Heading into the next Saturday of action, let’s take a look at the updated ESPN top 25 college football rankings as we look ahead to the Week 12 games.
How is this poll made? Football Power Index (FPI) college football rankings and computer prediction model are a measure of team strength that predicts a team’s future performance.
Rankings and predictions are based on 20,000 simulations of a team’s season and games, using a combination of key analytics, including scores to date, quality of opponents, team talent, recruiting, and a team’s schedule.
Teams are slotted not in order of talent like in other rankings, but by a projected point margin per game against an average team on a neutral field.
25. USF
Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 8
Win prediction: 10.2 games
The only Group of Five team to crack the ESPN computer rankings this week, the Bulls looked dominant in a 55-23 win against UTSA, a team the other American favorite, Tulane, couldn’t beat. Now USF is 7-2 and in line to play for the conference championship, but still with a key date against current league leader Navy to come.
24. Auburn
John Reed-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 3
Win prediction: 5.2 games
ESPN critics will cry foul once again at the network’s perceived SEC bias for including a 4-6 team in their top 25 rankings, and with good reason. The network would defend the decision by saying, as they do, that the Tigers would be 11.1 points better than an average opponent, but we would disagree even with that explanation.
23. SMU
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Rankings change: Up 7
Win prediction: 8.7 games
One of four teams tied for first place in the ACC with a 5-1 conference record, the Mustangs predictably had a good day against lowly Boston College, as Kevin Jennings had 3 touchdown passes coming off last week’s big win against Miami.
22. LSU
Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Down 1
Win prediction: 7.0 games
Another one of the ESPN computer’s head-scratching decisions in their weekly rankings, LSU didn’t have enough to get past Alabama on the road in its first game without Brian Kelly, falling to 5-4 in a season everyone would just rather forget.
21. Penn State
Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 5.2 games
Oh yeah, the now 3-6 Nittany Lions are still in the ESPN computer’s top 25, too. Sure, they played undefeated Indiana close down to the wire and nearly got the upset, but there’s really nothing else that warrants this team being remotely close to a position here.
20. Missouri
Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Down 2
Win prediction: 7.7 games
Matt Zollers’ first career start did not go well, going just 7 of 22 passing in a pocket that was under constant assault, but this ended up the first game Missouri wasn’t really competitive in, losing at home to Texas A&M to fall under .500 in SEC competition.
19. Iowa
Jeffrey Becker-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 7.7 games
Mark Gronowski led the Hawkeyes on a statement 93-yard drive to take a very late lead against top-ten ranked Oregon, but for once this defense failed to live up to the moment, allowing the Ducks to get an even later field goal to win. Iowa falls to 4-2 in Big Ten play.
18. Michigan
Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 8.8 games
On a three-game win streak since the loss at USC and off this past weekend, the Wolverines rank among college football’s best rushing offenses and scoring defenses heading into two winnable games against Northwestern and Maryland before returning home against Ohio State in the finale.
17. BYU
Reese Strickland-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Down 3
Win prediction: 10.4 games
Undefeated no more, the Cougars take a notable step backwards in the competitive Big 12 title picture with a head-to-head loss against league favorite Texas Tech, and didn’t look good in the process, not scoring until the fourth quarter and being held to 67 rushing yards and a meager 2.5 yard per touch average.
16. Vanderbilt
Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 9.2 games
It was a close one in Nashville in the first game since Auburn fired Hugh Freeze, playing the Dores close enough to force an overtime, but Diego Pavia did just enough, hitting 76 percent of his throws for 377 yards while running for 112 more and scoring 4 times to move to 8-2, their most wins since 2013.
15. Oklahoma
BRYAN TERRY/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 8.6 games
Off on Saturday, the Sooners are still riding high after the big win at Tennessee last weekend, clutching to playoff contention by their fingernails, but with no margin for error heading into a three-game stretch to finish starting at Alabama next week.
14. Tennessee
Angelina Alcantar/News Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 8.2 games
Idle this past weekend, the Vols sit at three losses and almost certainly out of the College Football Playoff picture, but head into two winnable games against New Mexico State and Florida before the finale against resurgent Vanderbilt.
13. Miami
Jeff Romance-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Down 1
Win prediction: 9.5 games
Carson Beck threw and caught a touchdown pass to help the Hurricanes get back on the winning side in a big victory against Syracuse to improve to 7-2, but with still some work to do winning back the confidence of the playoff selectors the rest of the way.
12. Ole Miss
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 1
Win prediction: 10.6 games
An expected romp for the Rebels in a 49-0 demolition against The Citadel in an early Cupcake Week matchup. Kewan Lacy ran for 3 touchdowns while Trinidad Chambliss threw for 3 more scores, and this defense held the other side to just 23 passing yards. Florida and the Egg Bowl remain for the seemingly playoff-bound Rebs.
11. Texas Tech
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 11.5 games
A dominant performance from this defense and a 121 rushing yard day from Cameron Dickey pushed the Red Raiders definitively into the top spot in the Big 12 standings and one giant leap towards the College Football Playoff heading into two last games against beatable opponents UCF and West Virginia.
10. USC
Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 9.0 games
College football’s ninth-ranked aerial offense led the way as Jayden Maiava had nearly 300 passing yards with 2 touchdowns as the Trojans knocked out Northwestern to remain undefeated at the Coliseum, improving to 7-2 and staying in the midst of the playoff conversation moving deeper into November.
9. Utah
Rob Gray-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Down 2
Win prediction: 9.5 games
Off this past Saturday, the Utes are still well within reach of mattering in the Big 12 title race, averaging 47 points per game in their conference victories. Two road games against Baylor and Kansas, and a home date against Kansas State, await the Utes, who need other movement ahead of them to get to Arlington.
8. Texas
Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 8.8 games
While the Longhorns didn’t play this past weekend, they’re still in position to make some noise near the top of the SEC standings after a statement win over Vanderbilt the week before with a solid 4-1 mark in conference play, but games at Georgia and Texas A&M will define their postseason placement.
7. Texas A&M
Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Rankings change: Up 2
Win prediction: 11.5 games
Marcel Reed passed for 221 yards with 2 touchdowns and the Aggies’ defense put on a show in a key 38-17 win at Missouri, their third-straight road victory, improving to 9-0 for the first time since 1992, to 6-0 in conference play for the first time since 1998, and to 6-0 in the SEC for the first time ever.
6. Georgia
Alan Poizner-Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 10.6 games
After spotting Mississippi State a touchdown on the road, Georgia responded with 38 unanswered points to put away the SEC’s other Bulldogs, as Gunner Stockton had 3 touchdown passes and the ground game added over 300 yards. Now comes a home date against Texas next weekend in a critical conference matchup.
5. Notre Dame
MICHAEL CLUBB/SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 9.7 games
CJ Carr threw 3 touchdown passes and the Irish backs tacked on 3 more, including two from Jeremiyah Love, to smash up outmatched Navy. It’s the Golden Domers’ seventh-straight win since that 0-2 start, and they’re firmly in the College Football Playoff picture provided they won’t mess up going forward, which seems unlikely.
4. Alabama
Gary Cosby Jr.-Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 11.0 games
Bama passed another big test in SEC play against LSU in a 20-9 victory, extending the program’s historic home win streak to 85 games against unranked opponents, winning their eighth-straight game in 2025, and staying perfect in conference play, seemingly headed for a spot in Atlanta.
3. Oregon
Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 10.5 games
As expected, it was an ugly, low-scoring game at Kinnick, and for a minute it looked like the Ducks were in serious trouble, but Dante Moore drove this offense on one last drive over 54 yards in 10 plays to secure the game-winning field goal and improve to 8-1 with challenging games against USC and Washington still to come.
2. Indiana
Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 12.4 games
For a while there, it looked like the Hoosiers were about to lose their undefeated season. That is, until Fernando Mendoza led a gutsy, last-minute drive and located Omar Cooper on a circus catch in the end zone to take out Penn State and stay perfect. Curt Cignetti is now 21-2 in two years at IU.
1. Ohio State
Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images
Rankings change: None
Win prediction: 12.2 games
Almost half of the Buckeyes’ plays either went for a first down or a touchdown in a nice 34-10 victory over two-win Purdue. Julian Sayin once again went over 80 percent throwing the ball and Jeremiah Smith was on the receiving end of 137 yards and a touchdown.
