New Delhi:
Poll strategist Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj – which exit polls said would flop on its electoral debut – had a surpisingly trong start as counting began for the 2025 Bihar election Friday morning, with initial leads putting the party ahead in three seats. The Jan Suraaj is contesting 239 of Bihar’s 243 seats.
The ruling alliance – led by the Bharatiya Janata Party and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United, and including smaller allies like Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party – raced into an early lead, matching unanimous exit poll predictions of a comfortable victory. The opposition alliance – the Mahagathbandhan – the Rashtriya Janata Dal, Congress, and smaller allies – trailed from the start.
Exit polls had given Kishor’s Jan Suraaj a thumbs down; NDTV’s poll of exit polls suggested the party would win only one seat. But it could still play a big role in settling this Bihar election, particularly if it steals critical vote share from the opposition Mahagathbandhan alliance.
One exit poll, Peoples Pulse, predicted the Jan Suraaj could scoop up nearly 10 per cent of the votes – more than the Congress – which would be an excellent return for a party making its election debut.
READ | Prashant Kishor Party’s Vote Share To Beat Congress’: Exit Poll
Crucially, that could be the vote share difference between the competing alliances; Peoples Pulse forecast 46.2 per cent of the votes for the NDA and 37.9 per cent for the opposition.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
The Jan Suraaj was seen as the ‘X factor’ in this election since Prashant Kishor, as a poll strategist, has an enviable track record of orchestrating big-ticket poll victories, having done so at least three times.
Once for Nitish Kumar in the 2015 Bihar election, for Jagan Mohan Reddy and the YSR Congress Party in Andhra Pradesh in 2019, and for Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress in 2021.
Exit polls, though, disagreed. Many gave Kishor’s party zero seats, and Kishor seemed unsurprised, saying before counting began that his party would either perform exceedingly well or crash.
The eastern state voted in a two-phase election on November 6 and 11.
