2.55 Cheltenham
With Matata in the field, Jonbon isn’t going to get the easy lead he got 12 months ago, and his jumping can fail him on this track when they go fast, so I’m inclined to take him on.
What with, is the problem, as I think L’Eau Du Sud is a considerably less appetising price at around 4-1 than Jonbon is at 8-11.
He has a half penalty for his Grade 1 novice win at Sandown, and none of his novice form is that exciting, for all he had a good campaign until found wanting in the spring.
On Racing Post Ratings he has the most to find of any in the field, and, while he has age on his side and a trainer who can do little wrong, he’s not for me at that sort of price until he proves he’s up to living with the big boys.
Libberty Hunter, who looked likely to be placed in the Champion Chase in March before falling three out, is the obvious one against Jonbon, but I think Matata is worth another chance despite his disappointing return here last month.
He was well beaten in the end having jumped stickily early, but did run well for a long way, and if he returns to his peak form of last season he’d have a massive chance.
I’ve no idea why he was so far below form last month, but it was a strange time for the yard, as they’d been having plenty of winners beforehand and have had plenty since, but all of their runners at that Cheltenham meeting, some fancied, ran way below expectations.
With a rating of 157, Matata is officially joint-second best in the field, and that rating was 6lb higher after he’d thrashed subsequent Grand Annual runner-up Unexpected Party by ten lengths at Windsor in January, giving the runner-up 10lb.
When beaten a length by Libberty Hunter as a novice here two seasons ago he was conceding 11lb — he’s a high-class horse at his best, and a match for any of these aside from Jonbon.
The 33-1 after the declarations was just silly, but even the 16-1 still available is on the big side, though I will be getting more involved in the ‘betting without’ markets.
Jky: J J Slevin Tnr: Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies
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‘He’s a high-class horse at his best’ – Paul Kealy with three Cheltenham selections for Friday
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