The Bihar Assembly Election results for 2025 have delivered a decisive blow to Tejashwi Yadav and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). By 10:45 am on November 14, trends indicated the NDA (BJP-JD(U)) surging ahead on over 185 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan (RJD-Congress-Left) appeared to be restricted to around 54 seats.
The overwhelming defeat suggests that the electorate did not just reject the alliance but largely negated its campaign efforts. Even Tejashwi Yadav himself was trailing in his own constituency in early trends.
Here are five primary strategic failures that led to the crushing defeat of the Mahagathbandhan:
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Over-Concentration on Yadav Candidates
The RJD’s decision to field 52 Yadav candidates—a significant increase from the last election and representing approximately 36% of the party’s total candidates (144)—proved to be a major miscalculation.
Reinforced Casteism: This strategy, aimed at solidifying the core Yadav vote bank (14% of the population), instead amplified the RJD’s “casteist” image and revived the memory of “Yadav Raj” among voters.
Alienating Non-Yadavs: This strong Yadav consolidation narrative drove away crucial non-Yadav votes, specifically the upper castes and Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs), who strongly sided with the NDA. The BJP successfully ran a counter-narrative of “RJD’s Yadav Raj” that resonated with the middle class and urban voters.
Undermining Alliance Partners
Tejashwi Yadav’s failure to treat his allies—the Congress, Left parties, and smaller partners—as equals resulted in critical strategic blunders and weakened the coalition’s unity.
RJD-Centric Approach: Seat-sharing disputes and Tejashwi’s RJD-centric approach led to internal friction and weak vote transfers. He branded the alliance’s manifesto as “Tejashwi’s Pledge” and marginalised allies in campaign posters, where Rahul Gandhi’s pictures were notably smaller.
Failed Vote Transfer: This high-handedness fractured the opposition front and presented the NDA as a united, cohesive alternative, ultimately damaging the Mahagathbandhan’s ability to consolidate the anti-NDA vote.
Failure to Provide a Blueprint for Grand Promises
Tejashwi’s campaign was built on massive, populist promises—such as a government job for every household, pension schemes, and reviewing the liquor ban—but he failed to back them up with a concrete execution plan.
Lack of Credibility: The absence of a solid blueprint for funding and implementing the “job for every household” promise led to voter distrust.
Tejashwi repeatedly postponed the release of the plan, stating it would arrive “in the next two days,” but it never materialised, leading voters to view his pledges as hollow and unsubstantiated.
Allowing the ‘Pro-Muslim’ Narrative to Gain Ground
The Mahagathbandhan’s perceived “Muslim-first” image, largely fueled by its opposition, severely damaged its prospects across the state.
Voter Backlash: While the alliance may have successfully consolidated Muslim votes in certain pockets, the overall narrative led to a backlash, even within sections of the Yadav community.
Waqf Controversy: Tejashwi’s promise not to implement the Waqf Bill (which many saw as an appeasement move) was exploited by the BJP, which widely circulated old speeches of Lalu Prasad Yadav opposing the bill, further polarising the electorate against the Mahagathbandhan.
Confused Handling of the Lalu Legacy
Tejashwi’s attempts to navigate his father Lalu Prasad Yadav’s complex legacy resulted in a confused and counterproductive strategy.
Dual Strategy Backfires: While Tejashwi embraced his father’s social justice agenda, he simultaneously sought to distance himself from the “Jungle Raj” image by minimising Lalu’s photo presence on campaign posters. This dual policy was easily attacked by the NDA.
Public Scrutiny: Prime Minister Narendra Modi famously leveraged this confusion, stating that Tejashwi was attempting to hide his father’s “sins,” making the downplaying of Lalu’s image seem less like a generational shift and more like public shame.
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