Griffin Wong breaks down his analysis, prediction, and pick for Bulls at Bucks on Friday.
If the playoffs began today, four of the five teams in the Central Division would be among the Eastern Conference’s top six seeds, and the Indiana Pacers wouldn’t be among them. After several seasons of constant mediocrity, the Chicago Bulls are 6-1 and sit atop the conference after two and a half weeks, and the Milwaukee Bucks are tied for third with the Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks, and Philadelphia 76ers.
Of course, it’s early in the season, but both teams have been positive surprises thus far. They’ll meet for the first time this season at 8 p.m. ET at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee as part of Emirates NBA Cup Group C action. For the Bulls, it’ll be front end of a back-to-back, while the Bucks won’t play again until Sunday. With the exception of Chicago guard Coby White, who hasn’t made his season debut yet, both teams are relatively healthy.
Milwaukee is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-175 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 239.5. The Bulls, meanwhile, are +145 the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down tonight’s clash and offer a prediction.
Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks preview, prediction
At some point, Chicago is probably bound for some regression, but there’s no denying that this has been an impressive start, especially for Josh Giddey, who signed a four-year, $100 million contract to return to the team in restricted free agency. Across his last five games, Giddey has been particularly sharp, averaging 28.0 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 11.0 assists per game to help the Bulls climb to the top of East Group A with a win over the New York Knicks. He’s far from the only player who’s impressed, though: Matas Buzelis has canned 42.4% of his triples and has shown all the makings of a second-year leap.
For the Bucks, it’s all about Antetokounmpo, who’s put together another MVP-level campaign. This season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 32.3 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per game on 68-60-62 shooting splits, leading the league in PER and offensive box plus/minus. This season, he’s gotten just enough help from his supporting cast to win, led by a breakout season from Ryan Rollins (16.3 points, 5.6 assists, and 1.9 steals per game), and free agent acquisition Myles Turner has been an effective rim protector even if his shot hasn’t fallen.
Bulls at Bucks pick, best bet
Milwaukee should win the minutes that Antetokounmpo is on the floor, given that with him on, it has a plus-7.4 net rating. The issue is that when he’s resting, the rest of the supporting cast has mustered only a negative-7.8 net rating, which would be the fifth-worst mark in the NBA. The Bucks’ non-competitiveness with Antetokounmpo off the floor could be further compounded today with Taurean Prince questionable with a neck strain. Thankfully, Antetokounmpo is playing a solid 31.1 minutes per game, and he’s unlikely to get in foul trouble against Chicago, which draws fouls at the league’s eighth-lowest rate.
I’m not sure I’m entirely buying the Bulls’ 11th-ranked defense, given that they finished 19th in defensive rating last season. This season, Chicago has allowed easily the most attempts in the restricted area, and while it has held opponents to the fourth-lowest percentage, Nikola Vučević isn’t an individually elite rim protector and hasn’t historically been very effective against Antetokounmpo, who shot 36-for-61 when guarded by him over the last three seasons. Antetokounmpo has attempted 13.1 shots per game in the restricted area, by far the most in the league, and made them at the fourth-best clip among the 33 players who have attempted five or more shots per game at the rim this season. The Bulls have also allowed the ninth-highest field goal percentage to the roll man in pick-and-rolls, and Milwaukee operates P&R’s at the second-highest frequency.
Chicago has made up for opponents’ shot diets by generating efficient looks of its own. The Bulls are averaging the most shots at the rim and most points in the paint, and even if they’re converting them at the third-lowest rate, that puts pressure on a Bucks defense that has limited opponents to the 10th-lowest restricted-area field goal percentage. Milwaukee has also done a good job limiting tries from the corner, allowing the 10th-fewest attempts, which should mitigate the fact that Chicago has taken the third-most corner threes. It has been somewhat exploitable in the midrange, allowing the third-worst percentage on two-point jumpers, but the Bulls aren’t built to take advantage, attempting the second-fewest shots in the midrange and converting at the third-lowest clip.
Any normalization in shooting luck is likely to favor the Bucks. While Milwaukee has shot a solid 40.5% on wide-open threes, Chicago has been even better, canning them at a 43.4% clip, and while the Bucks shot the ball even better last season, it would represent a five-percentage-point increase for the Bulls. That’s doubly true on defense, where opponents have shot an unsustainably low 33.9% on wide-open triples against Chicago and a slightly more reasonable (though still low) 37.4% against Milwaukee. Both teams are good at contesting threes and good at creating wide open looks, so it’ll be a battle of strength versus strength. Stylistically, how they get to those shots are different: the Bulls have made the second-most passes and the Bucks the third-fewest.
In a battle in the paint, it comes down to which team has the better rim protector, and Antetokounmpo and Turner are far better than Vučević in that aspect. I like Antetokounmpo to have a big performance and Milwaukee to pull out a win.
Best bet: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 (-102)
