $40 million for a guy playing a position that the Red Sox seemingly had covered? That’s the Boston front office of old.
Now, Bregman is a free agent again after opting out of the deal and if the Red Sox want him back, they will have to pay even more after an All-Star year in 2025. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Bregman as the fourth-best free agent in the market this year and projected him to get a five-year, $160 million deal.
“Projected contract: 5 years, $160 million ($32M AAV),” McDaniel said. “Bregman opted out of a $40 million player option (with deferred money moving the net present value just under $32 million by one calculation) to hit the market again now one year older than last winter, but with his offensive stats ticking up a bit in 2025. Last winter, I projected six years, $187 million and Bregman’s high-end offers didn’t meet his liking, so he opted for a shorter deal with a higher AAV (only slightly higher after deferrals) and opt-outs: three years, $120 million.
Sep 24, 2025; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Red Sox third baseman Alex Bregman (2) hits a single against the Toronto Blue Jays in the first inning at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images / Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images
“Age is a massive factor in the math teams do to set the years and price they’re willing to pay to sign free agents, so five years is probably where things land if Bregman ends up getting a longer-term deal to his liking. I think teams with real interest would be fine with a roughly $30 million AAV at a four- or five-year term. My best guess is that negotiations will end up just above that because Bregman is the most consistent option (at least 14 percent above league average as a hitter every year of his career) of the hitters behind Kyle Tucker, with real age, defensive or consistency questions hindering the other hitters in contention for this kind of payday.”
The expectations for Bregman are positive for him. It certainly sounds like he is going to get paid well this offseason. McDaniel came in with this projection and fellow insider Tim Britton of The Athletic recently projected a six-year, $171 million deal for Bregman.
Both of these numbers should be within Boston’s budget. Boston was already willing to have $80 million owed to Bregman over the next two years with deferrals. If the Red Sox could seemingly tack three more years on and an extra $80 million, that seems like a fair price to pay for someone who significantly improved the organization on the field and also took the young guys under his wing.
If this ends up being the price and the Red Sox don’t pay it, it also would be a bad look because Rafael Devers is no longer with the team. If Bregman walks, than that would mean that Boston got into a tiff and traded someone expected to be the face of the franchise for just one good year from Bregman. That would not be a good look at all.
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