Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti will try to bounce back from opening losses when they square off at the Nitto ATP Finals on Tuesday night.
Musetti leads the head-to-head series 3-1, although he has never defeated De Minaur on a hard court. The Italian prevailed 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 at the 2024 Queen’s Club tournament, in a third-set tiebreaker at the Monte-Carlo Masters this spring, and 6-4, 6-2 a few weeks later in Madrid. De Minaur’s lone victory has come via a 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3 decision at the 2022 Australian Open.
As well as Musetti has played throughout the 2025 campaign, he missed out on direct qualification for the year-end championship–albeit by just a single match. After getting passed by Felix Auger-Aliassime for the No. 8 spot in Paris, Musetti took his talents to the Athens ATP 250 last week. Needing a title, the world No. 9 lost to Novak Djokovic 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 in Saturday’s final. Immediately thereafter, however, Djokovic announced his withdrawal from Turin and Musetti got in as the first alternate.
With only one day off following that two-hour and 59-minute battle against Djokovic, a fatigued Musetti predictably fell to Taylor Fritz 6-3. 6-4 in his Group Jimmy Connors opening match on Monday afternoon.
It does not get much easier against De Minaur. The 26-year-old is coming down the stretch of an impressive season in which he won an ATP 500 title in Washington, D.C. and reached the quarterfinals at each of the two hard-court Grand Slams. The world No. 7 has advanced to at least the quarterfinals at all four of his events during the fall swing. De Minaur lost to Carlos Alcaraz 7-6(5), 6-2 on Sunday, but it was a high-quality match all around.
The home crowd might inspire Musetti to battle his way to a set, but for the most part it looks like De Minaur should have the upper hand. The Australian is by no means an opponent you want to see on the other side of the net when you’re running low on energy.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
