Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Victor Wembanyama, Magic-Knicks, Cavs-Heat)
A massive 12-game slate takes place in the NBA on Wednesday, Nov. 12, and there are a ton of bets that I’m eyeing from spreads to player props.
It’s been a great start to the week in this column, as Tuesday yielded a 3-1 night, and we’ve pushed the season-long record in my NBA picks to 44-31 (up over four units). It’s a great start, but there’s still a ton of season left to bet on.
While I’m usually pretty player-prop heavy in these picks, I’m actually eyeing two sides and a total for Wednesday’s action, as well as a prop for San Antonio Spurs superstar Victor Wembanyama.
There are a couple of home favorites that I love, as both teams have been dominant in their home arena so far this season.
Let’s dive into the picks for the action on Nov. 12!
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Miami Heat -5.5 (-120) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
The Miami Heat are down Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo once again on Wednesday, but I’m buying them as home favorites against the Cleveland Cavaliers.
This is the front end of a back-to-back for the Cavs, and they have opted to sit Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley for rest in this matchup. That has flipped the odds for this game, moving Miami to a 5.5-point favorite after it was a 7.5-point underdog against the Cavs on Monday.
The Heat ended up winning Monday’s matchup in overtime on a thrilling game-winning tip-in by Andrew Wiggins. That moved the Heat to 7-4 in the 2025-26 season, and they’re 5-0 against the spread and straight up at home, posting an average scoring margin of +12.0 points in those games.
I love the Heat in this matchup, as they’ve played multiple games without Adebayo and Herro and have found a way to win, leaning on Norman Powell, Wiggins and Jaime Jaquez Jr. for offense.
I don’t think Cleveland completely folds on Wednesday, but sitting Mitchell, Garland and Mobley is a sign that the Cavs are content with losing this game. I’ll trust Miami to stay hot at home.
New York Knicks -4.5 (-108) vs. Orlando Magic
There isn’t a better team at home this season than the New York Knicks, who knocked off the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday night and are now 7-0 at home with an average scoring margin of +17.0 points per game in those matchups.
Oh, and the Knicks are 7-0 against the spread at Madison Square Garden as well.
On Wednesday, the Knicks face the Orlando Magic, who are just 5-6 this season and needed a Desmond Bane buzzer beater to knock off the Portland Trail Blazers on Monday. Orlando ranks 20th in the league in net rating and 19th in offensive rating while the Knicks clock in at No. 4 in net rating and No. 3 in offensive rating this season.
Jalen Brunson and company have scored 133 points or more in three games in a row, and the offense is clicking under new head coach Mike Brown. That’s a scary sign for an Orlando team that has been offensively challenged in recent seasons and is just 2-3 against the spread on the road.
Even on a back-to-back, I like the Knicks in this matchup, as they sat Mitchell Robinson on Tuesday, a sign that they may have their team at full strength in this Eastern Conference clash.
Victor Wembanyama 11+ Rebounds (-158)
Victor Wembanyama is off to a great start this season, averaging 25.7 points, 12.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists and 3.9 blocks per game.
Wemby leads the NBA in blocks per game and defensive rebounds per game (11.3) heading into Wednesday’s meeting with the Golden State Warriors. After getting blown out on Tuesday by the Oklahoma City Thunder, the Warriors are in a tough spot on the second night of a back-to-back on Wednesday.
Golden State ranks just 20th in the NBA in rebounding percentage and 25th in offensive rebounding percentage, so Wemby should dominate the glass in this matchup.
The Spurs star has at least 11 rebounds in seven of his 10 games this season and is averaging 19.2 rebound chances per game. He should thrive against a Golden State team that allowed 11 boards to Chet Holmgren on Tuesday.
Phoenix Suns-Dallas Mavericks UNDER 225.5 (-112)
Another Dallas Mavericks game, another chance to bet the UNDER.
Dallas has hit the UNDER in eight of 11 games this season – the highest rate in the NBA – and it ranks dead last in the NBA in offensive rating.
However, the Mavericks have played well on defense, ranking third in the NBA in defensive rating. That makes this team the perfect squad to bet the UNDER on, especially since it has cleared 225.5 points in just three of 11 games in the 2025-26 campaign.
As for the Phoenix Suns side of things, they are 6-5 to the UNDER this season and rank just 16th in the NBA in offensive rating. However, the bigger issue for the Suns is their play on the road, as their offensive rating falls to 112.3, which is 19th in the NBA amongst road teams and would be 23rd in the league overall.
Phoenix also has failed to clear 225.5 points in five of its last six games.
John Collins UNDER 24.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-118)
John Collins got the start in place of Kawhi Leonard on Monday against the Atlanta Hawks, finishing with nine points, seven rebounds, a steal and a block in just over 31 minutes of action.
The veteran forward has been a nice piece for the Clippers this season, averaging 12.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 0.9 assists per game in mainly a bench role. Even with more touches available with Leonard out, I think this line is a little high for Collins against Denver.
Collins is likely going to have to deal with Aaron Gordon in this game, and the Nuggets forward is one of the better defenders at his position in the league. Collins also has just one game all season that he’s cleared this number, scoring 19 points to go with four rebounds and two assists against the Phoenix Suns.
With Kawhi out, he has finished with 22, 18, 25 and 16 PRA in four games. I’ll fade him at this inflated number on Wednesday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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