Andy Schooler previews the second day’s play at the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals, one which features Wimbledon champion and title favourite Jannik Sinner.
Tennis betting tips: ATP Finals
1pt Taylor Fritz to beat Lorenzo Musetti 2-0 at 6/4 (bet365, William Hill, 888sport)
1pt tie-break in Jannik Sinner v Felix Auger-Aliassime at 13/8 (William Hill)
0.5pt first-set tie-break in Sinner v Auger-Aliassime at 7/2 (bet365)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
Lorenzo Musetti v Taylor Fritz (1300 GMT)
It’s fair to say that both of these players would have been relieved to hear of Novak Djokovic’s withdrawal from this tournament.
For Musetti, the Serb’s decision meant a debut at these ATP Finals for him. For Fritz, it has surely enhanced his chances of getting out of this group – one which began with a win for Carlos Alcaraz over Alex de Minaur on Sunday – for he has lost all 11 of his meetings with Djokovic.
Fritz also trails this head-to-head, albeit it’s only 3-2, with Fritz having won the only hardcourt meeting.
As Djokovic highlighted after beating the Italian on Saturday, Musetti has improved significantly on hardcourts this season but this is still a tough ask for him.
He’s had to hot-foot it from Athens on Saturday night to Turin to play on Monday afternoon which despite not being a huge amount of travelling, is some turnaround. While both events are played on faster-than-average hardcourts, it has to be to Musetti’s detriment that Fritz has been practising in Turin for days, whereas he got onto court just 21 hours before this match.
Add in that three-hour final with Djokovic and the fact he’s played every week since the start of the Asian swing in bid to qualify for this event, and I would not be surprised if you see a drop in level from Musetti.
Fritz has the game to take advantage in these conditions – big serve and forehand will both do damage, as he showed with his run to the final here 12 months ago.
While much depends of Musetti’s physical level and how he adapts to the turnaround, I’m prepared to back Fritz to win this in straight sets at 6/4.
Jannik Sinner v Felix Auger-Aliassime (1930 GMT)
These two meet again, just eight days after playing out the Paris Masters final.
In that contest, Auger-Aliassime underlined his strong form – he’s won 22 of his last 27 matches. He lost 6-4 7-6 but at least kept things close with his impressive serve being held throughout, barring the opening game of the match.
It would be wrong to suggest the Canadian came close to winning – he failed to create a single break point – but a similar serving performance here could make some of his odds look big.
His first serve was a massive factor in his run to the final in Paris – it won above 83% of points in every round bar the final (and he still hit 81% in that). Conditions here are quicker – Alcaraz described them as “super fast” on Sunday – which should make it an even greater weapon.
A 10/1 shot for victory, FAA gets a 4.5-game start in the game handicap market which is of possible interest.
However, my play here is for a tie-break to occur – that’s a chunky price at 13/8 given how serve dominated that Paris match. A first-set breaker of 7/2 is also tempting.
There have been tie-breaks in two of the pair’s four hardcourt matches and I would not be surprised to see another here.
I have to admit I am a little worried by how FAA has started previous matches with Sinner.
Regular readers will know we landed a nice winner in that Paris final by backing Sinner to win the first two games.
That’s now occurred in the pair’s last four meetings and it’s a fact that could be preying on Auger-Aliassime’s mind when he steps up to serve for the first time in Turin.
For the record, BoyleSports go 13/5 about a repeat, while bet365 offer 5/2 about FAA being broken in his opening service game.
Posted at 1655 GMT on 09/11/25
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