College football Week 12 bowl projections: Rivalry games loom large for postseason hopefuls – The Athletic
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With three more weekends left in the regular season, 59 teams have become bowl-eligible, and another 19 can qualify with one more victory. With 82 spots, it’s unlikely a team with a losing record will slide into the postseason this year. Of course, that could change.
There are a few four- and even three-win squads that still have a path to a bowl based on their upcoming schedules, while a few five-win teams are far from assured a postseason trip. Penn State (3-6) nearly upset No. 2 Indiana on Saturday and now needs to sweep its remaining games — at Michigan State, home against Nebraska, at Rutgers — to pick up a postseason invitation, but it’s not far-fetched. Rutgers (5-5) closes out its season at No. 1 Ohio State before hosting Penn State. It’s possible that the season finale could become a winner-take-all matchup for a bowl bid.
For several teams, rivalry games will determine whether they earn a postseason nod. Kentucky (4-5) faces Tennessee Tech this week before traveling to Vanderbilt and Louisville to close out the season. Clemson (4-5) will need to beat either Louisville or South Carolina on the road, coupled with a home win against Furman, to land a bowl berth. Florida State (4-5) could need to beat Florida in the season finale, while it’s possible that only the winner between NC State (5-4) and North Carolina (4-5) goes bowling.
For teams already eligible, now it’s about moving up in their conferences’ pecking order. For instance, the Iowa-Nebraska game on Black Friday could determine which team heads to Tampa or Las Vegas. The Miami-Pittsburgh game on the final weekend could determine which of the two teams heads to the ACC’s top bowl tier (Pop Tarts, Gator, Holiday) and second tier (Pinstripe, Sun, Duke’s Mayo). A Citrus Bowl spot could be at stake in Vanderbilt-Tennessee if neither qualifies for the College Football Playoff.
A few evergreen notes:
This is the second season of the 12-team College Football Playoff. The highest-ranked five conference champions plus the top seven at-large teams qualify for the field.
The four highest-ranked teams earn first-round byes. Those teams will play in the Cotton (Dec. 31), Orange (Jan. 1), Rose (Jan. 1) and Sugar (Dec. 31) bowls on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1. Teams seeded 5-8 will host seeds 9-12 in first-round games on Dec. 19-20. Should the Big Ten and SEC champions earn byes, they will play in the Rose and Sugar bowls, respectively.
The former Pac-12 schools still are under the conference’s old bowl agreements, which are set to expire after the season. Depending on CFP negotiations, those deals could extend by another year. In the meantime, it will be possible to see in-conference matchups in the Alamo, Vegas, Holiday or Sun bowls.
ESPN Events owns the Bahamas Bowl, but the game will move to an undetermined location next month.
Missouri State (6-3) and Delaware (5-4) are in the first year of their transition from the Football Championship Subdivision and are ineligible for a bowl game unless there aren’t enough bowl-eligible teams. Transitional teams receive priority ahead of 5-7 squads with a high Academic Progress Rate (APR).
BowlMatchup
Playoff
Dec. 19, 2025
7 Texas Tech
10 Texas
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
5 Georgia
12 South Florida
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
6 Ole Miss
11 Georgia Tech
Playoff
Dec. 20, 2025
8 Oregon
9 Notre Dame
Cotton
Dec. 31, 2025
3 Indiana
Ole Miss/GT winner
Orange
Jan. 1, 2026
4 Alabama
UGA/USF winner
Rose
Jan. 1, 2026
1 Ohio State
Oregon/ND winner
Sugar
Jan. 1, 2026
2 Texas A&M
TxTech/Texas winner
Fiesta
Jan. 8, 2026
QF winner
QF winner
Peach
Jan. 9, 2026
QF winner
QF winner
Championship
Jan. 19, 2026
SF winner
SF winner
BowlMatchup
LA
Dec. 13, 2025
Pac-12 6 Arizona
MWC 1 San Diego State
Salute to Veterans
Dec. 16, 2025
Sun Belt Coastal Carolina
MAC Buffalo
Cure
Dec. 17, 2025
Sun Belt James Madison
G5/Open Miami (OH)
68 Ventures
Dec. 17, 2025
Sun Belt Troy
Open Kennesaw State
Myrtle Beach
Dec. 19, 2025
Sun Belt Old Dominion
Open UConn
Gasparilla
Dec. 19, 2025
SEC/ACC/AAC Florida State
Open Memphis
Famous Idaho Potato
Dec. 22, 2025
MWC Utah State
MAC Central Michigan
Boca Raton
Dec. 23, 2025
Open Duke
Open Kansas
New Orleans
Dec. 23, 2025
Sun Belt Southern Miss
CUSA Western Kentucky
Frisco
Dec. 23, 2025
G5 North Texas
G5/Open UNLV
Hawai’i
Dec. 24, 2025
MWC Hawaii
American East Carolina
GameAbove Sports
Dec. 26, 2025
Big Ten 8 Minnesota
MAC Western Michigan
Rate
Dec. 26, 2025
Big Ten 7 Northwestern
Big 12 6 TCU
First Responder
Dec. 26, 2025
Open California
Open Baylor
Military
Dec. 27, 2025
American Navy
ACC 8 Wake Forest
Pinstripe
Dec. 27, 2025
Big Ten 6 Penn State
ACC 5-7 Pittsburgh
Fenway
Dec. 27, 2025
ACC 9 NC State
American Temple
Arizona
Dec. 27, 2025
MWC Boise State
MAC 2 Ohio
Pop-Tarts
Dec. 27, 2025
Big 12 3 BYU
ACC 2-4 Virginia
New Mexico
Dec. 27, 2025
MWC New Mexico
Open Washington State
Gator
Dec. 27, 2025
ACC 2-4 Miami
SEC 3-8 LSU
Texas
Dec. 27, 2025
Big 12 4 Iowa State
SEC 3-8 Missouri
Birmingham
Dec. 29, 2025
ACC/SEC/Open North Carolina
SEC/ACC/Open Tulane
Independence
Dec. 30, 2025
Big 12 7 Kansas State
CUSA/Sun Belt Arkansas State
Music City
Dec. 30, 2025
Big Ten 5 Illinois
SEC 3-8 Vanderbilt
Alamo
Dec. 30, 2025
Big 12 2 Houston
Pac-12 2 USC
ReliaQuest
Dec. 31, 2025
Big Ten 3 Iowa
SEC 3-8 Oklahoma
Sun
Dec. 31, 2025
ACC 5-7 SMU
Pac-12 5 Arizona State
Citrus
Dec. 31, 2025
Big Ten 2 Michigan
SEC 2 Tennessee
Las Vegas
Dec. 31, 2025
Pac-12 3 Utah
Big Ten 4 Nebraska
Armed Forces
Jan. 2, 2026
Open Fresno State
American Army
Liberty
Jan. 2, 2026
Big 12 5 Cincinnati
SEC 3-8 Mississippi State
Duke’s Mayo
Jan. 2, 2026
SEC 3-8 Kentucky
ACC 5-7 Clemson
Holiday
Jan. 2, 2026
ACC 2-4 Louisville
Pac-12 4 Washington
Bahamas/TBD
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MAC Toledo
CUSA Jacksonville State
