Lightweight contenders Chris Padilla and Ismael Bonfim will meet at UFC Vegas 111 on November 8, 2025, at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The bout sits on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown, which streams on ESPN+.
Betting Preview: Chris Padilla vs. Ismael Bonfim at UFC Vegas 111
Ismael Bonfim enters as the betting favorite at approximately -205, while Chris Padilla stands as the underdog at +170. The fight represents an opportunity for both fighters to establish momentum in the competitive 155-pound division. Bonfim opened as a -200 favorite against Padilla at +170. The odds, as can be found on vulkanbet, have shown modest movement since the fight was announced, with Bonfim’s line shifting between -205 and -235 at various books, while Padilla has seen his odds range from +150 to +195.
The over/under for total rounds sits at 2.5, with the over priced at -127 to -135 and the under at +127 to +138. This pricing indicates oddsmakers expect a competitive fight that likely reaches the judges. Decision outcomes represent the most likely scenario across multiple analytical models. Bonfim by decision carries approximately 36% probability, reflecting his ability to win standup exchanges consistently without necessarily securing a finish. Padilla by decision sits at roughly 22%.
Knockout/TKO finishes favor Bonfim at 24% probability given his flying knee knockout power and Padilla’s 57% striking defense. Bonfim’s straight punches, intercepting knees, and body work present legitimate threats when Padilla commits to entries or clinch attempts. Padilla’s knockout potential measures lower at 10%, though his elbow work in close quarters demonstrated finishing capability against Rongzhu.
Submission represents Padilla’s secondary victory path at 6% probability, capitalizing on opportunities from scrambles or extended ground control. Bonfim’s submission threat barely registers at 2%, consistent with his striking-dominant approach.
Bonfim’s inconsistency creates uncertainty about his ceiling. His explosive knockout of McKinney demonstrated elite finishing instincts, while subsequent losses to Saint-Denis and Sadykhov exposed defensive limitations. Another defeat could position him as a fighter with highlight-reel potential but lacking championship-level consistency.
Padilla’s perfect UFC record masks questions about opposition quality. His victories came against Llontop (making his debut), Rongzhu (who missed weight in his previous UFC stint), and Herbert (sporting a 3-5 octagon record). Bonfim represents a clear step up in competition and will test whether Padilla’s success translates against more established opposition.
The fight takes place at the UFC Apex facility, which historically produces different dynamics than arena events. The smaller 25-foot cage accelerates entries and benefits wrestlers who can cut off opponents.
UFC Vegas 111 represents a crucial crossroads for both lightweights. Bonfim seeks to rebound from consecutive setbacks and prove his McKinney knockout reflected genuine contender status rather than a one-time highlight. Padilla aims to validate his undefeated UFC run against a recognized name and continue his ascent through the division.
