Before a ball is even kicked in Dublin on Thursday night (7.45pm), the permutations around Ireland’s potential pathway to next year’s World Cup in North America will shift on the outcome of what happens between Armenia and Hungary in Yerevan (5pm).
Ireland are mired in the foothills of Group F, and the gradient of the ascent they will face over their last two games hinges largely on events at the Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium.
The target for Ireland is to finish in the top two spots but, realistically, topping the table looks out of reach. So, the scramble is on for second place, which would earn a spot in the playoffs.
If, at the end of the group, teams are level on points then the tiebreaker metrics used to separate sides will be: goal difference from all games in the group first, followed by goals scored in all games in the group, and then head-to-head record.
Toss it up whatever way you want, should Hungary beat Armenia on Thursday, then Ireland’s drumlin immediately becomes a mountain.
Here are the key numbers before the last two rounds of matches:
World Cup Qualifying Group F
Portugal have 10 points, a goal difference of +7 and have scored 11 goals.
(Remaining fixtures: A v Ireland; H v Armenia)
Hungary have five points, a goal difference of +1 and have scored eight goals.
(Remaining fixtures: A v Armenia; H v Ireland)
Ireland have four points, a goal difference of -1 and have scored four goals.
Ireland’s unconvincing Japan job
(Remaining fixtures: H v Portugal; A v Hungary)
Armenia have three points, a goal difference of -7 and have scored two goals.
(Remaining fixtures: H v Hungary; A v Portugal)
What happens if Hungary beat Armenia?
Hungary would move to eight points, meaning Ireland would need to avoid defeat to Portugal to remain alive in the group. Lose on Thursday in this scenario and it’s all over for Ireland. Sunday’s Budapest game would be a dead rubber.
A draw with Portugal would leave Ireland needing to beat Hungary. That series of results would see Ireland and Hungary both finish on eight points – so goal difference would be used to separate the teams. Currently, Hungary have a goal difference of +1 to Ireland’s -1. Depending on the margin of Hungary’s victory over Armenia, Ireland could be left chasing a sizeable total in Budapest. Put simply, Ireland would have to win by several goals.
Should Ireland beat Portugal, then any margin of victory in Budapest would ensure Heimir Hallgrímsson’s side finish ahead of Hungary in the group. Ireland could also mathematically equal Portugal’s 10-point tally at the top of the table but that would require Roberto Martinez’s outfit to lose at home to Armenia in their last game. Even then, Portugal’s superior goal difference would probably provide them with a significant buffer.
What happens if Hungary and Armenia draw?
Hungary would open a two-point gap on Ireland. But win, lose or draw against Portugal, Ireland would still be in the mix for a top-two finish travelling to Budapest. Beat Hungary by any score and Ireland would finish in the top two. A draw in Yerevan would also put Armenia on the fringes of the qualification picture, though their inferior goal difference would see them remain outsiders.
What happens if Armenia beat Hungary?
Armenia would move to second place in the table with six points, a result that would really throw the group wide open. Should Ireland beat Portugal, then a draw against Hungary in Budapest would probably be enough to secure second place. Portugal are at home to Armenia in their last game. Drawing with Portugal and beating Hungary by any score would almost certainly be enough for Ireland to progress as well.
