The outcome will reveal which way India is turning.
By all accounts, the 2025 Bihar assembly election is headed for a nail-biting finish. Small shifts in votes could determine the winner, keeping not just the state but the country on edge. If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance wins this election, it will believe it has recovered from its setback in Uttar Pradesh, the neighbouring Hindi heartland state, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election.
For the opposition – the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in particular – victory will demonstrate its electoral salience in its home state. It will show that the regional parties have deeper roots than often given credit for.
But more than anything else, the result on Bihar’s 243 assembly seats will have a deeper significance for the country. After all, both the contesting alliances, the National Democratic Alliance and the INDIA bloc, have promised Bihar’s voters very different outcomes. While “development” and more jobs may be the overt assurances on either side, choosing one grouping over the other will steer Bihar in very different directions.
Put plainly, if Friday ends with the BJP-Janata Dal (United)-led NDA on a stronger wicket, one kind of Bihar will take shape and if the Rashtriya Janata Dal-Congress-led INDIA bloc wins, it will be a completely different Bihar.
One grouping offers Bihar a chance to belong to a loud, majoritarian idea of India, while the other promises a return to the politics of social justice. The latter must prioritise survival and dignity over the politics of (false) pride and hurt sentiment. The former will go towards proving that faith and nationalism have started to outweigh everything else.
The finer details of both outcomes will also send very different messages to Bihar and the rest of the country.
A polarising campaign
If the BJP does better than the JD(U), or even as well as it, the first reaction among Bihar’s voters would be confusion. Then they would say: ‘Achha, the BJP has finally done it.’ But a current of unease would pass through the country. The NGO Citizens for Peace and Justice (CJP) documented earlier this month just how divisive the Bihar election campaign had become, from BJP leader Giriraj Singh’s “namakharam” speech covertly targeting Muslims, to party minister Nityanand Rai taunting those who wear “reshmi salwar” and “topi” – again, targeting the 17% Muslim population of Bihar.
If the BJP improves its relative performance (like victory margins or success rate), despite contesting on fewer seats, people in Bihar will have to wonder just how its Hindutva push will colour their everyday lives. The Muslims will start bracing for its aggressive brand of nationalism – more Ram Navami processions, more “ghuspaithiya” – “infiltrators” – speeches, more heat of social polarisation, but less light of social cohesion in Bihar.
If the BJP comes up parallel to the JD(U) in the final tally, the latter would face an existential crisis. It is said that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s health is weakening. Now, his party, too, would begin to weaken, maybe even split or splinter.
Promises
However, the BJP’s victory would be seen as a result of its riding to power on the shoulders of Nitish Kumar and his JD(U). Thereafter, once actually in power, it will find it very challenging to govern Bihar. Not only has the party promised 1 crore jobs, mega skill centres, lakhpati didis, benefits for the extremely backward communities, and more, it is also often accused of centralising command in Delhi.
It will be like a déjà vu for Bihar residents, who have experienced the sharp pain of both unfulfilled promises and the power centre shifting from Patna to Delhi. They will not be alone in feeling this pinch – other states, such as Maharashtra, have been complaining about unmet promises, too.
Conversely, the message from the Mahagathbandhan’s win would reverberate across the country differently: it would be that not all parts of the Hindi heartland follow the script dictated by Delhi. The BJP’s losses in Uttar Pradesh, 2024, would then appear as a trend, not a blip.
The mood in Bihar would also be completely different. The first few months would feel like a festival of expectations – especially among its youth. For them, Tejashwi Yadav is the job-wallah, the one leader who talks about naukri, not mandir. But the new government would also inherit bills, and people will demand results – appointment letters, vacancies in government departments, tangible outcomes. Unless promises turn into action, their excitement could morph into frustration. Still, the air in Bihar would feel lighter: there would be chatter about a ‘new Bihar’, where a younger leader is finally taking charge.
Bihar would also feel more like itself, not controlled from outside – teachers would return to protest over salaries, college students would stage demonstrations over the abysmal quality of college buildings, and the RJD’s own grassroots leaders would fire potshots against party honchos sitting in Patna. Like for the BJP, winning the contest would present challenges to the RJD.
What an NDA loss would mean
But it is the parties that would be nervous, not the people.
If the NDA loses and the BJP fares poorly, sure, the party may show brief frustration, but would quickly start badgering its far smaller regional rival, Tejashwi Yadav and the RJD. The national party’s leaders would join the protesting students, teachers, doctors, jeevika didis…. It would not let go of its national swagger.
It would blame caste equations, Muslims, even infiltrators for its loss – but deep down, it would know that Bihar did not respond to its leaders’ hate speeches. Its most electorally significant ally, Nitish Kumar, would start to pale, too, and voters would sadly admit: one man cannot carry a party or a state forever.
If the NDA does not appear to be winning by the middle of Friday morning, the voters of Bihar would begin seeing a deeper meaning to Nitish Kumar’s visit to a temple, gurudwara and mosque soon after voting ended. They would wonder if the Chief Minister wore the cap offered to him at the mosque to dare his national partner – or to keep his own options open.
They would remember the divisive speeches of BJP leaders and note that the JD(U) chief did not participate in spreading such narratives during the campaign. They would remember his pro-woman schemes and policies, and feel a little sorry for themselves – and him. They would wonder if he still has a shot at becoming chief minister of Bihar, with or without the NDA group. After all, in a close contest – as Bihar was surely seen to be – there would be room for him for alliances and allies to shift.
What RJD’s loss would mean
On the other hand, if the RJD loses, it may not be as irrevocable an injury for Tejashwi Yadav’s personal brand – he would still be seen as Naukri Man. Jobs is his new slogan, with which he sought to undercut the Hindutva narrative. He has also reached out beyond Yadavs and Muslims in this election. He is likely to remain the face of Bihar’s future – something that was predicted about him in the last election as well. The still-youthful leader, though now 36, has become a symbol of Bihar’s first serious generational shift in two decades. However, for his party, the loss would be intensely felt – as for the social fabric of Bihar.
This article went live on November fourteenth, two thousand twenty five, at three minutes past eight in the morning.
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