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Iowa State basketball vs Mississippi State prediction, game preview, 3 things to watch

Iowa State basketball’s TJ Otzelberger on Mississippi State game

After two wins, Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger discusses how his team is feeling entering the Mississippi State game on Nov. 10.

After a couple of tune-up games at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa State men’s basketball is headed up to the Sanford Pentagon for a neutral-site game against Mississippi State in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

The Cyclones (2-0) are coming off of back-to-back one-sided wins over FDU and Grambling State.

Mississippi State (1-0) took care of business in its lone game to date, an 86-62 victory over North Alabama.

The Bulldogs finished 21-13 last season and lost to Baylor in a close opening-round matchup of the NCAA Tournament.

Iowa State-Mississippi State is set to tip off on Monday, Nov. 10, at 7 p.m. CT from the Sanford Pentagon. The game will be televised on ESPNU.

Here are three things to watch for:

Mississippi State guard Josh Hubbard is the Bulldogs’ catalyst

Junior Josh Hubbard has been a game-changer for the Bulldogs since he arrived on campus for the 2023-24 season. The Bulldogs’ point guard packs a big scoring punch in his 6-foot frame, and he’s continued to improve as a playmaker and facilitator. Hubbard led Mississippi State in scoring in each of his first two years and he’s primed to do the same once again.

Hubbard is a three-level scorer and he is coming off of a strong all-around performance in Mississippi State’s season-opening win over North Alabama. He tallied 27 points, eight assists, two steals and had no turnovers.

He is a crafty and consistent scorer, averaging 18.1 points over 70 career appearances. Last year, he had only one game where he scored fewer than 10 points. Throughout his career, he’s been held to single-digit scoring only six times.

How will Iowa State’s starting backcourt of Tamin Lipsey and Killyan Toure, a tandem that takes great pride in their defensive effort, handle containing Hubbard? The Cyclones will face plenty of elite guards this season, especially once they get to conference play, and this Mississippi State All-SEC playmaker will be the first challenge for them.

Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger on rebounding effort

Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger discussed his team’s rebounding effort, especially on offense, in their win over Grambling State.

Iowa State’s T.J. Otzelberger, Mississippi State’s Chris Jans clash in a battle of familiar head coaches, defense-first philosophies

Fairbank, Iowa, native and Loras College graduate Chris Jans gave T.J. Otzelberger his first college coaching gig when he hired him as an assistant on his staff at JUCO Chipola College in 2004.

Otzelberger was previously a varsity high school basketball coach at Burlington Catholic Central in Milwaukee for three years. Otzelberger was at Chipola for a year and continued to climb up the ranks, moving on to the Division I level as an assistant at Iowa State and Washington before getting his first Division I head coach job at South Dakota State, followed by a stint UNLV and a return to the Cyclones.

As for Jans, he moved on to assistant coaching gigs at Illinois State and Wichita State. He eventually found his way to Mississippi State in 2022, after previous head coaching roles in Bowling Green and New Mexico State.

Since Jans’ arrival, the Bulldogs have reached the 20-win mark and made the NCAA Tournament each year despite facing a good amount of roster turnover in between seasons. Before Jans, the Bulldogs had missed the Big Dance for four years.

Defense has been a constant for Jans’ Mississippi State teams. They have ranked in the top 50 for defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. They are currently ranked No. 27 in this early part of the season, and they have finished in the top 30 in two of the last three years.

Mississippi State prides itself on a physical brand of basketball. It plays tough defensively and on the glass. Shawn Jones Jr. is a versatile defender at 6-foot-6. He also had nine rebounds, including six on the offensive glass, in the win over North Alabama.

Quincy Ballard is a 7-foot, 260-pound center who anchors the paint. Jayden Epps (Georgetown) and Achor Achor (Kansas State) are four-star transfers who have earned starting roles.

Newcomers Sergej Macura and Jamarion Davis-Fleming add size and physicality off the bench. Macura, a 6-foot-9, 220-pound forward, had seven points, 12 rebounds and two steals in just 18 minutes of action last time out. Davis-Fleming, a 6-foot-10, 240-pound freshman, adds some rim protection and had two blocks.

Iowa State basketball coach TJ Otzelberger on using different lineups

Iowa State basketball appeared to use many different lineup combinations against Grambling State.

Keep an eye on Iowa State’s rotation, lineups

Iowa State coach T.J. Otzelberger has previously said he feels that the Cyclones can play a 10-man rotation. Lopsided wins over FDU and Grambling State gave the Cyclones opportunities to do that, but will that remain the case in their first key game of the season against Mississippi State?

There are many coaches throughout college basketball who initially express a desire to go deeper into their bench than usual, especially early in the season, before returning to their usual habits of a 7-, 8-, or 9-man rotation. Recent years have shown Otzelberger typically settling on eight-man rotations.

Will Otzelberger continue to go deep into his bench in this game? Who are the first players to come off the bench in a big game? If it’s a closely contested showdown, which lineups will Otzelberger lean on down the stretch? This game will be Iowa State’s first regular-season test, and it’ll be interesting to see how minutes are managed and which lineups are used in key situations.

Iowa State basketball vs Mississippi State prediction

This game will be a grind. It’ll be a revealing game for both teams at this early point of the season. Dating to last season, the Bulldogs have done a good job of taking care of the ball, but if Iowa State’s high-pressure defense can crack Hubbard and the Bulldogs, the Cyclones should be in good position to pull off the win. Iowa State appears to have more depth and a variety of contributors, so edge to the Cyclones. Prediction: Iowa State 75, Mississippi State 70

Eugene Rapay covers Iowa State athletics for the Des Moines Register. Contact Eugene at erapay@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter at @erapay5. Miss St

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