Turin sets the stage for the 2025 ATP Finals, where the world’s best clash for season-ending supremacy and bettors hunt for value in every match. Home favorite — and defending champion — Jannik Sinner headlines a loaded field that includes Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, Ben Shelton, Alex de Minaur, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Lorenzo Musetti. Unfortunately, Novak Djokovic decided not to play after winning a title in Athens over the weekend.
The fast indoor conditions at this tournament amplify serves and aggression, meaning each matchup offers unique angles for side, total, and prop bettors looking to close the tennis year on a high note. Let’s get into some picks for Wednesday, November 12.
RELATED: Check out the VSiN picks page for picks and best bets from all of our talented VSiN hosts and analysts!
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts his tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Ben Shelton
Auger-Aliassime is coming off a lopsided loss to Sinner. That match ended with the Italian winning 7-5, 6-1. However, there’s really no reason to overreact when somebody loses to Sinner — especially on an indoor hard court in Italy. With that in mind, I’m not exactly sure why Auger-Aliassime is available at +138 in this one.
Auger-Aliassime was playing much better tennis than Shelton heading into this event. The Canadian went 14-3 in the 17 matches he played between the US Open and the ATP Finals. One of those three losses came against Sinner. Meanwhile, Shelton has lost four of his last seven matches, with some of those defeats coming against David Goffin and Jaume Munar. Auger-Aliassime also happens to be 1-0 against Shelton in his career, beating him in straight sets at Roland Garros in 2024.
I also just think Auger-Aliassime’s game matches up well here. Both of these players are elite servers, but Auger-Aliassime’s baseline game is a little steadier.
Realistically, this match feels like a 50-50 for Auger-Aliassime, at the very least. We’re getting a lot of value here.
Bet: Auger-Aliassime ML (+138)
Alexander Zverev vs. Jannik Sinner
Sinner absolutely pummeled Zverev in Paris, winning 6-0, 6-1 on November 1. However, Zverev wasn’t 100% at that tournament, plus the conditions were a lot slower there. With Zverev being healthier, his serve really should go a long way in making sure this match is a little more competitive.
A lot of people will point to the match in Paris as evidence Sinner will wipe the floor with Zverev. However, let’s not forget that Zverev pushed Sinner to a deciding third set in the Vienna final, and the German had chances to win that match.
This play also doesn’t call for Zverev to do all that much. One set finishing at 7-5 or 7-6 would really make it difficult for this Over to lose, and I think Zverev’s serve is big enough to get him there in at least one of these — if not both. There’s also a lot of pressure on Sinner playing at home, so I can even see the Italian letting the first set slip away.
Bet: Over 19.5 Games (-156)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis Links
VSiN Tennis Betting Splits
Tennis Odds
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
