- Alex De Minaur is a -300 favorite vs Lorenzo Musetti in group stage play at the ATP Finals
- Both men lost their opening group stage matches
- See my Musetti vs De Minaur predictions and picks below
The goal for Italy’s Lorenzo Musetti and Australia’s Alex De Minaur is to stay alive.
Each opening the ATP Finals group stage with a loss, they now battle to keep their place in the year-end tourney, with De Minaur pegged as a -300 in the match.
That’s an interesting line, considering Musetti has won three straight head-to-head meetings with De Minaur, including both matches this season.
This one gets underway at 2:30pm ET from Inalpi Arena in Turin, Italy, with the Tennis Channel providing the broadcast coverage.
Musetti vs De Minaur Odds
An upset price for Musetti comes in at +230, who beat De Minaur in the fourth round in Madrid and in the semifinals in Monte Carlo, though both were played on clay.
Sinner is a healthy 3.5-game favorite on the spread, while the scoring line is at 21.5 for this best-of 3 match.
Odds as of Nov 11 at FanDuel. Check out SBD’s FanDuel review to see the available sign-up bonuses.
De Minaur has been the most consistent of the two down the stretch, reaching the quarterfinals in singles at each of the last six tournaments.
He is also the only one of the two that’s won a title this year, taking down Alejandro Fokina in a three-set marathon to win the Citi DC Open.
The one thing he doesn’t have is a win against a marquee player this year. He took world no. 1 Carlos Alcaraz to a first set tiebreak in his group stage opener, only to drop that set and the match in straight sets.
Musetti vs De Minaur H2H Results
Musetti has been a mixed bag heading into Turin, but he’s in danger of ending his season with three losses in a row if he can’t get past the Aussie.
He entered the tournament with a loss to Novak Djokovic in the final of the Hellenic Championship that went the full three sets. That was after a quick exit in his opening match at the Paris Masters.
Musetti had reached the semifinals or better in the previous four tourneys before Paris, but lost winnable matches to Giovanni Perricard (European Open QF), Alejandro Tabilo (Chengdu Open F) and Lerner Tien (China Open QF).
Besides Djokovic, Musetti’s only tier one competition was Russia’s Alexander Zverev, who dispatched him in straight sets at the Erste Bank Open in Vienna. He was beaten by American Taylor Fritz to start in Turin, losing 3-6, 4-6.
Musetti vs De Minaur Picks & Prediction
The real key for each of these guys is to get that all-important first set.
Musetti has lost two of his last three singles matches when losing the opening set on a hard court, with his only win coming against veteran Stan Wawrinka in his run to the finals in Athens.
De Minaur is extremely beatable on hard court when losing the first set — he’s taken the L in six straight tournaments on hard court when falling behind.
Rather than picking who will win that important set and match between two evenly matched combatants, my Musetti vs De Minaur pick will target the total, and Over 21.5 games.
Two of the three head-to-head 3-set matches went the distance, and the only one that didn’t just missed clearing the 21.5 line by two games.
Fighting to survive in Turin, I think we see another match between these two go the distance.
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